Arena crystals

@DNA3000
Since it's that time of the year when we need units, could we revisit your arena crystal analysis? Regular vs UC vs TB for units.
Also is there a specific sample size to open for better odds?
Everyone is free to comment obviously,I've just tagged DNA 'cos I know he's been studying the drop rates since 2020.

Comments

laserjohn26

This is not a drop rate question and is a sample size and probability question.

They all have the same drop rate however the smaller the sample size the bigger the risk.

If you open 1 tb arena crystal for 50k and 25 regular arena crystals also spending 50k battlechips you are most likely to get more units in the regular arena crystals. However if you do happen to get units out of the 1 tb crystal you will get many more units than out of the 25 normal arena crystals.

If you were to open 1 billion battlechips worth of each crystal the units per battlechip would be nearly identical. The variance would be microscopic.

So the question is do you feel like gambling?

Mauled

^ this. If you need units and are going to open 100k bc you’re going to have better odds of not getting unlucky by opening 2k crystals.

Essentially the more bc you open the more equal the results will become

A_Fungi

The only actual difference is what level Punisher you can get

Drop rates are all the same, but if you miss on TB crystals, you are going to be massively out

I only open regular ones anymore, misses arent as painful

DNA3000

@DNA3000
Since it's that time of the year when we need units, could we revisit your arena crystal analysis? Regular vs UC vs TB for units.
Also is there a specific sample size to open for better odds?
Everyone is free to comment obviously,I've just tagged DNA 'cos I know he's been studying the drop rates since 2020.

As far as I have been able to tell, the drop odds for arena crystals have not changed over time (nor is there any reason for them to do so). Which means in terms of units, they all have the same long term return rate of dropping units.

However, as the other posters have correctly mentioned, in the short term - meaning, in terms of opening a relatively small amount of crystals - the standard arena crystals have the highest likelyhood of returning an amount of units close to the average. Real random crystals will have a fluctuating rate of return, specifically because they are random. You cannot get the average number of units opening only one crystal. You will either get a lot more than average, or none. Across tens of crystals you're still very likely to have a lot more or a lot less than the average, because one crystal either returns a giant chunk or none. Eventually this tends to even out, but it takes a lot of crystals.

So if you're opening small numbers of crystals (and for our discussion here anything less than "hundreds" is a small number) the higher tier crystals - UC and TB - are more of a gamble than the standard crystals. In the long run they are all going to give you the same amount of units for the same number of battlechips. But it will take millions of battlechips if not hundreds of millions for that to average out. For everyone else, some will get lucky and some will get unlucky.

If you like gambling, you can go for the TB crystals. But if it is more important to you that you not be unlucky, open the normal ones.

Azdef

Thanks guys. Only have 1.5mil battle chips and having seen the returns on gambling with cav crystals,I think I'll stick with the regular ones...if I decide to open them.

winterthur

Pop them. You’ll need gold for rank-ups unless it is overflowing.