Anyone feel like the arena crystal unit drop rates have been decreased?

Technofloppa117Technofloppa117 Member Posts: 19 ★
in General Discussion
A while back I would get units quite frequently from arena crystals but lately I have had no luck. I believe I have gone about 20-25 arena crystals in a row without units. Let me know if it has been the same for you, or my luck just sucks.

Comments

  • laserjohn26laserjohn26 Member Posts: 1,550 ★★★★★
    The more you open the closer to the average you get. 25 is nothing. I open 500 at a time and even that is a very small sample size. Usually I'm between 1700-2100 units per million bc but over the years have seen a min of 1280 and a max of a little over 2300.
  • Technofloppa117Technofloppa117 Member Posts: 19 ★
    DNA3000 said:

    Technofloppa117 said:

    A while back I would get units quite frequently from arena crystals but lately I have had no luck. I believe I have gone about 20-25 arena crystals in a row without units. Let me know if it has been the same for you, or my luck just sucks.

    I wouldn't even say your luck sucks.



    You're looking at all 2200 of my Uncollected arena crystal openings (I switched to TB crystals after that). The longest stretch of no units was 28, circled in blue (every unit drop is highlighted in red). There are also lots of 20 to 25 stretches of no units. Across lots of openings, it is bound to happen every so often. If you've opened at least six or seven hundred crystals, it is likely to have happened to you eventually.
    That really shows the odds of units popping up, thanks!
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,693 Guardian
    Technofloppa117 said:

    That really shows the odds of units popping up, thanks!

    It shows visually how random drops can bunch up here and go dry there, but in terms of the average drop percentages, the in-game posted odds are 15% chance to get units. Out of 2200 crystals, 214 dropped 75 units and 116 dropped 225 units. That is a total of 340 unit drops out of 2200 crystals or 15.5% drop rate, which is well within the margin for error of 15% drop rate. It also shows the smaller unit drop dropping twice as often as the larger one, which supports the contention that the 15% unit drop rate is composed of 10% small drop and 5% large drop, for all arena crystals.

    This also means the average unit return for arena crystals is 1875 units per one million BC worth. For UC crystals one million BC worth is one hundred crystals, and one hundred crystals should on average drop 100 * 0.10 * 75 + 100 * 0.05 * 225 = 1875 units. Standard crystals have one fifth the units per drop but cost one fifth as much, while TB crystals cost five times as much but drop five times the amount of units per drop.
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