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WTH?is it still April Fool's?
Superdave1966
Posts: 76 ★
So I'm low on revives and won't use 1 on tb event quest atm.
I came up short twice on the boss in 2.2 after being left with little health by iron man infinity war.
I was low on health so I decided to start preparing to do my masters loadouts.
Health filled up so I went back to 2.2.
No iron man infinity war!
I checked the rest of the quest and there seemed to be other champs changed so I had a look at the previous quests thinking I had got mixed up with a different quest,but still no imiw!
Even stranger on the paths I had supposedly completed were a bunch of champs I have not fought today.
This has to be another candidate for weirdest glitch ever.
Btw has anyone else opened more paragon crystals without pulling a 7* than me ?I've pulled 323 no 7* and only 12 6*.all the 6* were after crystal number 238.
Kabam seems to like winding up mathematicians,Stephen hawking and the like by sending out their "crystal spin system" template email to assure us that a 1% drop doesn't mean you will get a 7* every 100 crystals.
Sorry kabam but that is exactly what it means.i know you think you're gods now but that doesn't mean you can decide to change basic math.
I came up short twice on the boss in 2.2 after being left with little health by iron man infinity war.
I was low on health so I decided to start preparing to do my masters loadouts.
Health filled up so I went back to 2.2.
No iron man infinity war!
I checked the rest of the quest and there seemed to be other champs changed so I had a look at the previous quests thinking I had got mixed up with a different quest,but still no imiw!
Even stranger on the paths I had supposedly completed were a bunch of champs I have not fought today.
This has to be another candidate for weirdest glitch ever.
Btw has anyone else opened more paragon crystals without pulling a 7* than me ?I've pulled 323 no 7* and only 12 6*.all the 6* were after crystal number 238.
Kabam seems to like winding up mathematicians,Stephen hawking and the like by sending out their "crystal spin system" template email to assure us that a 1% drop doesn't mean you will get a 7* every 100 crystals.
Sorry kabam but that is exactly what it means.i know you think you're gods now but that doesn't mean you can decide to change basic math.
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Comments
My last math class was high school the year Taylor swift was born. What's 1 of 2? More than 1% I think.
Your lucky pull has nothing to do with other people's accounts getting sod all.probably failed maths because you missed the point.
And they would still be a waste of money!
Haters gonna hate hate
1% of 100 is 1 so to use a percentage to advertise the likelihood of getting a 7* literally means 1 In every 100 crystals.
My father was a racehorse trainer so I spent a lot of my life at racecourses so I guess I do know how odds work and paragon crystals don't say "drop rates 100-1 ,even though it would mean pretty much the same thing except a percentage should be more reliable.
Try studying Newton's quincunx and learn how probability tallies with percentages.
To advertise a 1% drop means it should be thereabouts whatever way most of the world looks at it.i certainly shouldn't still be waiting for my first 7* drop from 1 after now 324 paragon crystals.and 12 x 6* is way off 8% too.8% would be 26 x6* and a juicy 7000 7* shards as I have nearly all basic 6*
Anyway I heard there's a guy on another thread arguing that black is white,sounds like he could use your skills
(tried pulling them into one of the other threads conversations, guess it just needs explanation here too)
But I’ll follow up up their horse racing logic…
A certain horse seems to always go off at 4-1 odds.
His first 3 races, the horse loses.
On his 4th race, I dump all my crypto, gold, house title, etc, and put it ALL on that horse, because the world's teachings on odds all say that he is guaranteed to win that 4th race of his. 😀
(yes, I see that somehow there are saying a 1% chance is NOT the same as saying 100-1 odds. But basically, YES, it does mean that)
It is on each, individual, instance. Not cumulative.
Odds are similar to percentage but not in a horse racing way,those odds are made up by the bookie as the amount they are willing to pay you,worked out by the horses chance of winning,but so the horse actually has less of a chance than its odds.
Seems like kabam.are the bookie!
Odds in the mathematical sense mean 100 to 1 is 1 in every hundred, the same way as a percentage is worked out.its a done deal,not a gamble.if you don't get roughly 1 7* in 100 paragon crystals,then the drop rate I'm afraid is just Nigel,nothing else.the drop rate of paragon crystals on my account is 0% atm.if I pull 1 tomorrow the drop rate for me is 0.325% and it won't become 1% unless I draw 3 more before I reach 400 crystals or 4 more by 500 paragon crystals.
Then I came into a little bit of money and started to spend more,nothing ridiculous, and seemed to mainly get what i wanted reasonably cheap.
Then there was a top card in my element which I had already complained hadn't been released before as there was one In both other elements for nearly a year.i don't know if that was relevant but I had really bad luck,had to empty 2 ticket boxes costing me over £200.ever since then I just don't get luck like I used to,if I want a card I generally have to empty at least 1 box of tickets.
Here in mcoc was similar but I hadn't considered an algorithm,but it would make sense.i never spent much,then got sacked in to a few daily specials.
Decided I wanted weapon x a while ago so bought all the offers.this last time I had a bunch of units saved and got knull from the titan crystal,but I had wanted a newer champ.near the end I decided to buy my way to another Titan.stupid because I had already predicted the outcome.Jabari panther.nearly quit.
I also hadn't really factored an algorithm into free and grinded for crystals.surely to get someone to spend there needs to be a sweetener here and there?I got my 7* nightcrawler today.i don't need to buy another daily special,and there hasn't been anything to keep me interested.
Already mentioned previously, but for completeness sake ask your father if a horse is posted with 22-1 odds and you see it lose 21 times, you can make a billion dollars by betting everything you have on the next race, because it is guaranteed to win.
This is also why even if you decide to throw out proper statistics, it is *impossible* for Kabam to rig the crystals to guarantee everyone sees a one in a hundred rate, even if they wanted to, without creating other problems. Imagine someone gets lucky and gets two 7* champs in a row, which does happen. The only way to average out to one in a hundred would be for someone else to not see a 7* champ in a hundred crystals for the average to return to one in a hundred. But then that player would complain they didn't see a one in a hundred drop and they would have no idea they were seeing that to counterbalance someone else's good luck.
The only way for everyone to see *at least* one in a hundred is if the actual drop rate is a lot higher than the actual posted drop odds, which is nonsensical.
Also, I've taught statistics. I have a pretty sizeable math background from both an engineering degree and using math professionally. I've never heard of "Newton's quincunx" in the context of statistical calculation. Sounds like it comes from his alchemy work, or something someone just made up to sound smart and unGoogleable.
Googled!