The new Nexus Crystal *5 dollar Deal*
LeSpicyChip
Member Posts: 1
Hello Kabam Jax! Big fan!!
In the description, you listed the nexus as 20% chance of landing a six star. I was wondering since this is a nexus, does each “roll” have the 20% 20% 20% chance of landing a six star - making it a 48% chance to land one six star champ.
Or
Is it just 20% across the entire opening for the nexus.
In the description, you listed the nexus as 20% chance of landing a six star. I was wondering since this is a nexus, does each “roll” have the 20% 20% 20% chance of landing a six star - making it a 48% chance to land one six star champ.
Or
Is it just 20% across the entire opening for the nexus.
0
Comments
It's like opening 3 crystals and picking one of the three
Each roll is independent of the others
Which would mean a 48.8% chance of a 6*. Which is nice.
Dr. Zola
So say there were 200 champs available, 1/5 chance of first being a 6*, distributed evenly among to he 200 champs, so a 1/1000 chance of a specific 6* in first slot
Next slot if you've already lost one of your 6* from the available does it redistribute the 20% among the now 199 possible 6* pulls or are the odds of another 6* reduced marginally because you've already had a 6* pull and can't take that option again.
There are two possibilities for the Mythic Nexus (and for that matter all multi-rarity Nexus crystals). First, the game can *first* determine if the slot contains a 5* or 6* champion, and then *after* that is determined roll to see which champion of that rarity actually appears, tossing duplicates. Second, the game can precalculate the odds of every single champion of all rarities to appear, and then roll *once* for each slot, tossing duplicates.
Technically speaking only the first option properly implements the crystal odds as stated. If you were to implement the second method, then the odds of each slot being 5* or 6* are no longer constant: if the first slot is a 5* the odds of the second slot being a 5* are slightly lower than 80%, because one possible option has been "depleted." There are slightly fewer ways for the second (and third) slot to be a 5* champ.
To simplify, let's say there were only ten 5* champs and ten 6* champs. The odds of being a 5* champ are 80% and the odds of being a 6* chaamp are 20%, which means the odds of any one particular 5* champ showing up is 8% and the odds of any particular 6* champ showing up are 2%. Suppose the first Nexus slot turns up to be a 5* champ. To fill the second slot there are only nine 5* champs it could be (duplicates would be tossed out) but still ten 6* champs. The weighted odds would now be 72 to 20, which means the odds of the next slot dropping a 5* champ would now be 72/92 ~= 0.78 or 78%.
In actual practice, however, where there are 30 or more possibilities, the odds shift would be relatively small. In this case (one class mythic Nexus), the odds would drop from 80% to 79.5%.
So the short answer is: if the multi-rarity Nexus crystals work the way I think they do, the odds of a 5* champ showing up in each slot is 80% and independent of other slots, and duplicate filtering does not affect the rarity odds. If it works in the weird way that I doubt the devs would design, the cumulative odds of getting 5* or 6* champs is very slightly different than what you'd otherwise calculate, but not by a noticeable amount given the number of champs that are possible.