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Does anyone know the math of getting herc from featured 6? Also how are champions selected!
Lorddrew
Posts: 297 ★★
What are the odds on getting herc from featured 6? does anyone know the math!
Hey MCOC forums!
Does anyone know what the chances are on pulling hercules out of the current featured 6?
I've opened 23, got 0 featured best pull is medusa (nr 19 and 21, 23 ) and karnak on 22.
Rest are guilly 4 times, as gamorra, some cyclops, DD, joe, etc.
Does anyone have the math on this?
And when is the champion selected, when crystal is bought?
When you spin and "tap" ?
When set in the wheel, or when popped any insight helps, i'm looking into any superstition pep/pop 5 times in, tap at 3 or 5 nothing seem to work xD
Hey MCOC forums!
Does anyone know what the chances are on pulling hercules out of the current featured 6?
I've opened 23, got 0 featured best pull is medusa (nr 19 and 21, 23 ) and karnak on 22.
Rest are guilly 4 times, as gamorra, some cyclops, DD, joe, etc.
Does anyone have the math on this?
And when is the champion selected, when crystal is bought?
When you spin and "tap" ?
When set in the wheel, or when popped any insight helps, i'm looking into any superstition pep/pop 5 times in, tap at 3 or 5 nothing seem to work xD
2
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And there's no superstition or secret method to getting the champ you want. Once you click on the crystal it has already decided what champ you're gonna get, the reel is nothing but an animation. It's all RNG nothing else to it
Bad RNG? I got Herc on my 2nd attempt.
Was thinking is it me, my account, method of openings etc.
for now it's my bad luck on RNG, opened 20ggc, 5k 6* shards, no luck there.
It's like a theme , 37 5* featured, and no herc aswell. making me insane
Annyhow this post can be closed! thanks again for the reply's.
Kabam states, “Specific Champions do not have a higher drop rate than any other Champion unless otherwise noted in the drop rates on the crystal.”
The way champion crystals work is every champion crystal has a reward table that is frozen into it. What you actually get is determined randomly when you open the crystal. So for example, if the featured crystal contains twenty four different champions, that set of twenty four is baked into the crystal. That set is going to be the same set whether you open that crystal today, tomorrow, or ten years from now. But until you open it, the game doesn't pick one.
There's a special case of this: the basic pool. When a champion crystal has a chance to drop a champion from the basic pool of champs, that fact is baked into the crystal. But the basic pool itself changes over time as champions are added. So if you buy a 5* basic crystal today, but hold it for a year, when you open it the champion you get will be picked from among the 5* basic pool as it exists at that moment in time. You could get a champ that did not exist when you bought the crystal, but was added to the game, then added to the basic pool, while you were holding the crystal.
Most people believe that the crystal drop is determined at the moment you tap the crystal if you are spinning it, or when the game auto taps the crystal if you let it spin out, or at the moment you open the crystal if you open directly. The reason for this belief is that if you happen to get a champion that is not yet in your roster you will get a notification of a new champ. That notification highlight pops onto your screen on or just after you tap the crystal, but before the crystal stops spinning. That implies your game already knows the result before the crystal stops spinning, but this never happens before you tap the crystal to stop it (unless you let it spin out, in which case it happens automatically eventually). Another way to see this effect is to log into two different accounts in the same alliance: the alliance window will tell everyone else what you got after you tap but before the crystal spinning stops.
A common misconception is that random chance is usually fairly "even." Like if every champ has an equal chance to drop we shouldn't see four of one and none of another. But actually random chance generates such clusters fairly often. If you think about it, if every champ has the same chance to drop, it would be incredibly unlikely if you got exactly one of every champ. You say you opened 23 and didn't get any of the featured champs. There are six featured champs. So the odds of pulling one of them in every spin is 6 out of 24 or 1 in 4. That means the odds of not pulling one of them is 3 in 4. The odds of not pulling a featured in 23 spins is (doing the math) (3.4)^23 ~= 0.0013 or about 0.13%. This is one in 747. It is unlikely, but it is also about the same chance as pulling Weapon X out of a GGC. Unlikely, but out of thousands of players opening featured crystals, it is bound to happen to someone.
Replace 24 with 2 and herc with heads in a coin. By your method you would get P(heads) to be 1/4. But it is in fact 1/2 in a single toss
@DNA3000 is right on probability math. Each crystal has a 1/24 chance of pulling a specific champion, but when you’re talking about multiple crystals then the terminology is about odds. The crystals remain independent of each other (1 opening doesn’t affect the next), but the odds show how unlikely/likely you are to get specific outcomes.
TBH, it's given me new perspective on the game, not going hard anymore and just going to play cassually.