Is Statistics To Get A 7-Star Champion Shared Between Crystals?

Onurre2Onurre2 Member Posts: 212 ★★★
in General Discussion
I know this is an odd question but looking at the math, it ain't mathing.

I opened like 120 Valiant Featured Crystals(3% chance to a get a 7 star). I bought BRB and Enchantress pre-release crystals from the store with money, I bought them from black iso market when their pre-release bundles came out, I bought their crystals when they came to arena like right now going on with Enchantress. Out of these 120 crystals that has 3% chance for a 7 star, I only got 1 7 star champion.

Looking at the Higher Further Faster event, I opened 111 crystals, those magnetron crystals are paragon crystals and have 1.50% chance to drop a 7 star. Out of 111 I got 3 7 star champs.

And 2 of these 7-star champions almost came back to back. I opened 40 valiant crystals (all from BRB pre-release and black iso and store crystals) I got 0 7 stars, rigth after that I got a 7 star from 5 magnetron crystals.

After I failed to get a 7 star from another 64 valiant crystals (All of them were Enchantress pre-release bundles) , I got another 7 star from popping 4 magnetron crystals.

These total 9 magnetron crystal were opened in a week, they were back to back from the events and the store dailies.

TL;DR

The feeling I got from this is, I get really close statistically (Taking the 3% at face value and thinking I'll get one from 50 crystals for sure) to get a 7 star from the valiant crystals and when I open a paragon magnetron crystal, that statistics just carry over to this crystal, and I get a 7 star from this paragon crystal instead of the valiant one and the statistics just reset for valiant crystals.

TL;DR ENDS

Looking at the total,1 from 120 Valiant crystals (3%), 3 from 111 paragon crystals (1.50%), so 4 from 231 crystals.

Am I the unluckiest man on earth? I'm not complaining about RNG like don't get me wrong. I spent more than 600$ in less than 2 weeks and I don't have a problem with spending. You can get unlucky but the coincidence side of this makes me wonder. Getting super unlucky with valiant crystals and super lucky with paragon.

Comments

  • captain_rogerscaptain_rogers Member Posts: 10,137 ★★★★★
    You shouldn't be buying featured crystals, no matter how much spare money you got, Lol.
  • TrubluMateTrubluMate Member Posts: 381 ★★★
    That’s unfortunately how randomness works.

    There are people on the other end of the spectrum that seem to have amazing luck.

    But every time you open a crystal, the odds apply to that crystal only. If Kabam were to release the overall statistics of crystal openings, the statistics would likely be close to the reported drop rates, but even then there can be outliers even in large sample sizes.

    Anyway @DNA3000 is the stats guy and can probably provide an explanation that humbles my poorly worded answer.

  • NONYABIZZNONYABIZZ Member Posts: 659 ★★★
    I didn't get any 7* from the magnetron crystal unfortunately 😔
  • FurrymoosenFurrymoosen Member Posts: 4,542 ★★★★★
    edited August 30
    You can't look at your own math and expect it to line up. Crystal drop rates are not set for individual user experience, but across the entire player base. The drop rates are accurate according to X crystals being opened across all players. So out of every 100 of those crystals opened by all players, 3 (or 1.5) players will receive a 7*. There is no guarantee for an individual, but it is guaranteed across however many crystals Kabam has used to determine the odds. It is random for the player experience, but guaranteed across the whole of the game. Essentially, anytime you open a crystal you're competing with other players for the game client to land on you as the lucky recipient of a 7* champion.
  • MalchaeisMalchaeis Member Posts: 258 ★★
    The way I've always looked at it (stupidly enough), imagine standing in front of a very tall plinko board with 100 slots at the bottom. You own 1 slot. For a 1% chance they drop 1 plinko chip. As it bounces down, hitting all the different pegs, changing direction constantly and eventually landing in a slot.(not yours likely). A 3% chance they drop 3 chips etc. Your chance of winning doesn't increase with more crystals opened for plinko chips cause you always have the same number of chips dropped per chance. More crystals just means more tries to win. Some people just have more luck that day.
  • BlackTuranBlackTuran Member Posts: 1,024 ★★★★
    If you go to the magnetron 7 star count threads, there are people saying they got 0 7 stars from 160 crystals, while others like you and me got 3 or more from 100. It’s all random
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,841 Guardian
    Onurre2 said:

    Am I the unluckiest man on earth? I'm not complaining about RNG like don't get me wrong. I spent more than 600$ in less than 2 weeks and I don't have a problem with spending. You can get unlucky but the coincidence side of this makes me wonder. Getting super unlucky with valiant crystals and super lucky with paragon.

    First, let's see how lucky/unlucky you actually were. You say out of 120 Valiant featured crystals with 3% chance to drop a 7* champ, you got one. And out of 111 Magnetron crystals with 1.5% chance to drop a 7* champion, you got three. What are the odds of each of those happening?

    Well, the odds of getting one 7* drop out of 120 Valiant featured crystals is about 9.6%, or about one in 10.4 chance. That's not super unlucky. Meanwhile the odds of getting three 7* champs from 111 Magnetron crystals is 14.6% or slightly better than one in seven.

    So you were somewhat unlucky with Valiant featureds, and somewhat lucky with Magnetrons. Nothing wildly out of the ordinary. Now what about the order in which they happened, is that weird? Like pulling two 7* champs back to back?

    This is also not terribly weird. Consider this. Let's imagine there's a crystal with a one in 100 (1%) chance to drop a 7* champion, and we let thousands and thousands of players open a hundred of them. The odds of getting two 7* champs are about 18.5%. So out of a thousand players, 185 of them on average will pull two. Random chance says those two pulls should come anywhere in that sequence of 100 crystals with no preference. There are 4950 different ways (orders) to pull two 7* champs out of 100 crystals. In 99 of those different ways, the pulls are back to back (there's the sequence where the first one and the second one are 7* champs, then the second and third, the third and fourth, and so on up to 99th and 100th - 99 different possibilities). 99 out of 4950 means 99/4950 = 0.02 or 2%. In 2% of all cases where a player pulls two 7* champs from this crystal, they will pull them back to back. More will pull them within one skip of each other, and two skips of each other. The odds that those two pulls will be "close" together are actually not all that bad. Of the 185 players in our example above, about four of them will pull back to back, and another three or four will pull within one skip of each other.

    So you were not "super unlucky" and then "super lucky" you were just kinda unlucky and then kinda lucky, and even your back to back pulls were not wildly unlikely. Its going to happen to someone - many someones.

    Last thing: what about the idea that the statistics "carry over" from one crystal to another, or change based on other things you do or other crystals you open? That's not how the random generator works. Remember, you're just one player. There are literally thousands of players opening crystals at the same time as you. Between when you open a crystal and when you open another crystal, there were probably hundreds or thousands of other crystals opened in between. If the random generator had any sort of "memory" (it doesn't) and was skewing drops in one way or the other, you still wouldn't see it, because the "better" drops you should have gotten after the worse drops you got would have gone to someone else anyway.
  • Onurre2Onurre2 Member Posts: 212 ★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Onurre2 said:

    Am I the unluckiest man on earth? I'm not complaining about RNG like don't get me wrong. I spent more than 600$ in less than 2 weeks and I don't have a problem with spending. You can get unlucky but the coincidence side of this makes me wonder. Getting super unlucky with valiant crystals and super lucky with paragon.

    First, let's see how lucky/unlucky you actually were. You say out of 120 Valiant featured crystals with 3% chance to drop a 7* champ, you got one. And out of 111 Magnetron crystals with 1.5% chance to drop a 7* champion, you got three. What are the odds of each of those happening?

    Well, the odds of getting one 7* drop out of 120 Valiant featured crystals is about 9.6%, or about one in 10.4 chance. That's not super unlucky. Meanwhile the odds of getting three 7* champs from 111 Magnetron crystals is 14.6% or slightly better than one in seven.

    So you were somewhat unlucky with Valiant featureds, and somewhat lucky with Magnetrons. Nothing wildly out of the ordinary. Now what about the order in which they happened, is that weird? Like pulling two 7* champs back to back?

    This is also not terribly weird. Consider this. Let's imagine there's a crystal with a one in 100 (1%) chance to drop a 7* champion, and we let thousands and thousands of players open a hundred of them. The odds of getting two 7* champs are about 18.5%. So out of a thousand players, 185 of them on average will pull two. Random chance says those two pulls should come anywhere in that sequence of 100 crystals with no preference. There are 4950 different ways (orders) to pull two 7* champs out of 100 crystals. In 99 of those different ways, the pulls are back to back (there's the sequence where the first one and the second one are 7* champs, then the second and third, the third and fourth, and so on up to 99th and 100th - 99 different possibilities). 99 out of 4950 means 99/4950 = 0.02 or 2%. In 2% of all cases where a player pulls two 7* champs from this crystal, they will pull them back to back. More will pull them within one skip of each other, and two skips of each other. The odds that those two pulls will be "close" together are actually not all that bad. Of the 185 players in our example above, about four of them will pull back to back, and another three or four will pull within one skip of each other.

    So you were not "super unlucky" and then "super lucky" you were just kinda unlucky and then kinda lucky, and even your back to back pulls were not wildly unlikely. Its going to happen to someone - many someones.

    Last thing: what about the idea that the statistics "carry over" from one crystal to another, or change based on other things you do or other crystals you open? That's not how the random generator works. Remember, you're just one player. There are literally thousands of players opening crystals at the same time as you. Between when you open a crystal and when you open another crystal, there were probably hundreds or thousands of other crystals opened in between. If the random generator had any sort of "memory" (it doesn't) and was skewing drops in one way or the other, you still wouldn't see it, because the "better" drops you should have gotten after the worse drops you got would have gone to someone else anyway.
    Very clear, thank you :smile:
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