Here is my conversation for a map 5 crystal luck ticket a year or so ago. They used the words "there are several in-game factors which determine the drop rates".
Here is the FAQ section on 4-star champions, saying "there are several in-game factors that determine the drop rates of Champions". If it is just random or distribution based random they shouldn't have to consider any in-game factors. The term in-game factors could mean anything from spending pattern, current roster, catalysts, past pulls, the rarity of champs (tier list) or perhaps nothing at all. But this is the word they chose to use, so I don't see how it can be interpreted as just RNG.
They don't have to give the algorithm, but they can say what those in-game factors are and how are they related to drop rates.
Thanks for posting this. From the article:
"While selecting a specific Hero is not possible, there are several in-game factors that determine the drop rates of Champions. Please know that these factors were created with player’s concerns and feedback for these features in mind. They were implemented to ensure that there is not only a maintained balance between the opportunity to obtain valued items, but the rarity and integrity of these items as well. "
That is not describing RNG. In fact it is describing the exact opposite of RNG. I do not think they would have to reveal that to Apple especially on a 4* crystal since the only promise they make is providing a 4* champ. But to those of you saying it is all random and not manipulated should be eating your words
That article has been known about for a long time, and it was within that context that @Kabam Miike attempted to clarify crystal odds long ago. The phrase "in-game factors" refers to the fact that when you are talking about crystals in general most crystals have more than one set of drops. PHCs, for example, can drop 2*, 3*, or 4* champions. The different "pools" of drops have different odds that are based on how they were designed. On top of that certain crystals have and state special odds for certain special drops, like featured crystals. However, when it comes to crystals that drop champions, except where otherwise stated, all champions within a specific pool have the same odds of dropping.
Beyond that, saying "that is not describing RNG" rather demonstrates a lack of understanding of how games like this generate drops. The random number generator does NOT determine the odds of something dropping. The random number generator is used to select an item algorithmically from a drop table system that determines the odds of something dropping via table weighting. The random number generator assures that the weighting is stochastically distributed.
By way of example, in the game of craps the odds of rolling seven are much higher than the odds of rolling twelve. That doesn't mean the dice in a casino are loaded non-randomly to generate that result. That is a function of the mechanics of the game, not the randomness of the dice.
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That article has been known about for a long time, and it was within that context that @Kabam Miike attempted to clarify crystal odds long ago. The phrase "in-game factors" refers to the fact that when you are talking about crystals in general most crystals have more than one set of drops. PHCs, for example, can drop 2*, 3*, or 4* champions. The different "pools" of drops have different odds that are based on how they were designed. On top of that certain crystals have and state special odds for certain special drops, like featured crystals. However, when it comes to crystals that drop champions, except where otherwise stated, all champions within a specific pool have the same odds of dropping.
Beyond that, saying "that is not describing RNG" rather demonstrates a lack of understanding of how games like this generate drops. The random number generator does NOT determine the odds of something dropping. The random number generator is used to select an item algorithmically from a drop table system that determines the odds of something dropping via table weighting. The random number generator assures that the weighting is stochastically distributed.
By way of example, in the game of craps the odds of rolling seven are much higher than the odds of rolling twelve. That doesn't mean the dice in a casino are loaded non-randomly to generate that result. That is a function of the mechanics of the game, not the randomness of the dice.
So it is not talking about the variance in PHC's. I'm unclear why people refuse to believe that drop rates are manipulated. They've admitted it in the post. It is like hanging onto a belief in Santa Claus.
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That article has been known about for a long time, and it was within that context that @Kabam Miike attempted to clarify crystal odds long ago. The phrase "in-game factors" refers to the fact that when you are talking about crystals in general most crystals have more than one set of drops. PHCs, for example, can drop 2*, 3*, or 4* champions. The different "pools" of drops have different odds that are based on how they were designed. On top of that certain crystals have and state special odds for certain special drops, like featured crystals. However, when it comes to crystals that drop champions, except where otherwise stated, all champions within a specific pool have the same odds of dropping.
Beyond that, saying "that is not describing RNG" rather demonstrates a lack of understanding of how games like this generate drops. The random number generator does NOT determine the odds of something dropping. The random number generator is used to select an item algorithmically from a drop table system that determines the odds of something dropping via table weighting. The random number generator assures that the weighting is stochastically distributed.
By way of example, in the game of craps the odds of rolling seven are much higher than the odds of rolling twelve. That doesn't mean the dice in a casino are loaded non-randomly to generate that result. That is a function of the mechanics of the game, not the randomness of the dice.
So it is not talking about the variance in PHC's. I'm unclear why people refuse to believe that drop rates are manipulated. They've admitted it in the post. It is like hanging onto a belief in Santa Claus.
Actually, that article talks about 4* champions, not 4* crystals. The article first talks about how to get a 4* champion, first by talking about how to acquire 4* crystals, then following up with this section:
However, there are many ways to get a 4 Star Champion in the game:
Guaranteed drop from 4-Star Hero Crystals
Random drop from Premium Hero Crystals
Ranked Rewards from Arenas
Then it talks about the random drop system. And the section you are trying to use to prove that drops are not random is titled: Crystal drops are random. How do I get the Hero I want?
Also, there's a lot of copy-paste in the articles, as is often the case with video game FAQs. For example, this is the section in the 5* champion article:
Crystal drops are random. How do I get the Hero I want?
There is no easy answer for a streak of bad luck, and we certainly understand that misfortune can lead to disappointment and frustration.
While selecting a specific Hero is not possible, there are several in-game factors that determine the drop rates of Champions. Please know that these factors were created with player’s concerns and feedback for these features in mind. They were implemented to ensure that there is not only a maintained balance between the opportunity to obtain valued items, but the rarity and integrity of these items as well.
It is identical to the same passage in the 4* champion article. It is the boilerplate message addressing the random nature of champion crystals.
At least this thread can stay alive for another month with theories as there is no update to the app this month. Good times
When it comes to anything having to do with random odds, one thing I can guarantee is that actually posting the odds isn't going to prevent conspiracy theories or broken math discussions. Statistics is a reminder that game players are fundamentally still cavemen staring at the Sun and thinking they see a fiery chariot being pulled across the sky.
If it isn't going to change many players' behaviors or correct many players' broken thinking, then what's the point really? The point, I think, is that it doesn't matter how posting the details changes player behavior, it matters how it changes developer behavior. This need to keep such details secret is a matter of religion among game developers, and its a religion that deserves to die. And when developers are forced to design their monetization systems in the open, I think it will change their behavior in ways that will matter in the long run. Instead of thinking about their monetization mechanisms in terms of secret sauce that tempts players, they will be forced to think about them in terms of being directly attractive to players. They will still want to manipulate players into buying things: that's what all monetization systems do. But they will be more encouraged to make them attractive more than manipulative.
I don't expect to see dramatic changes in the game industry. But a world in which the black box religion of monetization is a banned religion, and developers try to outdo each other on the attractiveness of their monetization boxes rather than their invisible engagement numbers is something I would like to see a decade of.
Game design is a remarkably insular, almost voodoo industry. It could use some light being shed on the practices that currently affect and will likely affect game players the most in the foreseeable future.
If Kabam has internal tiers of champs, there is no reason to assume they don't have their own drop rates associated with them.
Actually, there are some very good reasons to assume this is not true, but you have to have some experience with how these games work to really understand them.
When Kabam referenced internal lists of champions, they were almost certainly mentioning something most of not all games like this do internally. They use internal metrics to measure the performance of all the champions in a lot of different ways. Which ones are ranked up more often, which ones are played more often, which ones win more fights than others. But these don't generate linear rankings. Kabam probably doesn't have an actual list of champions ranked from one to one hundred. They know which champs get to rank 2 more often, and which get to rank 3 more often. They know which ones are played more often. These can be different lists.
These lists are driven by datamining and they get updated constantly. This data doesn't exist until a champion is released and played a lot, and that data changes over time as the champion is acquired by an increasing percentage of the player population until some steady state is reached, possibly a year or more after release. These data points are fluctuating moving targets which aren't useful for setting drop rates. What's more, its philosophically broken for them to set the drop rates using this data, because this data is also used to determine future development, including buffs and nerfs down the line. Because the development cycle is long, four to six months would be typical, you'd be using six month old data to set the drop rates for something that might be buffed at the same time you're adjusting the drop rates of the thing itself.
If the "tiers" were deliberate and intended to be static, you could imagine a dev team manipulating drop rates based on that fixed data. But it simply wouldn't make sense to do so with the data as it is normally generated.
There's another really good reason to believe this doesn't happen. Game devs are, on average, horrible with math. I'm not saying something everyone in the industry doesn't know. Drop systems in games like this are typically created with entry tables not algorithmic odds. These tables are actually not easy to manipulate. I mean, any second year civil engineer could do it, but you'd be surprised to see how many MMOs have drop tables with drop odds that are actually significantly different than what the developer who made it actually believes it generates - or even sometimes *cares* that it generates. I once discovered a bug in a game where a drop rate explicitly intended to be 10% ended up being 7.24%, whereupon it was declared to be "close enough" and kept.
Take the PHC. I think the figure of merit for 4* in PHC is about one in a hundred or 0.01. But I suspect it is actually 0.0083. Testing suggests to me that 4* champs aren't one out of one hundred. Actually, its closer to one 4* *with* every 100 2*s - and about one 3* *with* every 4 or 5 2*s. I think the drop table was constructed with 100 2* "entries" (real or virtual), 20 3* and 1 4* chosen stochastically. That means 4* champions are actually one out of 121. The *ratio* is 100:20:1.
When you see weird odds but clean ratios, that's a signal of a very specific kind of drop system. And that kind of system isn't the kind you use if you want every champion to have different manipulated odds. It isn't proof, but it is the kind of thing I think other MMO developers would understand and recognize.
Uh there are factors that effect drop rate primarily the type of crystal opened. Featured crystals, ultimate crystals, and phc.
Maybe, but my screenshot of the email was for a specific crystal (map 5), there is no type of crystal opened there. They mentioned there are in-game factors even for map 5 crystals. Now, IDK if they should/would give any more info on this, but it is surely not clear to me that it is just random.
First of all, we know that the responses tend to be generic. Anyone who has sent a message to Support knows that. Secondly, those factors are what Crystal you're opening, the chance at what's in it, etc. It doesn't mean that your drops are altered by some other factor. That's stretching the comment.
They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH
Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.
So based on a comment passed on second-hand, people have conjectured that the Devs have rated Champs in tandem with the Players' "God Tier" system and are altering drops to limit those Champs from dropping so much. Cool story, bro.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH
Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.
So based on a comment passed on second-hand, people have conjectured that the Devs have rated Champs in tandem with the Players' "God Tier" system and are altering drops to limit those Champs from dropping so much. Cool story, bro.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
While there is no reason to believe the devs alter drops based on it, they do in all likelihood measure the performance of all the champions and keep lists of which are high and low performance champions. The primary reason for believing they do, and the NYCC comments are true, is because *all* MMO developers do this. Metrics like this are so standard in the industry that if a Kabam developer said they didn't do it I would question their own knowledge of their own company's operations to their face.
They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH
Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.
So based on a comment passed on second-hand, people have conjectured that the Devs have rated Champs in tandem with the Players' "God Tier" system and are altering drops to limit those Champs from dropping so much. Cool story, bro.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
Can I just ask what you base all your facts off?
I mean I love the game and Kabam, and the guys are really amazing - Adora, Miike etc.
However they can still be criticised, not the forum mods, but the company.
But anyway, what are all your facts based off? It's a little hypocritical to say someone is basing their facts from a YouTube video, what is your source?
I also don't think seatin would lie about such a thing either.
They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH
Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.
So based on a comment passed on second-hand, people have conjectured that the Devs have rated Champs in tandem with the Players' "God Tier" system and are altering drops to limit those Champs from dropping so much. Cool story, bro.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
While there is no reason to believe the devs alter drops based on it, they do in all likelihood measure the performance of all the champions and keep lists of which are high and low performance champions. The primary reason for believing they do, and the NYCC comments are true, is because *all* MMO developers do this. Metrics like this are so standard in the industry that if a Kabam developer said they didn't do it I would question their own knowledge of their own company's operations to their face.
Well of course. That's a constant in analyzing and revising Champs. I just don't agree that they share the same value system as the Players. Certainly not as fanatically. Lol. I am 99% certain they don't alter the drops based on that information.
They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH
Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.
So based on a comment passed on second-hand, people have conjectured that the Devs have rated Champs in tandem with the Players' "God Tier" system and are altering drops to limit those Champs from dropping so much. Cool story, bro.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
While there is no reason to believe the devs alter drops based on it, they do in all likelihood measure the performance of all the champions and keep lists of which are high and low performance champions. The primary reason for believing they do, and the NYCC comments are true, is because *all* MMO developers do this. Metrics like this are so standard in the industry that if a Kabam developer said they didn't do it I would question their own knowledge of their own company's operations to their face.
Well of course. That's a constant in analyzing and revising Champs. I just don't agree that they share the same value system as the Players. Certainly not as fanatically. Lol. I am 99% certain they don't alter the drops based on that information.
Then why would you say that their internal system for valuing champions is called "Rating." PI rating has nothing to do with it.
They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH
Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.
So based on a comment passed on second-hand, people have conjectured that the Devs have rated Champs in tandem with the Players' "God Tier" system and are altering drops to limit those Champs from dropping so much. Cool story, bro.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
Do you honestly believe that the dev team has no idea of how good each character is compared to the other pool of champs? Is that a very likely opinion?
Was just about to say, over on the Sentry post, Kabam Mike said that theres no update fod this month's EQ, theyll let us know when thats coming.
GENIUS! If you dont push an update, you dont have to abide by the ToS of Apple I guess? lol
Go ahead and call me whatever lol theyve never done this before from when I started playing 2 years ago or so?
Do you remember Void showing up in arenas in early December and did you notice all the data mined info from December? You already got this months EQ last month.
If I were to hazard a guess as to why, there is a fairly large update in the works they want to spend extra time on before release.
Was just about to say, over on the Sentry post, Kabam Mike said that theres no update fod this month's EQ, theyll let us know when thats coming.
GENIUS! If you dont push an update, you dont have to abide by the ToS of Apple I guess? lol
Go ahead and call me whatever lol theyve never done this before from when I started playing 2 years ago or so?
Sneaky lil Kabam.
Actually, we did this last year as well, and I think the year before as well. The December and January updates are combined so that have the content for both Months are included. this way, there is no need for any update for January.
Do you remember Void showing up in arenas in early December and did you notice all the data mined info from December? You already got this months EQ last month.
If I were to hazard a guess as to why, there is a fairly large update in the works they want to spend extra time on before release.
Possible and I don’t believe this is the first eq without an update but this is certainly abnormal
Was just about to say, over on the Sentry post, Kabam Mike said that theres no update fod this month's EQ, theyll let us know when thats coming.
GENIUS! If you dont push an update, you dont have to abide by the ToS of Apple I guess? lol
Go ahead and call me whatever lol theyve never done this before from when I started playing 2 years ago or so?
Sneaky lil Kabam.
Actually, we did this last year as well, and I think the year before as well. The December and January updates are combined so that have the content for both Months are included. this way, there is no need for any update for January.
Okay also explains why it was such a large download.
Does this mean future pathces wont be as large or is this a constant now? (e.g: adding Febs EQ data in the Jan update)? I only ask because it doesnt show in the patch notes on Playstore & for larger downloads I feel like just saying 'additional content for future events' or something may not be a terrible idea? I understand it not being there though as its kinda 'giving it away' in a sense but some updates get really really big & I come from a 3rd world country so connectivity isnt really cheap & I know theres other uhm, less developed countries that have a playerbase too who face a similar problem, just a question
They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH
Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.
So based on a comment passed on second-hand, people have conjectured that the Devs have rated Champs in tandem with the Players' "God Tier" system and are altering drops to limit those Champs from dropping so much. Cool story, bro.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
While there is no reason to believe the devs alter drops based on it, they do in all likelihood measure the performance of all the champions and keep lists of which are high and low performance champions. The primary reason for believing they do, and the NYCC comments are true, is because *all* MMO developers do this. Metrics like this are so standard in the industry that if a Kabam developer said they didn't do it I would question their own knowledge of their own company's operations to their face.
Well of course. That's a constant in analyzing and revising Champs. I just don't agree that they share the same value system as the Players. Certainly not as fanatically. Lol. I am 99% certain they don't alter the drops based on that information.
Then why would you say that their internal system for valuing champions is called "Rating." PI rating has nothing to do with it.
It's another system. When we're talking about the usual "God Tier" vs. "Garbage Tier", I don't believe they share that same view, much less alter availability and drops based on that. I think the comment was taken and stretched to fit.
Comments
Yeah just read, it is on point number 12. Oh well, my mistake.
That article has been known about for a long time, and it was within that context that @Kabam Miike attempted to clarify crystal odds long ago. The phrase "in-game factors" refers to the fact that when you are talking about crystals in general most crystals have more than one set of drops. PHCs, for example, can drop 2*, 3*, or 4* champions. The different "pools" of drops have different odds that are based on how they were designed. On top of that certain crystals have and state special odds for certain special drops, like featured crystals. However, when it comes to crystals that drop champions, except where otherwise stated, all champions within a specific pool have the same odds of dropping.
Beyond that, saying "that is not describing RNG" rather demonstrates a lack of understanding of how games like this generate drops. The random number generator does NOT determine the odds of something dropping. The random number generator is used to select an item algorithmically from a drop table system that determines the odds of something dropping via table weighting. The random number generator assures that the weighting is stochastically distributed.
By way of example, in the game of craps the odds of rolling seven are much higher than the odds of rolling twelve. That doesn't mean the dice in a casino are loaded non-randomly to generate that result. That is a function of the mechanics of the game, not the randomness of the dice.
Actually, that article talks about 4* champions, not 4* crystals. The article first talks about how to get a 4* champion, first by talking about how to acquire 4* crystals, then following up with this section:
Then it talks about the random drop system. And the section you are trying to use to prove that drops are not random is titled: Crystal drops are random. How do I get the Hero I want?
Also, there's a lot of copy-paste in the articles, as is often the case with video game FAQs. For example, this is the section in the 5* champion article:
It is identical to the same passage in the 4* champion article. It is the boilerplate message addressing the random nature of champion crystals.
You can’t argue with stupidity so stop responding to his illogical posts that lack any facts or even long term player perspective.
When it comes to anything having to do with random odds, one thing I can guarantee is that actually posting the odds isn't going to prevent conspiracy theories or broken math discussions. Statistics is a reminder that game players are fundamentally still cavemen staring at the Sun and thinking they see a fiery chariot being pulled across the sky.
If it isn't going to change many players' behaviors or correct many players' broken thinking, then what's the point really? The point, I think, is that it doesn't matter how posting the details changes player behavior, it matters how it changes developer behavior. This need to keep such details secret is a matter of religion among game developers, and its a religion that deserves to die. And when developers are forced to design their monetization systems in the open, I think it will change their behavior in ways that will matter in the long run. Instead of thinking about their monetization mechanisms in terms of secret sauce that tempts players, they will be forced to think about them in terms of being directly attractive to players. They will still want to manipulate players into buying things: that's what all monetization systems do. But they will be more encouraged to make them attractive more than manipulative.
I don't expect to see dramatic changes in the game industry. But a world in which the black box religion of monetization is a banned religion, and developers try to outdo each other on the attractiveness of their monetization boxes rather than their invisible engagement numbers is something I would like to see a decade of.
Game design is a remarkably insular, almost voodoo industry. It could use some light being shed on the practices that currently affect and will likely affect game players the most in the foreseeable future.
Actually, there are some very good reasons to assume this is not true, but you have to have some experience with how these games work to really understand them.
When Kabam referenced internal lists of champions, they were almost certainly mentioning something most of not all games like this do internally. They use internal metrics to measure the performance of all the champions in a lot of different ways. Which ones are ranked up more often, which ones are played more often, which ones win more fights than others. But these don't generate linear rankings. Kabam probably doesn't have an actual list of champions ranked from one to one hundred. They know which champs get to rank 2 more often, and which get to rank 3 more often. They know which ones are played more often. These can be different lists.
These lists are driven by datamining and they get updated constantly. This data doesn't exist until a champion is released and played a lot, and that data changes over time as the champion is acquired by an increasing percentage of the player population until some steady state is reached, possibly a year or more after release. These data points are fluctuating moving targets which aren't useful for setting drop rates. What's more, its philosophically broken for them to set the drop rates using this data, because this data is also used to determine future development, including buffs and nerfs down the line. Because the development cycle is long, four to six months would be typical, you'd be using six month old data to set the drop rates for something that might be buffed at the same time you're adjusting the drop rates of the thing itself.
If the "tiers" were deliberate and intended to be static, you could imagine a dev team manipulating drop rates based on that fixed data. But it simply wouldn't make sense to do so with the data as it is normally generated.
There's another really good reason to believe this doesn't happen. Game devs are, on average, horrible with math. I'm not saying something everyone in the industry doesn't know. Drop systems in games like this are typically created with entry tables not algorithmic odds. These tables are actually not easy to manipulate. I mean, any second year civil engineer could do it, but you'd be surprised to see how many MMOs have drop tables with drop odds that are actually significantly different than what the developer who made it actually believes it generates - or even sometimes *cares* that it generates. I once discovered a bug in a game where a drop rate explicitly intended to be 10% ended up being 7.24%, whereupon it was declared to be "close enough" and kept.
Take the PHC. I think the figure of merit for 4* in PHC is about one in a hundred or 0.01. But I suspect it is actually 0.0083. Testing suggests to me that 4* champs aren't one out of one hundred. Actually, its closer to one 4* *with* every 100 2*s - and about one 3* *with* every 4 or 5 2*s. I think the drop table was constructed with 100 2* "entries" (real or virtual), 20 3* and 1 4* chosen stochastically. That means 4* champions are actually one out of 121. The *ratio* is 100:20:1.
When you see weird odds but clean ratios, that's a signal of a very specific kind of drop system. And that kind of system isn't the kind you use if you want every champion to have different manipulated odds. It isn't proof, but it is the kind of thing I think other MMO developers would understand and recognize.
Indeed it is.
First of all, we know that the responses tend to be generic. Anyone who has sent a message to Support knows that. Secondly, those factors are what Crystal you're opening, the chance at what's in it, etc. It doesn't mean that your drops are altered by some other factor. That's stretching the comment.
They have their own internal system. It's not that covert. It's called Rating, and we see it everytime we open the game. It has no bearing on the drops.
While there is no reason to believe the devs alter drops based on it, they do in all likelihood measure the performance of all the champions and keep lists of which are high and low performance champions. The primary reason for believing they do, and the NYCC comments are true, is because *all* MMO developers do this. Metrics like this are so standard in the industry that if a Kabam developer said they didn't do it I would question their own knowledge of their own company's operations to their face.
Can I just ask what you base all your facts off?
I mean I love the game and Kabam, and the guys are really amazing - Adora, Miike etc.
However they can still be criticised, not the forum mods, but the company.
But anyway, what are all your facts based off? It's a little hypocritical to say someone is basing their facts from a YouTube video, what is your source?
I also don't think seatin would lie about such a thing either.
Well of course. That's a constant in analyzing and revising Champs. I just don't agree that they share the same value system as the Players. Certainly not as fanatically. Lol. I am 99% certain they don't alter the drops based on that information.
Then why would you say that their internal system for valuing champions is called "Rating." PI rating has nothing to do with it.
Do you honestly believe that the dev team has no idea of how good each character is compared to the other pool of champs? Is that a very likely opinion?
GENIUS! If you dont push an update, you dont have to abide by the ToS of Apple I guess? lol
Go ahead and call me whatever lol theyve never done this before from when I started playing 2 years ago or so?
Sneaky lil Kabam.
If I were to hazard a guess as to why, there is a fairly large update in the works they want to spend extra time on before release.
Actually, we did this last year as well, and I think the year before as well. The December and January updates are combined so that have the content for both Months are included. this way, there is no need for any update for January.
Okay also explains why it was such a large download.
Does this mean future pathces wont be as large or is this a constant now? (e.g: adding Febs EQ data in the Jan update)? I only ask because it doesnt show in the patch notes on Playstore & for larger downloads I feel like just saying 'additional content for future events' or something may not be a terrible idea? I understand it not being there though as its kinda 'giving it away' in a sense but some updates get really really big & I come from a 3rd world country so connectivity isnt really cheap & I know theres other uhm, less developed countries that have a playerbase too who face a similar problem, just a question
It's another system. When we're talking about the usual "God Tier" vs. "Garbage Tier", I don't believe they share that same view, much less alter availability and drops based on that. I think the comment was taken and stretched to fit.