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Who ya Foolin with No foolin Pool’s Gold? Drop rate is WACK!!

Dawill76Dawill76 Posts: 22 ★
in General Discussion
How many of you guys have ever gotten a 6* Goldpool from this crystal? I don't know how Kabam calculates their percentage but I’ve been spun these crystals every time they have this event and have never opened anything other than gold (and mostly the smallest gold too). Is the percentage based on each event or the life of your account every time the event comes around? Cause I’m I would have at least gotten the .20% 5* Goldpool by now.

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    FurrymoosenFurrymoosen Posts: 2,225 ★★★★★
    I’ve gotten the 5* 3 times out of at least a few hundred crystals. My friend got the 6* today. These percentages aren’t guarantees that you’ll pull anything out of X many crystals, nor are they a guarantee that you need to open X many crystals before you have a chance. RNG is RNG and these percentages are not for individuals, but across all players opening crystals at all times.
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    doctorbdoctorb Posts: 1,726 ★★★
    Got 5* gold. So did someone else in my alliance
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    LokxLokx Posts: 287 ★★★
    Got 6* gold pool yesterday
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    danielmathdanielmath Posts: 4,046 ★★★★★
    i've gotten the 6* twice
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    PandingoPandingo Posts: 720 ★★★
    I have pulled squat and probably opened every goldpool crystal released 🤣🤣🤣
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★

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    TyphoonTyphoon Posts: 1,751 ★★★★★
    Dawill76 said:

    How many of you guys have ever gotten a 6* Goldpool from this crystal? I don't know how Kabam calculates their percentage but I’ve been spun these crystals every time they have this event and have never opened anything other than gold (and mostly the smallest gold too). Is the percentage based on each event or the life of your account every time the event comes around? Cause I’m I would have at least gotten the .20% 5* Goldpool by now.

    I've pulled him as a 6* twice since the event started.
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    GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,254 ★★★★★
    I've been opening Goldpool Crystals since their inception. Thousands, many Units, 3 GP Arenas. Never got one. It's just a low Drop Rate is all.
    (I still have a personal vendetta. You will be mine! Muahahaha!)
    *At least they gave us a 4-Star.
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    PantherAPPantherAP Posts: 57 ★
    I agree, the drop rates are ridiculous, I usually just pop open these crystals and hope for a decent amount of gold. To my surprise, though, I pulled him from my set of Gwenpool dailies yesterday!

    Now if only I can have this kind of luck with 6* Punisher, I’d be ecstatic, heh!

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    living_legend_1living_legend_1 Posts: 31 ★

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    hyp3r05hyp3r05 Posts: 67 ★
    I’ve gotten 5 and 6 star, at least one alliance mate got 5 star as well
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,687 Guardian
    Dawill76 said:

    How many of you guys have ever gotten a 6* Goldpool from this crystal? I don't know how Kabam calculates their percentage but I’ve been spun these crystals every time they have this event and have never opened anything other than gold (and mostly the smallest gold too). Is the percentage based on each event or the life of your account every time the event comes around? Cause I’m I would have at least gotten the .20% 5* Goldpool by now.

    At a 0.2% drop rate, the odds of pulling the 5* Goldpool after 500 crystals is 63%, meaning you have a 37% chance of missing him after 500 crystals. For the odds of pulling him to be 95%, meaning you only have a one in twenty chance of missing him, you have to open 1496 Goldpool crystals.

    Have you opened one thousand fourhundred ninety six Goldpool crystals?


    I know what you are probably thinking. A 0.2% chance is one in 500, so it must be certain that you'd get him after 500 crystals. That's not true, for the simple reason that if everyone got him after 500 crystals, the drop odds would only be one in 500 if no one, ever got him twice. Since the odds of getting him more than once is not zero, the odds of getting him at least once in 500 crystals must be less than 100%.

    It is theoretically possible to miss every single time, it is just increasingly improbable. But not impossible.


    For the mathematically inclined, as the numbers get large the odds of NOT getting something in X drops when the odds of getting it are one in X is about 0.368. That's because the way we calculate the odds of not getting drop D when the odds of getting that drop are one in X is (1 - 1/x) ^ R, where R is the number of rolls. So if the odds are one in 500, the odds of not pulling in twenty rolls is (1 - 1/500) ^ 20 = 0.998 ^ 20 ~= 0.96. The odds of not pulling in 500 openings are (1-1/500)^500 ~= 0.3675. The sequence (1 - 1/x)^X is a rapidly converging series. The limit as x->∞ of (1-1/x) ^ x is 1/e, which is 0.367879...
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    SpideyFunkoSpideyFunko Posts: 21,809 ★★★★★

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    phillgreenphillgreen Posts: 3,688 ★★★★★
    I have 5* duped and 6*
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    SummonerNRSummonerNR Posts: 10,658 Guardian
    DNA3000 said:



    At a 0.2% drop rate, the odds of pulling the 5* Goldpool after …
    Etc, etc, etc… (real math 😀)

    Or in other wards, NO (to use Feature Champ crystals as example), opening exactly 24 Featured Crystals will *NOT* give you exactly 1 each (no dups, none missing) of all of the 24 potential champs that are in that Featured crystal. Lol.

    **anyone else feel as if the Feedback options should have another Reaction added (besides “Insightful” or “Awesome”) for all of @DNA3000 's replies like these.
    Should be a new Reaction we could give called “MATH”.
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    Madman_marvinMadman_marvin Posts: 649 ★★★★
    Pulled 6* on first day of new event for first time. I was shook 😂
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    Dart1981Dart1981 Posts: 222 ★★★
    SummonerNR said:

    DNA3000 said:



    At a 0.2% drop rate, the odds of pulling the 5* Goldpool after …
    Etc, etc, etc… (real math 😀)

    Or in other wards, NO (to use Feature Champ crystals as example), opening exactly 24 Featured Crystals will *NOT* give you exactly 1 each (no dups, none missing) of all of the 24 potential champs that are in that Featured crystal. Lol.

    **anyone else feel as if the Feedback options should have another Reaction added (besides “Insightful” or “Awesome”) for all of @DNA3000 's replies like these.
    Should be a new Reaction we could give called “MATH”.
    We need this reaction 🤣
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    DrownedGodDrownedGod Posts: 276 ★

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    MaxtheSilentMaxtheSilent Posts: 762 ★★★
    I have a 6* (since last year) and tonight my son pulled a 5*. It says you have like half a percent chance to get him. It wouldn’t be surprising if you open hundreds and never saw him. It’s frustrating but it’ll be all the more exciting when you do get him.
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,687 Guardian
    MaxtheSilent said:

    I have a 6* (since last year) and tonight my son pulled a 5*. It says you have like half a percent chance to get him. It wouldn’t be surprising if you open hundreds and never saw him. It’s frustrating but it’ll be all the more exciting when you do get him.

    One in 500 for the 5* (on average), one in 2000 for the 6*.
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    MidnightfoxMidnightfox Posts: 1,094 ★★★
    Pulled last year. Awakened this event
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    Thanks_D19Thanks_D19 Posts: 1,480 ★★★★
    DNA3000 said:


    For the mathematically inclined, as the numbers get large the odds of NOT getting something in X drops when the odds of getting it are one in X is about 0.368. That's because the way we calculate the odds of not getting drop D when the odds of getting that drop are one in X is (1 - 1/x) ^ R, where R is the number of rolls. So if the odds are one in 500, the odds of not pulling in twenty rolls is (1 - 1/500) ^ 20 = 0.998 ^ 20 ~= 0.96. The odds of not pulling in 500 openings are (1-1/500)^500 ~= 0.3675. The sequence (1 - 1/x)^X is a rapidly converging series. The limit as x->∞ of (1-1/x) ^ x is 1/e, which is 0.367879...

    I’m taking calculus right now and even I didn’t know how to calculate that limit. The amount of highly complex math that you just know off the top of your head never ceases to amaze me lol
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