Arena Crystal vs Uncollected Arena Crystal

DiablosUltimateDiablosUltimate Posts: 1,021 ★★★
edited March 2018 in General Discussion
Can anyone with deeper understanding of statistic than I have (which is none) tell me if any one of these two have bigger chance to drop units?

Is there a difference between 5 shots at 15% and 1 shot at 15%, or should it even out?

Comments

  • Primmer79Primmer79 Posts: 2,972 ★★★★
    Speaking in purely statistics, it is more likely to get units from 5 shots at 15%. However, it is the same odds to get the same units. i.e. you may gets units more often in arena crystals, but one uncollected arena crystal has the same units as 5 arena crystals. If that makes sense.
  • Savio444Savio444 Posts: 1,781 ★★★★
    If you had 300k battle chips, and your uncollected, would you buy normal or uncollected arena crystals?
  • LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Posts: 8,315 ★★★★★
    They are the same. 5x the cost for 5x the rewards. Uncollected feel worse when you get all gold because of the increased cost but when you hit the payout is fantastic. The upshot is you will get the same units over time. Increased chance at the punisher is the only real difference. 73k PVP wins and I still don't have him though smh
  • DiablosUltimateDiablosUltimate Posts: 1,021 ★★★
    33k fights here and no punisher neither. Good to hear that general conclusion is tthat they even out
  • ThebgjThebgj Posts: 635 ★★
    I used to think that the regular crystals were better for units. I would open 10+ uncollected at a time and usually get ONLY gold and not much gold. Then it changed. It’s been every other batch of 10 uncollected I get over 500 units. I’ve opened 1 and gotten the 265 or whatever the amount is. I can say that when I would open 100k worth of regular ones, I wouldn’t get 265 units most of the time
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 8,860 ★★★★★
    They have the same odds, why exactly would one be better than the other exluding the chance for 5* punisher?

  • AfridAfrid Posts: 529 ★★
    edited March 2018
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    Try popping ten or more at a time
  • LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Posts: 8,315 ★★★★★
    Nice! I don't even have a 4*
  • G-Hun-GearG-Hun-Gear Posts: 586 ★★★
    The regular arena crystals are better for gold and units. While the odds of getting gold or units are the same, if you get a punisher with the uncollected crystal, you have just spent 10k chips on him. If you pull him with the regular arena crystal, youhave only spent 2k and get more gold and units with the remaining 8k...
  • The uncollected arena crystals is best suited when having tons of battle chips. I’m talking about more like having 1million battlechip and then chip it in since you’re most likely to be given 2-3k units.

    If you’re really good at saving tons of crystals as well really good saving your battlechips then uncollected arena crystals suit your best.

    If you’re not good enough to safe crystals then the normal arena crystals suit your better for now and I said “for now” in meaning as in temporary until you’re getting good at saving :).

    It takes me 3-4 days to reach 100k battlechips, just so you know so you can have an estimate time to reach 1million or so but that’s just because of pure active grinding.

    For those that is relaxed arena personnel then maybe a week to reach 100k?
  • GunnesGunnes Posts: 26
    I do the regular because of better probability. Also although the end rewards are 5 times as much for 5 times the cost, I have rarely hit the upper range of units for the uncollected crystal. Regular is 15/45 units and uncollected is 75/225. The statistical probability is I believe the same but the practical outcome probability is different.

    So how is the probability better. Let's consider this example, if you had a 1 out of 10 chance of winning an amount, would you rather have one try at $100 or 10 tries for $10? You see you are more likely to get something for 10 tries rather than the one try. Although if you get likely you could get $100 but chances are low.

    You have more opportunities to get lucky with more tries. So if you really want 5* Punisher then you can only get him from uncollected, otherwise if you are after units then go for regular b/c you have a better chance of getting something instead of nothing.
  • Scarcity27Scarcity27 Posts: 1,906 ★★★★★
    Gunnes said:

    I do the regular because of better probability. Also although the end rewards are 5 times as much for 5 times the cost, I have rarely hit the upper range of units for the uncollected crystal. Regular is 15/45 units and uncollected is 75/225. The statistical probability is I believe the same but the practical outcome probability is different.

    So how is the probability better. Let's consider this example, if you had a 1 out of 10 chance of winning an amount, would you rather have one try at $100 or 10 tries for $10? You see you are more likely to get something for 10 tries rather than the one try. Although if you get likely you could get $100 but chances are low.

    You have more opportunities to get lucky with more tries. So if you really want 5* Punisher then you can only get him from uncollected, otherwise if you are after units then go for regular b/c you have a better chance of getting something instead of nothing.

    This is insightful but the thread is from 2018
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 8,860 ★★★★★
    Gunnes said:

    I do the regular because of better probability. Also although the end rewards are 5 times as much for 5 times the cost, I have rarely hit the upper range of units for the uncollected crystal. Regular is 15/45 units and uncollected is 75/225. The statistical probability is I believe the same but the practical outcome probability is different.

    So how is the probability better. Let's consider this example, if you had a 1 out of 10 chance of winning an amount, would you rather have one try at $100 or 10 tries for $10? You see you are more likely to get something for 10 tries rather than the one try. Although if you get likely you could get $100 but chances are low.

    You have more opportunities to get lucky with more tries. So if you really want 5* Punisher then you can only get him from uncollected, otherwise if you are after units then go for regular b/c you have a better chance of getting something instead of nothing.

    Yeah the important part here is that with the 2k crystals you have a better chance of getting some units. But if you’re going for these crystals in the long run, neither one is better or worse per se, it’s the variance that changes.

    Comparing 50k battlechips worth of crystals: If you buy 1 TB arena Crystal then you have a much higher variance, meaning you get 0 units, 375 units or 1125 units. You have quite a high risk, but high reward. You could get the maximum units, or you could get 0.

    But if you buy 25 normal crystals, you have a much lower variance, so you’re more likely to tend towards the mean. You’re much less likely to get 0 units, but equally you’re much less likely to get max units from 25 different crystals. It means you have a lower risk, and you’re more likely to come away with something.

    Overall, you have the same odds when stretched over a lot of crystals. So after opening enough crystals, your amount of units from both will tend towards the mean (I.e. the same amount), but the fewer crystals you’re opening, the further from the mean your TB arena Crystal amount of units will be. Whether that’s above or below the mean.

    Again, if you’re aiming to get *some* units, then yeah you’ll want to go for the 2k ones. But going for units in general, neither is better or worse. Over the long run the odds will balance out whatever you go for

    So neither is better, it’s just risk vs reward
  • Gunnes said:

    I do the regular because of better probability. Also although the end rewards are 5 times as much for 5 times the cost, I have rarely hit the upper range of units for the uncollected crystal. Regular is 15/45 units and uncollected is 75/225. The statistical probability is I believe the same but the practical outcome probability is different.

    So how is the probability better. Let's consider this example, if you had a 1 out of 10 chance of winning an amount, would you rather have one try at $100 or 10 tries for $10? You see you are more likely to get something for 10 tries rather than the one try. Although if you get likely you could get $100 but chances are low.

    You have more opportunities to get lucky with more tries. So if you really want 5* Punisher then you can only get him from uncollected, otherwise if you are after units then go for regular b/c you have a better chance of getting something instead of nothing.

    You managed to revive 2 very old posts about UC vs Regular, neither of which had the well documented analysis that DNA3000 had provided in many other threads. And with the change to Gold earned with them now, there are several newer threads as well that have discussed Arena crystals.
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