Hercules Battlegrounds Choice Frequency
ItsyaboyStephy05 Posts: 111 ★★
This forum post might be a bit strange, I apologize if that's the case. I get the feeling that the chances of getting Hercules as a champ in battlegrounds is significantly lower than any other champ. I know it sounds like some sort of absurd conspiracy theory, but I've only gotten him once since the start of the beta. It's not because people are banning him either. As soon as I caught on to this, I've started keeping a close eye on it and still, whenever he's not banned, I never get him. I just can't bring myself to believe the odds, you get per deck of seven the choice out of 18 champs in total from a deck that's 27 including bans. I'm not a math guru but that would seem like a 66,67% chance to get him, right? It's probably worth mentioning that he's my top champ as well. It's starting to actually irritate me as the opponent basically gets an extra ban for no reason. Again, I know it sounds insane, but I just can't ignore it anymore. So I'm here now to ask if others have had the same experience with either Hercules or their respective top champ. If anyone has any questions regarding odds, matchups, etcetera, please let me know. I appreciate the help fellas!
You’re thinking too much into it.
for me it’s my torch. Only time I can ever seem to get him is when the opponent has no mystics
If you are banning Hercules, your Hercules will not appear for you to pick
herc is not only champs is good, try choose other
Let's break this down into draft rounds and BG matches. Each draft round has 3 or 5 deck draws. On each deck draw you've got n champs left in your deck and n-1 that aren't the champ you're looking for (let's call it Blade cuz I like Blade), on the next draw in the round, you've got n-1 champs left and n-2 that aren't Blade. So at the end of the round your probability of not seeing Blade is (n - number of draws) / n. For the first overall round, assuming you didn't ban any of your own champs, that gives you a (27-3)/27=89% chance of not seeing Blade. Second round, you've only got 26 champs in your deck, but 5 get drawn so there's a (26-5)/26=81% chance of not seeing Blade in the second round. So the chance of not seeing Blade in the first round or the second round is 89% * 81% = 72% chance of not seeing Blade by the end of the second round, also known as a 28% chance (100% - 72%) chance of seeing Blade in the first two rounds.
Repeating this math for all the drafting rounds and accounting for banning your own champs and drafting first vs second, your best chance of seeing Blade is 61.8% if you draft second and have 6 champs banned from your deck (all 3 of your bans are in your deck and different from your opponent's bans) and your worst chance of seeing Blade is 57.1% if you draft first and don't ban anyone from your own deck. Fun Fact: drafting second increases your chances of seeing a champ by 0.2%.
Moving on to BG matches, let's approximate the chance of seeing any unbanned champ at 60%. So for each match, you won't see 40% of your champs. So after 1 match, there's 40% of your deck (12 champs) that you haven't seen yet. After 2 matches, you still won't have seen about 16% of your deck (3-4 champs). After 3 matches, everyone is expected to still have 1 champ they haven't seen yet. And these are all averages across the whole game, so some people will get lucky and see their champs every other match and a lot of people will have to wait even longer to see their favorite champ.