**KNOWN SPRING OF SORROW ISSUE**

We noticed a number of the Spring of Sorrow objectives aren't working properly, we are investigating and currently working on a potential solution.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

We noticed a number of the Spring of Sorrow objectives aren't working properly, we are investigating and currently working on a potential solution.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

Options

# First time ever..

This discussion has been closed.

## Comments

7,033431★★★Actually, he is correct. This is a common misunderstanding. You are confusing the fact that each flip is an independent event (50% each time) vs calculating the odds of a certain result over a certain number of occurrences (coin flips in this example).

Each coin flip is 50% heads or tails. So if you were to ask "I'm flipping a coin, what are my odds of getting a tails?" The answer would be 50% (ignoring slight differences for weight distribution between the 2 sides). If you were to do it again and ask the same thing, the answer would again be 50%. And a third time, and a fourth time, etc. etc. But before you flip any coins, if you were to ask "What are my odds of getting 2 heads total on my next 2 coin flips?" Then the answer is indeed 25% (.50 * .50)

And to use your example, yes, before you started flipping a coin, if you were to ask "what are the odds of getting 10 heads on my next 10 coin flips?" The answer would be .000976563. Even though each action is independent of the one before it, before you start flipping, the odds of getting heads every time over 10 flips are not 50%. If you were to ask "what are the odds of getting 15 heads on my next 15 coin flips?" The answer would be .0000305.

But don't take my word for it. There are plenty of calculators that will calculate the odds (note, they don't all just spit out "50%" every time):

http://calculator.tutorvista.com/coin-toss-probability-calculator.html