The drop rates weren’t changed. You’re just getting unlucky
Without a doubt in my mind im sure they have been changed
Its not like im making this post after opening a single batch and got unlucky these crystals were reliable when and months after i became paragon and were change a couple bg's season ago 50 crystals could get you like 5 refills now you get 0
Just because you believe something is true doesn’t mean it is. I’ve opened hundreds of 4 hour crystals and got plenty, and others when I’ve gotten none. It’s the nature of the RNG beast
The thing about rng is that there is always some sort of consistency it always balances out i wouldnt have made this post if i thought i only pulled the short end of the straw this is something i know for a fact
The R in RNG stands for Random. Which part of the definition of random equals balance?
If you've ever popped open sig stones or t4cc in large quantitys you'll see that the numbers are not too far apart sometimes you might start out and get 6 mutant and just 1 of the other classes and then it progressively balances out what class you get is random but the numbers are hardly so
It would have been easier for you to say "I don't understand RNG".
The drop rates weren’t changed. You’re just getting unlucky
Without a doubt in my mind im sure they have been changed
Its not like im making this post after opening a single batch and got unlucky these crystals were reliable when and months after i became paragon and were change a couple bg's season ago 50 crystals could get you like 5 refills now you get 0
Just because you believe something is true doesn’t mean it is. I’ve opened hundreds of 4 hour crystals and got plenty, and others when I’ve gotten none. It’s the nature of the RNG beast
The thing about rng is that there is always some sort of consistency it always balances out i wouldnt have made this post if i thought i only pulled the short end of the straw this is something i know for a fact
The R in RNG stands for Random. Which part of the definition of random equals balance?
If you've ever popped open sig stones or t4cc in large quantitys you'll see that the numbers are not too far apart sometimes you might start out and get 6 mutant and just 1 of the other classes and then it progressively balances out what class you get is random but the numbers are hardly so
It would have been easier for you to say "I don't understand RNG".
Its literally proven i dont have to convince you of anything thats literally how things work the ignorance is radiating off of you like a turd from a toilet
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
The drop rates weren’t changed. You’re just getting unlucky
Without a doubt in my mind im sure they have been changed
Its not like im making this post after opening a single batch and got unlucky these crystals were reliable when and months after i became paragon and were change a couple bg's season ago 50 crystals could get you like 5 refills now you get 0
Just because you believe something is true doesn’t mean it is. I’ve opened hundreds of 4 hour crystals and got plenty, and others when I’ve gotten none. It’s the nature of the RNG beast
The thing about rng is that there is always some sort of consistency it always balances out i wouldnt have made this post if i thought i only pulled the short end of the straw this is something i know for a fact
The R in RNG stands for Random. Which part of the definition of random equals balance?
If you've ever popped open sig stones or t4cc in large quantitys you'll see that the numbers are not too far apart sometimes you might start out and get 6 mutant and just 1 of the other classes and then it progressively balances out what class you get is random but the numbers are hardly so
It would have been easier for you to say "I don't understand RNG".
Its literally proven i dont have to convince you of anything thats literally how things work the ignorance is radiating off of you like a turd from a toilet
Off of me? You're using words you don't understand. RNG is not balanced. It literally can't be balanced. It's random.
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
And why would we lie when we tell you you're wrong?
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
And why would we lie when we tell you you're wrong?
I know for a fact that you're lying because you cant tell me what happened on my own account
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
And why would we lie when we tell you you're wrong?
I know for a fact that you're lying because you cant tell me what happened on my own account
And you can't tell what happened on my account, or anyone else's account, who has been getting refills just fine
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
And why would we lie when we tell you you're wrong?
I know for a fact that you're lying because you cant tell me what happened on my own account
And you can't tell what happened on my account, or anyone else's account, who has been getting refills just fine
Thats why ive never once said anything about anyone elses account...
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
And why would we lie when we tell you you're wrong?
I know for a fact that you're lying because you cant tell me what happened on my own account
And you can't tell what happened on my account, or anyone else's account, who has been getting refills just fine
Thats why ive never once said anything about anyone elses account...
So you think that Kabam changed the drop rates... just for you?
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
And why would we lie when we tell you you're wrong?
I know for a fact that you're lying because you cant tell me what happened on my own account
And you can't tell what happened on my account, or anyone else's account, who has been getting refills just fine
Thats why ive never once said anything about anyone elses account...
So you think that Kabam changed the drop rates... just for you?
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
Yes, but where's your proof that this isn't what's happening? No screenshots? No spreadsheets? No comparative data at all? All we have to go off of is you saying "my luck sucks more than usual"
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
You're theory would be fine for anything outside of crystal openings. Each crystal in MCOC is it's own instance. Your previous and next opening has no bearing on your current opening. If you've opened 6 crystals, you're not guaranteed one of each class of each. You can open 6 t4cc and get 6 mutant class. You could open 6 and 3 skill and 3 science. That's how RNG works.
Probability doesn't mean what you think it means either. Again, you think you know how RNG works but you don't.
Stop arguing with people in this thread. Learn from what we're saying and move on.
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
Yes, but where's your proof that this isn't what's happening? No screenshots? No spreadsheets? No comparative data at all? All we have to go off of is you saying "my luck sucks more than usual"
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
You're theory would be fine for anything outside of crystal openings. Each crystal in MCOC is it's own instance. Your previous and next opening has no bearing on your current opening. If you've opened 6 crystals, you're not guaranteed one of each class of each. You can open 6 t4cc and get 6 mutant class. You could open 6 and 3 skill and 3 science. That's how RNG works.
Probability doesn't mean what you think it means either. Again, you think you know how RNG works but you don't.
Stop arguing with people in this thread. Learn from what we're saying and move on.
Yet everytime i open i batches the number always break near even so i think "my theory" works here
Like i said rng is random if you open 1 crystal the class you get from that crystal is random if you open 50 or 100 crystals you will see that the numbers are near evenly distributed however the number you got from each class is random
you can open 6 and get 3 skill 3 science but what do you think would happen if you opened 50 or 100 or 200 do you think you would get 100 skill and 100 science? Obviously not.
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
Yes, but where's your proof that this isn't what's happening? No screenshots? No spreadsheets? No comparative data at all? All we have to go off of is you saying "my luck sucks more than usual"
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
Yes, but where's your proof that this isn't what's happening? No screenshots? No spreadsheets? No comparative data at all? All we have to go off of is you saying "my luck sucks more than usual"
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
You're theory would be fine for anything outside of crystal openings. Each crystal in MCOC is it's own instance. Your previous and next opening has no bearing on your current opening. If you've opened 6 crystals, you're not guaranteed one of each class of each. You can open 6 t4cc and get 6 mutant class. You could open 6 and 3 skill and 3 science. That's how RNG works.
Probability doesn't mean what you think it means either. Again, you think you know how RNG works but you don't.
Stop arguing with people in this thread. Learn from what we're saying and move on.
Yet everytime i open i batches the number always break near even so i think "my theory" works here
Like i said rng is random if you open 1 crystal the class you get from that crystal is random if you open 50 or 100 crystals you will see that the numbers are near evenly distributed however the number you got from each class is random
you can open 6 and get 3 skill 3 science but what do you think would happen if you opened 50 or 100 or 200 do you think you would get 100 skill and 100 science? Obviously not.
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
And that's the exact response you should expect from such a big claim with no proof
Why would i lie
You aren't lying. You just don't understand what RNG is.
Yes i know rng means random if i open t4cc the classes i get are random and they will always be random there is no disputing that but im not talking about the class you get im talking about the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed because thats how probability works
That's false (specifically the "the numbers the numbers will be near evenly distributed" part). I don't know the context of your example, but this is why you shouldn't just pick up crumbs from wikipedia and Quora. Without context, even the facts that lead you astray.
Technically what we're talking about here are not probabilities, but probability distributions. The crystal has a probability of generating an energy refill, and that means when you open a number of them, say ten, there is a range of possibilities from zero to ten, each with a probability of occurring. This distribution converges to a normal distribution over sufficiently large numbers of crystals.
People tend to assume they will see the most likely result - the result that usually represents the average result or something close to it - but that's obviously a flawed assumption. If everyone saw the average, the probability distribution wouldn't be a normal curve, it would just be a spike at the average. Someone has to see lower probability events. And in fact in most cases, the highest probability result individually could still be relatively uncommon.
Consider dice. The odds of throwing seven on two six sided dice is six out of thirty six, or about 17%. That means the odds of not seeing seven are about 83%, which is obviously more likely.
Also, while you may read statements that suggest random distributions converge on the statistical averages over time, that's within the context of relative variance. Consider even the example quoted above. The example of ten flips is one more than the average (six, compared to five). The hundred flip example is proportionately closer to the average (57%) but also seven away from the average. The thousand flip example is even closer to the average (54.3%) but also 43 away from the average. With more and more flips the number of heads simultaneously gets closer to the average *percentage* but also farther and farther away from the average *value*.
Over more and more flips you do get closer to the averages in percentage terms, but you also increase the probability of large runs of heads or tails. In the context of crystals, over large numbers of crystals your average return should converge on the statistical odds of the crystal, but over short runs the results you see will include increasingly improbable runs of large or small amounts of any particular drop.
Since each set of coin flips is independent, they are all going to be completely random. Some sets will be close to the statistical average, some dead on the average, but many will be wildly different from the average (because ten is such a small sample size). This is never going to "settle down" because if it did that would mean the coin would have a memory. Incidentally, I thought it was funny that six heads never even came up as a result. So I did it again:
Now it seems like it is the most common result. This is entirely reasonable for a random distribution sampled over these sample sizes. Random is random.
Just like the OP doesn't know if the drop rates have changed, the blatant Kabam Defense Force members don't know if they haven't. The only sensible response here is "there's been no formal announcement" or link to a recent post by a MCOC team member. I, for one, have noticed what the OP is talking about and so have plenty of others.
A response like "do a 10k sample size" is such a gaslight that I cannot imagine how such a person operates in real life.
The OP may be uninformed/ignorant but you KDF members really take the cake.
Just like the OP doesn't know if the drop rates have changed, the blatant Kabam Defense Force members don't know if they haven't. The only sensible response here is "there's been no formal announcement" or link to a recent post by a MCOC team member. I, for one, have noticed what the OP is talking about and so have plenty of others.
A response like "do a 10k sample size" is such a gaslight that I cannot imagine how such a person operates in real life.
The OP may be uninformed/ignorant but you KDF members really take the cake.
Until there's proof, there isn't an argument. I'm not sure what you expect from anyone. We disagree. What response would you like us to make?
Just like the OP doesn't know if the drop rates have changed, the blatant Kabam Defense Force members don't know if they haven't. The only sensible response here is "there's been no formal announcement" or link to a recent post by a MCOC team member. I, for one, have noticed what the OP is talking about and so have plenty of others.
A response like "do a 10k sample size" is such a gaslight that I cannot imagine how such a person operates in real life.
The OP may be uninformed/ignorant but you KDF members really take the cake.
The burden of proof is on the people claiming an otherwise unannounced change. When the evidence being presented is not only unconvincing, but the claimant fails to understand in what way that evidence is deeply flawed, that's an additional credibility gap to overcome.
There's specifically a very long history of people claiming to have observed drop rate changes and being proven false. While it is impossible to prove absolutely that drop rates have not changed, it is possible to prove beyond reasonable doubt that they haven't changed in specific ways with levels of effort within reasonable possibility. When that's been the case and I've personally tackled such claims, those claims are currently batting zero percent.
It would take many, many thousands of crystals to prove that the drop rates of the four hour crystals had not been altered to within, say, a percent. However, the amount of change that would be required for a human to notice an obvious change within dozens or hundreds of crystals is so large it would leave an impossible to ignore signal in statistical tests.
"Plenty of people have noticed" is not evidence, particularly when it comes to statistical events. Plenty of people have noticed things that literally were proven to not be there at all a lot of times.
Just like the OP doesn't know if the drop rates have changed, the blatant Kabam Defense Force members don't know if they haven't. The only sensible response here is "there's been no formal announcement" or link to a recent post by a MCOC team member. I, for one, have noticed what the OP is talking about and so have plenty of others.
A response like "do a 10k sample size" is such a gaslight that I cannot imagine how such a person operates in real life.
The OP may be uninformed/ignorant but you KDF members really take the cake.
It is BEYOND ignorant of you to say anyone of us who are explaining this to you are ignorant or gaslighting you. Especially DNA who took the time to thoughtfully lay out and explain why you're wrong. Just because we all don't feel like explaining basic math and statistics to you doesn't mean you're right.
Also I'm pretty sure kabam has to tell us if they mess with drop rates of anything
Just like the OP doesn't know if the drop rates have changed, the blatant Kabam Defense Force members don't know if they haven't. The only sensible response here is "there's been no formal announcement" or link to a recent post by a MCOC team member. I, for one, have noticed what the OP is talking about and so have plenty of others.
A response like "do a 10k sample size" is such a gaslight that I cannot imagine how such a person operates in real life.
The OP may be uninformed/ignorant but you KDF members really take the cake.
Comments
Ive been telling you guys what has happened then you just turn around and say nuh uh, nope that didnt happen ill just refrain from posting anything even remotely inflammatory in the future
Probability doesn't mean what you think it means either. Again, you think you know how RNG works but you don't.
Stop arguing with people in this thread. Learn from what we're saying and move on.
Like i said rng is random if you open 1 crystal the class you get from that crystal is random if you open 50 or 100 crystals you will see that the numbers are near evenly distributed however the number you got from each class is random
you can open 6 and get 3 skill 3 science but what do you think would happen if you opened 50 or 100 or 200 do you think you would get 100 skill and 100 science? Obviously not.
Technically what we're talking about here are not probabilities, but probability distributions. The crystal has a probability of generating an energy refill, and that means when you open a number of them, say ten, there is a range of possibilities from zero to ten, each with a probability of occurring. This distribution converges to a normal distribution over sufficiently large numbers of crystals.
People tend to assume they will see the most likely result - the result that usually represents the average result or something close to it - but that's obviously a flawed assumption. If everyone saw the average, the probability distribution wouldn't be a normal curve, it would just be a spike at the average. Someone has to see lower probability events. And in fact in most cases, the highest probability result individually could still be relatively uncommon.
Consider dice. The odds of throwing seven on two six sided dice is six out of thirty six, or about 17%. That means the odds of not seeing seven are about 83%, which is obviously more likely.
Also, while you may read statements that suggest random distributions converge on the statistical averages over time, that's within the context of relative variance. Consider even the example quoted above. The example of ten flips is one more than the average (six, compared to five). The hundred flip example is proportionately closer to the average (57%) but also seven away from the average. The thousand flip example is even closer to the average (54.3%) but also 43 away from the average. With more and more flips the number of heads simultaneously gets closer to the average *percentage* but also farther and farther away from the average *value*.
Over more and more flips you do get closer to the averages in percentage terms, but you also increase the probability of large runs of heads or tails. In the context of crystals, over large numbers of crystals your average return should converge on the statistical odds of the crystal, but over short runs the results you see will include increasingly improbable runs of large or small amounts of any particular drop.
Here's ten coin flips, done ten times:
[8, 2]
[3, 7]
[7, 3]
[3, 7]
[7, 3]
[5, 5]
[2, 8]
[7, 3]
[3, 7]
[7, 3]
Since each set of coin flips is independent, they are all going to be completely random. Some sets will be close to the statistical average, some dead on the average, but many will be wildly different from the average (because ten is such a small sample size). This is never going to "settle down" because if it did that would mean the coin would have a memory. Incidentally, I thought it was funny that six heads never even came up as a result. So I did it again:
[6, 4]
[3, 7]
[5, 5]
[4, 6]
[6, 4]
[4, 6]
[5, 5]
[8, 2]
[7, 3]
[6, 4]
Now it seems like it is the most common result. This is entirely reasonable for a random distribution sampled over these sample sizes. Random is random.
A response like "do a 10k sample size" is such a gaslight that I cannot imagine how such a person operates in real life.
The OP may be uninformed/ignorant but you KDF members really take the cake.
There's specifically a very long history of people claiming to have observed drop rate changes and being proven false. While it is impossible to prove absolutely that drop rates have not changed, it is possible to prove beyond reasonable doubt that they haven't changed in specific ways with levels of effort within reasonable possibility. When that's been the case and I've personally tackled such claims, those claims are currently batting zero percent.
It would take many, many thousands of crystals to prove that the drop rates of the four hour crystals had not been altered to within, say, a percent. However, the amount of change that would be required for a human to notice an obvious change within dozens or hundreds of crystals is so large it would leave an impossible to ignore signal in statistical tests.
"Plenty of people have noticed" is not evidence, particularly when it comes to statistical events. Plenty of people have noticed things that literally were proven to not be there at all a lot of times.
Also I'm pretty sure kabam has to tell us if they mess with drop rates of anything