I don't know if I should flex this guy or be bummed.
The same as any other specific combination
The odds of pulling any champ is 1/18 so roughly 5.6% chance you'll get the champ you want. These odds are repeated each and every time you spin the crystal. Now, the probability that you pull the same champ on 4 consecutive spins is 1 in 18 to the 4th power or 0.00000952598. Impressive.
The odds of pulling any champ is 1/18 so roughly 5.6% chance you'll get the champ you want. These odds are repeated each and every time you spin the crystal. Now, the probability that you pull the same champ on 4 consecutive spins is 1 in 18 to the 4th power or 0.00000952598. Impressive. As forumer states above, it is actually (1/18)^3, not (1/18)^4.When in doubt in statistics, revert to first principles. How many possible combinations exist for opening four Titan crystals, each with eighteen possible drop options? That's 18x18x18x18 = 104976.Out of all those sequences, how many have four of the same champ? Exactly 18. For each drop option in the crystal, there's the possibility of pulling four of those.So the odds of pulling four of the same champ are 18 in 104976, or one in 104976/18 = 5832, or 1/5832 ~= 0.00017, or 0.017%.This is a common statistical mistake, and usually once people see the math they realize its just a small error. But I once got into an argument with someone about this, who insisted that his interpretation of getting six in a row (in that particular conversation) was (1/x)^6, not (1/x)^5. So I asked him if the odds of three in a row were (1/x)^3 and he said yes. And then I asked him if the odds of two in a row were (1/x)^2. And he actually didn't see the train coming along the tracks when I said, so then the odds of getting one in a row are (1/x)^1?In this context, that would be saying the odds of getting one champ in a row are one in eighteen. Meaning the odds of getting a champ when you spin one crystal are one in eighteen, and the odds therefore of not getting a champ at all when you spin the crystal is seventeen out of eighteen.