# Arena Crystal vs Uncollected Arena Crystal

DiablosUltimate
Posts:

**1,021**★★★
Can anyone with deeper understanding of statistic than I have (which is none) tell me if any one of these two have bigger chance to drop units?

Is there a difference between 5 shots at 15% and 1 shot at 15%, or should it even out?

Is there a difference between 5 shots at 15% and 1 shot at 15%, or should it even out?

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## Comments

2,972★★★★1,781★★★★613★★★8,315★★★★★1,021★★★635★★8,860★★★★★529★★Try popping ten or more at a time

8,315★★★★★586★★★238If you’re really good at saving tons of crystals as well really good saving your battlechips then uncollected arena crystals suit your best.

If you’re not good enough to safe crystals then the normal arena crystals suit your better for now and I said “for now” in meaning as in temporary until you’re getting good at saving .

It takes me 3-4 days to reach 100k battlechips, just so you know so you can have an estimate time to reach 1million or so but that’s just because of pure active grinding.

For those that is relaxed arena personnel then maybe a week to reach 100k?

26★So how is the probability better. Let's consider this example, if you had a 1 out of 10 chance of winning an amount, would you rather have one try at $100 or 10 tries for $10? You see you are more likely to get something for 10 tries rather than the one try. Although if you get likely you could get $100 but chances are low.

You have more opportunities to get lucky with more tries. So if you really want 5* Punisher then you can only get him from uncollected, otherwise if you are after units then go for regular b/c you have a better chance of getting something instead of nothing.

1,906★★★★★8,860★★★★★better or worseper se, it’s the variance that changes.Comparing 50k battlechips worth of crystals: If you buy 1 TB arena Crystal then you have a much higher variance, meaning you get 0 units, 375 units or 1125 units. You have quite a high risk, but high reward. You could get the maximum units, or you could get 0.

But if you buy 25 normal crystals, you have a much lower variance, so you’re more likely to tend towards the mean. You’re much less likely to get 0 units, but equally you’re much less likely to get max units from 25 different crystals. It means you have a lower risk, and you’re more likely to come away with something.

Overall, you have the same odds when stretched over a lot of crystals. So after opening enough crystals, your amount of units from both will tend towards the mean (I.e. the same amount), but the fewer crystals you’re opening, the further from the mean your TB arena Crystal amount of units will be. Whether that’s above or below the mean.

Again, if you’re aiming to get *some* units, then yeah you’ll want to go for the 2k ones. But going for units in general, neither is better or worse. Over the long run the odds will balance out whatever you go for

So neither is better, it’s just risk vs reward

8,028Guardian