# Uncollected arena crystals - Expected units

G-Hun-Gear
Member Posts:

**1,447**★★★★
Hey there,

here’s the annual conspiracy theory of low unit drop rates before the cyber event… Normally I calculate with about 15 units on average per uncollected arena crystal…

Just opened 57 of them and got a total of 450 units… That’s not even 8 units on average

I mean, I know it’s RNG, but JESUS!

What’s your expected average units for these crystals?

here’s the annual conspiracy theory of low unit drop rates before the cyber event… Normally I calculate with about 15 units on average per uncollected arena crystal…

Just opened 57 of them and got a total of 450 units… That’s not even 8 units on average

I mean, I know it’s RNG, but JESUS!

What’s your expected average units for these crystals?

3

## Comments

7,522★★★★★2,342★★★★★1,447★★★★Still feels bad and I wanted to rant…

1,447★★★★Also, congratulations on being “un-warned”…

19,640Guardian57 UC crystals is 570000 BC worth, which on average would generate 1026 units. But 57 crystals is a very small number and RNG will vary wildy. For reference, the most I ever got from a batch of 100 TB crystals is 900 units, and the most I received was 2850 units. If I split my batches down the middle, the worst batch of 50 contained 300 units.

TB crystals have even wilder variance, because you open fewer crystals per one million BC. My lowest one million BC batch (20 crystals) is 375 units, and my highest is 5250.

There's no correlation in my data between proximity to one of the big sale days and the amount of units. I try to open batches close to big sale days specifically, and the batch of 20 TB crystals I opened just before J4 2023 (which is also one million BC worth) contained 2625 units. Just before CW 2022: 1125 units. Before J4 2022, 1500 units and 2625 units (two batches in June). And just before CW 2021: 4125.

7,963★★★★★19,640GuardianHowever, in the long run the TB crystal generates the best results if you consider all rewards. It contains the same amount of units on average, very slightly more gold due to the way the crystal is constructed, and higher rarity Punishers. Same odds, but just bumped up rarity. For reference, out of 2200 UC crystals I pulled 4* Punisher three times and 5* Punisher never. Out of 780 TB crystals I pulled 5* Punisher five times (I have yet to pull 6* Punisher). 5* Punisher drops on average once out of every 5000 UC crystals, so I could have opened thousands more of them before getting him once. But he shows up once every 154 TB crystals, and I've pulled him multiple times.

It isn't a big deal, all the crystals have approximately the same net drop rate, with the basic and UC crystals being identical per Battlechip and the TB very slightly more, but the difference shouldn't be a big part of most players' decision making. Basic is the most consistent, TB has the tiniest edge in rewards.

1,447★★★★You're probably right, but I generally tend towards UC crystals for one reason: I don't care about Punisher... If I pull him with a basic crystal, that's 2000 BC just wasted... If I pull him with a UC crystal, that's 10k BC wasted, but at least I get 24 skill ISO, and I am always low on ISO...

1,447★★★★19,640Guardian1,447★★★★999★★★★The reality is, if you aren't chasing higher rarity punisher, might as well open regular ones. Protects against the big bust.

1,447★★★★8 units on average… Well, I’m not even mad, I got the 8k units for cyber, which is fine because I wouldn’t have made the 10k needed for the second level offers, anyway…

Now I only need to hope that there are T6CC selectors in the level 1 unit offers…

Wish me luck! (More luck than with the arena crystals, please! )

3,415★★★★★Another time i opened 5 mil battechips and pulled only 4k units . Was frustrated af since the grind to 5 mil bchips took long . It is what it is mate .

1,089★★★I opened basic ones usually at least 500k BC and the results speak for themselves…

Hope I can convince you to open the basic ones and get a more consistent result.

1,447★★★★But seriously, how do you have the patience to open 1,360 crystals in one sitting?

337★★★Last time I did this was in September. Results were:

26.2MM Gold (2.62MM average per 100 crystals)

18.3K Units (1830 average per 100 crystals)

9 4* Punisher

5 Energy Refills

Lowest Gold total per 100 crystals was 2.45MM, highest was 2,958,663.

Lowest quantity of Units per 100 crystals was 1,125 (twice) and highest was 2700 (twice).

353★★★235★★I opened 200k chips and got ~400 unit

4★