What are the odds of this

AceymcocAceymcoc Member Posts: 195 ★★
I’m genuinely curious what the odds of this happening are there two basic six stars
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Comments

  • AverageDesiAverageDesi Member Posts: 5,260 ★★★★★
    1/250 something
  • AceymcocAceymcoc Member Posts: 195 ★★

    1/250 something

    That’s almost your off of getting a single champ from the basic but to get the same champ twice in a row is a lot lower of a odd I’m not great at maths but ik that it ain’t that low of a probability
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Member Posts: 7,470 ★★★★★
    Aceymcoc said:

    I’m genuinely curious what the odds of this happening are there two basic six stars

    Underoos Cyclops haunts my crystal pulls. Mine is sig 120.
  • TurguzTurguz Member Posts: 43
    Well, I got Beast 3 times in a row. =)
  • The_Nemesis_1998The_Nemesis_1998 Member Posts: 17
    Technically it is around a .004% chance to get him at all.
    Now if you asked before opening the odds of getting him twice in a row, the probability is 1.6E-5 which is absolutely minuscule.
  • The_Nemesis_1998The_Nemesis_1998 Member Posts: 17
    And that's going off of the even 250 and not the exact # of champions that would make it smaller.
  • KAYDA_F2PKAYDA_F2P Member Posts: 21
    1/62500

    3 in a row🥵...then we are up to over 1/15M...our national lottery has 1/4.5M on 7 numbers...top prize about $2M per round.

    So you can take comfort in the fact that the chance of a 3d Cyclops next time, is terribly small 🫣
  • Ackbar67Ackbar67 Member Posts: 451 ★★★★
    KAYDA_F2P said:

    1/62500

    3 in a row🥵...then we are up to over 1/15M...our national lottery has 1/4.5M on 7 numbers...top prize about $2M per round.

    So you can take comfort in the fact that the chance of a 3d Cyclops next time, is terribly small 🫣

    Unfortunately he can't even take that comfort... Since the first 2 have already happened, the odds of the next crystal being cyclops are 1/220ish
  • The_Nemesis_1998The_Nemesis_1998 Member Posts: 17

    Technically it is around a .004% chance to get him at all.
    Now if you asked before opening the odds of getting him twice in a row, the probability is 1.6E-5 which is absolutely minuscule.

    I really hope you're not an accountant...
    You're damn right lol
  • 0casual00casual0 Member Posts: 457 ★★★
    It's better to open it one by one. Get one crystal, open it. Then get another one. Don't buy it in a pack because you will get the same pool. Happened to me a couple months ago with Silver Surfer.
  • Wu_Bangerz23Wu_Bangerz23 Member Posts: 1,001 ★★★
    Back to back? I'm not a mathematician but I'm pretty sure it's around 1 in 50,000.....about the same odds of us pulling a 6 star featured out of a cav
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  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Member Posts: 7,470 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:



    However, this is important, and something even professionals get wrong sometimes. The odds of pulling Blue Cyclops followed by Blue Cyclops is one in 48400. But the odds of pulling Blue Cyclops followed by Rogue is also one in 48400. The odds of pulling Hulkbuster followed by Archangel is one in 48400. The odds of pulling any specific champion followed by another specific champion is exactly the same: one in 48400.


    People need to write this down because most clearly do not understand it. I’ve been saying this for a while, albeit with far less authority.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,634 Guardian
    DrZola said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Aceymcoc said:

    1/250 something

    That’s almost your off of getting a single champ from the basic but to get the same champ twice in a row is a lot lower of a odd I’m not great at maths but ik that it ain’t that low of a probability
    Assuming there are about 220 6* champs in the basic crystal, the odds of pulling any one particular champ are one in 220. The odds of pulling one specific champ twice in a row out of two pulls specifically is one in 220x220 or one in 48400.

    However, this is important, and something even professionals get wrong sometimes. The odds of pulling Blue Cyclops followed by Blue Cyclops is one in 48400. But the odds of pulling Blue Cyclops followed by Rogue is also one in 48400. The odds of pulling Hulkbuster followed by Archangel is one in 48400. The odds of pulling any specific champion followed by another specific champion is exactly the same: one in 48400.

    That's because there are exactly 48400 possible combinations of two champs, and the odds of any one of those sequences coming up are identical. Let's simplify and consider the case of a crystal with just three champs in it: A, B, and C. There are three possibilities if you open one crystal:

    A
    B
    C

    The odds of each of those coming up are equal and identical, so the odds of pulling A or B or C are the same: one in three. Three possibilities, one chance for each. What if you open two crystals? There are now nine possibilities:

    AA
    AB
    AC
    BA
    BB
    BC
    CA
    CB
    CC

    Now, what are the odds of pulling A twice in a row? One in nine. There are nine possibilities, in exactly one of them you pull A twice, so the odds are one in nine. But what are the odds of pulling A followed by C? Still one in nine. AC is no more and no less likely than AA. There's nothing special, statistically, about pulling A twice in a row.

    We only *think* AA is special because it is a dup, and we think dups are rare. Which they are. If you look again, there are three ways to get a dup: AA, BB, and CC. That's three possibilities out of nine. So dups happen one time in three, while non-dups happen two times in three. So if you only care about whether your crystal dups or not, then dups are rare compared to everything else.

    But notice: dups happen one time in three. One specific dup, AA, happens one time in nine. If you compare dups to non-dups, dups are not common. But if you compare the specific sequence AA compared to all other sequences, it *isn't* rare. It happens one in nine, just like all other sequences.

    The fact that AA "seems" special is only in people's heads. It *looks* special, because dups seems special. But, and this is the punchline: dups are special, specific dups are not special.

    That's hard to wrap one's mind around. But think about it this way. Suppose *before* I were to open crystals I were to call my two openings. Suppose I call Winter Soldier and then Iceman, and then I get WS and Iceman in that order. That would seem to be extremely lucky. It is extremely difficult to call your openings like that, because as I said there are 48400 possible openings. To land on the bullseye is a one in 48400 shot. That's true no matter what those two are. It is just as hard to call your openings if it is two different champs than if it is two identical champs, because it is equally hard to get it right twice in a row.

    This is sometimes referred to as the postdiction problem in statistics. The rarity of an event or sequence of events has to be calculated before they are observed, with only the information you have before they are observed. If you attempt to calculate the odds of an event happening after it happens, you run into the question of what context that rarity should be judged against. What were you expecting, verses what you got. If you *call* Blue Cyclops twice in a row and then get it, the odds of that happening are one in 48400. But if you open first, see two Blue Cyclops, and then ask how rare that is, are you asking "what are the odds of Blue Cyclops and Blue Cyclops" or are you asking what are the odds of two identical champs coming up. Are you noticing two Cyclops, or just two dups and you'd notice just as much if it was two of any other champ.

    The odds of Blue Cyclops followed by Blue Cyclops is one in 48400. But the odds of you coming here to post about a duplicate champ is one in 220, because you'd still be here if it was two Rogues, or two Hulkbusters, or two Agent Venoms. Out of the 48400 possibilities, there are 220 in which you'd be here asking what are the odds of that, because what you noticed was a dup. The odds of a dup are 220 out of 48400, or one in 220.
    What are the odds of pulling anyone other than Blue Cyke in the second crystal?

    Dr. Zola
    In this example, 219 out of 220. Which means the odds of pulling a champ, followed by something that isn't that champ, is 219 out of 220. Basically the inverse of the question what are the odds of pulling the same champ twice in a row: one in 220.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,634 Guardian

    How bout this

    Good question. If we say that the odds of pulling Blue Cyclops twice in a row are one in 48400 because that's a rare special anomaly, then your pull is not two Blue Cyclops, so it is uninteresting. It failed to produce two Blue Cyclops. It is a miss. But if we say that this is just as interesting as the OP's two Cyclops pull, then the odds of this happening are technically one in 48400 also, but the odds of this opening being one of the "interesting dups" is one in 220.

    This is part of what I was getting at in my previous post. If someone insists that two Cyclops is one in 48400 and astronomically rare, then two Nightcrawlers is uninteresting. It *isn't* two Cyclops, because we defined interesting to specifically be two Cyclops. But if we decide that two NCs are just as interesting and notable, then it is obvious we did not think the OP's pull was interesting because it was two Cyclops, but rather because it was any dup, just like yours. And the odds of the OP getting a dup and you getting a dup are both one in 220.

    That's *per dual opening*. If there are lots of players opening lots of crystals, the odds that someone somewhere will see this becomes very high, because when the odds are one in 220 and you have thousands of players opening dozens of crystals aiming at a one in 220 bullseye, a lot of them will end up hitting it.
  • DrZolaDrZola Member Posts: 9,084 ★★★★★
    edited November 2022
    DNA3000 said:

    DrZola said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Aceymcoc said:

    1/250 something

    That’s almost your off of getting a single champ from the basic but to get the same champ twice in a row is a lot lower of a odd I’m not great at maths but ik that it ain’t that low of a probability
    Assuming there are about 220 6* champs in the basic crystal, the odds of pulling any one particular champ are one in 220. The odds of pulling one specific champ twice in a row out of two pulls specifically is one in 220x220 or one in 48400.

    However, this is important, and something even professionals get wrong sometimes. The odds of pulling Blue Cyclops followed by Blue Cyclops is one in 48400. But the odds of pulling Blue Cyclops followed by Rogue is also one in 48400. The odds of pulling Hulkbuster followed by Archangel is one in 48400. The odds of pulling any specific champion followed by another specific champion is exactly the same: one in 48400.

    That's because there are exactly 48400 possible combinations of two champs, and the odds of any one of those sequences coming up are identical. Let's simplify and consider the case of a crystal with just three champs in it: A, B, and C. There are three possibilities if you open one crystal:

    A
    B
    C

    The odds of each of those coming up are equal and identical, so the odds of pulling A or B or C are the same: one in three. Three possibilities, one chance for each. What if you open two crystals? There are now nine possibilities:

    AA
    AB
    AC
    BA
    BB
    BC
    CA
    CB
    CC

    Now, what are the odds of pulling A twice in a row? One in nine. There are nine possibilities, in exactly one of them you pull A twice, so the odds are one in nine. But what are the odds of pulling A followed by C? Still one in nine. AC is no more and no less likely than AA. There's nothing special, statistically, about pulling A twice in a row.

    We only *think* AA is special because it is a dup, and we think dups are rare. Which they are. If you look again, there are three ways to get a dup: AA, BB, and CC. That's three possibilities out of nine. So dups happen one time in three, while non-dups happen two times in three. So if you only care about whether your crystal dups or not, then dups are rare compared to everything else.

    But notice: dups happen one time in three. One specific dup, AA, happens one time in nine. If you compare dups to non-dups, dups are not common. But if you compare the specific sequence AA compared to all other sequences, it *isn't* rare. It happens one in nine, just like all other sequences.

    The fact that AA "seems" special is only in people's heads. It *looks* special, because dups seems special. But, and this is the punchline: dups are special, specific dups are not special.

    That's hard to wrap one's mind around. But think about it this way. Suppose *before* I were to open crystals I were to call my two openings. Suppose I call Winter Soldier and then Iceman, and then I get WS and Iceman in that order. That would seem to be extremely lucky. It is extremely difficult to call your openings like that, because as I said there are 48400 possible openings. To land on the bullseye is a one in 48400 shot. That's true no matter what those two are. It is just as hard to call your openings if it is two different champs than if it is two identical champs, because it is equally hard to get it right twice in a row.

    This is sometimes referred to as the postdiction problem in statistics. The rarity of an event or sequence of events has to be calculated before they are observed, with only the information you have before they are observed. If you attempt to calculate the odds of an event happening after it happens, you run into the question of what context that rarity should be judged against. What were you expecting, verses what you got. If you *call* Blue Cyclops twice in a row and then get it, the odds of that happening are one in 48400. But if you open first, see two Blue Cyclops, and then ask how rare that is, are you asking "what are the odds of Blue Cyclops and Blue Cyclops" or are you asking what are the odds of two identical champs coming up. Are you noticing two Cyclops, or just two dups and you'd notice just as much if it was two of any other champ.

    The odds of Blue Cyclops followed by Blue Cyclops is one in 48400. But the odds of you coming here to post about a duplicate champ is one in 220, because you'd still be here if it was two Rogues, or two Hulkbusters, or two Agent Venoms. Out of the 48400 possibilities, there are 220 in which you'd be here asking what are the odds of that, because what you noticed was a dup. The odds of a dup are 220 out of 48400, or one in 220.
    What are the odds of pulling anyone other than Blue Cyke in the second crystal?

    Dr. Zola
    In this example, 219 out of 220. Which means the odds of pulling a champ, followed by something that isn't that champ, is 219 out of 220. Basically the inverse of the question what are the odds of pulling the same champ twice in a row: one in 220.
    What I thought. He ought to find it comforting that, on average, he should be able to go another 219 tries at pulling a pair of basic 6* champs without getting twins.

    Dr. Zola
  • nephewstewnephewstew Member Posts: 25
    I pulled Kamala kahn as my first 4 6 stars...so top that
  • Doctorwho13Doctorwho13 Member Posts: 600 ★★★

    I pulled Kamala kahn as my first 4 6 stars...so top that

    60 sigs though bro.

  • phil56201phil56201 Member Posts: 986 ★★★
    Aceymcoc said:

    I’m genuinely curious what the odds of this happening are there two basic six stars

    You'd think that the odds are pretty low, but I guess not...











  • GladsGlads Member Posts: 428 ★★★
    Wicket329 said:

    Aceymcoc said:

    1/250 something

    That’s almost your off of getting a single champ from the basic but to get the same champ twice in a row is a lot lower of a odd I’m not great at maths but ik that it ain’t that low of a probability
    Nope, AverageDesi is right. Because the question isn’t “before opening this crystal, what are the odds I pull two Blue Cyclops,” but rather “after opening the first crystal, what are the odds I pull this same champion again?”

    The first event had already happened when you asked the question. Therefore, it’s the odds of pulling any one champion.
    I completely agree with you there are 2 chances of 1/250, as you have 2 crystals the point is its consecutive. If you open a crystals and duplicate a champ u have in your roster that's a .004% chance as it's consecutive that's a .000016% chance I argued this a while back no one believes the maths
  • UnyonfaceUnyonface Member Posts: 615 ★★★

    My mini account, pulled 6* Hulk, the 5* Hulk…
  • LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Member Posts: 8,672 ★★★★★
    Glads said:

    Wicket329 said:

    Aceymcoc said:

    1/250 something

    That’s almost your off of getting a single champ from the basic but to get the same champ twice in a row is a lot lower of a odd I’m not great at maths but ik that it ain’t that low of a probability
    Nope, AverageDesi is right. Because the question isn’t “before opening this crystal, what are the odds I pull two Blue Cyclops,” but rather “after opening the first crystal, what are the odds I pull this same champion again?”

    The first event had already happened when you asked the question. Therefore, it’s the odds of pulling any one champion.
    I completely agree with you there are 2 chances of 1/250, as you have 2 crystals the point is its consecutive. If you open a crystals and duplicate a champ u have in your roster that's a .004% chance as it's consecutive that's a .000016% chance I argued this a while back no one believes the maths
    The first crystal doesn't factor into the odds though. It's just once you open a crystal, what are the odds that the next crystal will be the same, which is just 1/250.
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