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We apologize for the inconvenience.
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7* typing crystal odds
spiderhalk
Posts: 1
Does anybody understand the crystal odds when it comes to champion types. Out of my first 15ish 7* crystals I had gotten no tech champs out of any of the crystals. Now my last 4 7* pulls (excluding 1 mystic dupe) have been tech champs. Just wondering if there is an explanation
1
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Ok here's the deal, each class has a chance of 16.67%, While cosmic class has a slightly lower chance of 16.65%
(as an example, don’t want to go look at who all is in whichever crystal you are asking about..)
If there happens to be twice as many SCIENCE champs as there are TECH champs in a particular crystal, then yes, getting someone from the SCIENCE class will have TWICE AS MUCH ODDS as getting someone from the TECH class would.
So yes, a crystal can have mismatched CLASS ODDS.
@Shadow_Shooter ,
But as for INDIVIDUAL CHAMPS, then each champ has the SAME odds as any other champ, for Basic Crystals or (ie, 15,000 shard) Featured crystals.
(*not talking about Champ-Specific Featured crystals where that certain champ has a set/increased odds vs the rest of the pool)
https://help.kabamsupport.com/hc/en-us/articles/360052575131-I-Do-Not-Like-What-I-Got-in-My-Crystal-s
After 13 or 14 crystals opened, i did not have any technology champion in my rooster, but until i reached to 20 x7* opened crystals, i received Guillotine 2009 twice, Guardian and Iron Man. Haha!
2. It can be difficult, after the fact, to actually calculate the odds of a particular sequence showing up, because people "reverse engineer" sequences after seeing them to make them seem more unusual or significant. For example, I don't have anything as extreme as yours, but in my 7* pulls I do have this sequence:
13 pulls with no tech, then two techs in a row. If you directly calculate the odds of this happening, you probably get something like one in 385. But really, that's just me looking over 94 pulls and finding something that sounds interesting after the fact. Here are all of my pulls, and I'll even color code them:
Stare long enough, and you'll see all sorts of patterns. In fact, this set of crystal pulls seems even less random than mine:
Only, those aren't actually crystal pulls. They are actually just a sequence of random numbers pulled from random.org, an internet accessible random number source that uses atmospheric noise to produce their random numbers. There's no computer algorithmic pRNG involved. I just converted those random numbers into classes for display purposes. Does it look random? The original source is about as random as random gets. It does contain a six in a row sequence of mutants, which my own data lacks. The naive odds against are 7776 to 1 for six mutants, and 1296 to 1 for any six in a row. And here they are showing up in a sequence of 94 "drops" generated by atmospheric random noise.
Out of all the 6* champs in the basic pool, two of the last ones that I pulled outside of the new champs added to the pull were Superior Iron Man and Iron Patriot. I didn't pull either from any 6* crystal until just last year. If Kabam is weighting champs, then those are the rare ones.
Also:
1. Kabam explicitly states that unless otherwise specified (for example in featured crystals), no particular champ is any more or less likely to drop from a champion crystal. They've stated this literally dozens of times publicly, and it is specified in their knowledgebase article on crystal odds: https://help.kabamsupport.com/hc/en-us/articles/360052575131-I-Do-Not-Like-What-I-Got-in-My-Crystal-s
To quote:
MISCONCEPTIONS
We strongly believe in keeping The Contest fair for all of our players and as such:
- There are no specific drop rates for individuals.
- Drop rates are not affected by how much money is spent in the game.
- Specific Champions do not have a higher drop rate than any other unless otherwise noted in the drop rates on the crystal.
2. While it is impossible to prove that champion drop odds are exactly equal, it is possible to debunk specific claims of inequality. Where such claims have been made with specificity, they have always either been consistent with random drops, or demonstrably proven false. This has happened many times in the past, and not only by me. In a couple cases in the past drop odds were crowd sourced and determined to be within the bounds of random chance with none of the skew some players accused the crystal of having. I also seem to recall Kabam releasing some crystal opening data not long ago to debunk one of these claims, but it currently escapes my memory when and where that was.
People are going to believe what they want to believe. But the overwhelming amount of evidence is the crystals are random, and random in the manner Kabam describes. And to the extent that they might not be random, the difference has to be so small so as to have escaped all of the analysis done on them, which means the difference has to be so small no human could ever claim to have observed them with their own eyes without performing a detailed data analysis on millions of crystals. The difference has to be small enough that no player will likely ever open enough crystals in their own account to prove it exists.
I've had instances of looking for a champ, going through featureds, then basics, then nexus and not pulling the champ I was hoping for. Then, I pull that champ in back to back crystals. We see instances of these much less than when someone pulls 2 SIMs in a row.
Lucky paws, holding your device upside down, Pep method, telling a random friend to tap the screen...all in the hopes that the 1/275 chance to pull the champ you're looking for is gonna happen. Gotta love it.