Meh, I did my 1000, had a bunch of tier 4 class cat fragments that I was likely never going to open, same with a bunch of Cavalier crystals and the arena ones. Are they amazing rewards, no, but for a few minutes of cleaning out my stash I got some extra dust. I'm fine with it.
If it's just a test event, why did they have to make the milestones so high?
Now they know. This is how they know what's too low or too high.
I do feel they should have already factored the strength of the hoarder urge to hang onto collectively zillions of worthless to them crystals into their plans. The people sitting on those crystals aren't giving them up "for nothing". When Kabam force opens them, they'll get exactly what they would have gotten, but without helping anyone. For the other crystals that won't be force opened, if they're worthless now and will be converted into something worthless still, why not open them and help? Maybe they think that'll "teach Kabam" more than opening them and putting a post on the discord or the forum to express displeasure unambiguously would.
Maybe they did know exactly how pitifully greedy and self-centered we can be as a community and set their internal expectations low but the external "big prize" bar at a nice, round implausible number.
If it's just a test event, why did they have to make the milestones so high?
What possible reason could they have for deliberately making them low? In a test, you'd want to make sure that there was zero probability of hitting the final milestone in week two and then the whole thing being over.
Once we hit the final milestone the event is effectively over and the test is also over. Hitting the final milestone early truncates the test, which is problematic. Not hitting the final milestone is not problematic, unless you have to read all the forum threads about it.
If it's just a test event, why did they have to make the milestones so high?
What possible reason could they have for deliberately making them low? In a test, you'd want to make sure that there was zero probability of hitting the final milestone in week two and then the whole thing being over.
Once we hit the final milestone the event is effectively over and the test is also over. Hitting the final milestone early truncates the test, which is problematic. Not hitting the final milestone is not problematic, unless you have to read all the forum threads about it.
The rewards are meh, and we failed to complete it - that's the rough truth.
They may be 'Meh' for an experienced player, but I've actually been finding them extremely useful, and would have absolutely LOVED getting to the final reward as it would have guaranteed me my first 6*
If it is just a "test" event? Wouldn't it have been better to push it to the limit to motivate players to participate? How valid of a test of the scoring system, or whatever ,is this event if the result is "non-participation"?
If it is just a "test" event? Wouldn't it have been better to push it to the limit to motivate players to participate? How valid of a test of the scoring system, or whatever ,is this event if the result is "non-participation"?
First, there will almost certainly never be another realm event in which players do this many scoring events ever again. If players do as many BG matches in season 22 as we are projected to open crystals that would require the entire playerbase playing on the order of a thousand matches each on average.
Second, there is also never going to be another realm event with a higher participation percentage as the first realm event, because there is absolutely no activity that exists for players to do that will ever have basically 100% participation, which this event almost certainly has. How many active game accounts do not open any crystals at all during a 35 day period, especially when there is a daily reward panel you cannot close without claiming crystals running during the event?
Finally, there is also likely never going to be another realm event with a peak participation higher than the crystal cleanse. At our peak crystal opening rate players were opening over 3750 crystals per second. There isn't anything players can do at a higher rate that the game is likely to base a realm event upon.
The only way this test would not be an envelope encompassing test of the realm systems is if one day we have a realm event in which the final milestone involves the entire playerbase executing 10 billion light attacks in a month.
The difference between the players opening 650 million crystals and one billion crystals is, in the context of running a test of the realm event systems, insignificant. The only thing you could possibly learn that we aren't likely to learn in this first test would be if the UI designer allocated enough display digits for the realm score. Our lowest daily average is on the order of 12M crystals, which is an average of half a million crystal openings per hour. I cannot think of a thing you could bribe the players to do five hundred thousand times per hour, every hour, twenty four hours a day, for thirty five days, that you could meaningfully base a realm event upon. Even if you handed out Ferraris to every player who participated.
The realm event systems are never going to be asked to do more than what they are being asked to do now. And they are almost certainly never going to be asked to do this again either.
Not really possible to community reach 1.000.000.000
But at least next milestone will. So I have 175 Tier 2 Dust and with that 25 , I will upgrade one of mine 6 stars, probably Hercules.
Lets see the numbers till now...
550.000.000 crystals openned
If we do a calc of how many crystals were open by each summoner during these days, we can realize how many Summoners we are (more or less)
1st math - Remember that C.O. is the total Crystals Openned right now shown above (550.000.000)
C.O. / 1000=550.000 Summoners This 1st math is waayy tooo positive. Few people would open this many crystals(1000) ---*--- 2nd math C.O. / 750=733.333 Summoners ---*--- 3rd math C.O. / 500= 1.100.000 Summoners ---*--- 4th math (more plausible) C.O. / 300=1.833.333 Summoners
I think the number may vary from this 4th account to 2.200.000 Summoners @DNA3000 👍
Not really possible to community reach 1.000.000.000
But at least next milestone will. So I have 175 Tier 2 Dust and with that 25 , I will upgrade one of mine 6 stars, probably Hercules.
Lets see the numbers till now...
550.000.000 crystals openned
If we do a calc of how many crystals were open by each summoner during these days, we can realize how many Summoners we are (more or less)
1st math - Remember that C.O. is the total Crystals Openned right now shown above (550.000.000)
C.O. / 1000=550.000 Summoners This 1st math is waayy tooo positive. Few people would open this many crystals(1000) ---*--- 2nd math C.O. / 750=733.333 Summoners ---*--- 3rd math C.O. / 500= 1.100.000 Summoners ---*--- 4th math (more plausible) C.O. / 300=1.833.333 Summoners
I think the number may vary from this 4th account to 2.200.000 Summoners @DNA3000 👍
I exceeded the target Nd i will not take the rewards so its waste of time and effort we need all compensation why there are a lot of profile picture in this event and its hard to achieve why my rewards depend on others hand how lazy they hard or greedy so we need compensation for this
I exceeded the target Nd i will not take the rewards so its waste of time and effort we need all compensation why there are a lot of profile picture in this event and its hard to achieve why my rewards depend on others hand how lazy they hard or greedy so we need compensation for this
I exceeded the target Nd i will not take the rewards so its waste of time and effort we need all compensation why there are a lot of profile picture in this event and its hard to achieve why my rewards depend on others hand how lazy they hard or greedy so we need compensation for this
You opened 1700 out of 550 million and you have the nerve to say that you depend on others rofl
Not really possible to community reach 1.000.000.000
But at least next milestone will. So I have 175 Tier 2 Dust and with that 25 , I will upgrade one of mine 6 stars, probably Hercules.
Lets see the numbers till now...
550.000.000 crystals openned
If we do a calc of how many crystals were open by each summoner during these days, we can realize how many Summoners we are (more or less)
1st math - Remember that C.O. is the total Crystals Openned right now shown above (550.000.000)
C.O. / 1000=550.000 Summoners This 1st math is waayy tooo positive. Few people would open this many crystals(1000) ---*--- 2nd math C.O. / 750=733.333 Summoners ---*--- 3rd math C.O. / 500= 1.100.000 Summoners ---*--- 4th math (more plausible) C.O. / 300=1.833.333 Summoners
I think the number may vary from this 4th account to 2.200.000 Summoners @DNA3000 👍
My rough figure of merit is that we have something on the order of about 750,000 active game accounts, plus or minus. That would mean based on my current estimate of about 13-14 million crystals opened per day normally (which is the rough crystal opening rate we have converged to after the first week of the event) that the average player opens about 18 crystals per day. To a first order degree, that seems to be a reasonable estimate.
We're likely to get to about 650 million crystals total during the 35 days of the event. That is about 900 crystals per active account on average. That also seems reasonable as many players will open a lot more, but there are those that will open significantly less.
One thing we don't know and clouds these calculations, and is one of the few things about the game I have literally no way to measure even approximately, is early churn. Which is to say, there are probably a lot of people who download the game, play for a day to a week, then quit. Those players open crystals while they are here. Whether they count as "active players" or not is a separate question, but it is possible that there is some small fraction of crystals opened by players that simply aren't here any more.
We very likely have more than 550000 active accounts. The reason being: we have had as many as 260,000+ players on the solo battlegrounds event leaderboard. It seems highly unlikely to me that more than half the players are playing battlegrounds. Also, we've had on the order of 30k alliances on the war leaderboard, and even if you estimate the average alliance to have only 15 players (half full) that's 450k players which doesn't count alliances that don't do war and players not in alliances at all. Every participation data point visible to the players seems to say we have a lot more than 500k players.
Conversely, I think it is almost impossible we have over 1.5 million active accounts, because once upon a time we had 1.3 millions (during the Rocket button days) and it seems highly unlikely to me we would have a lot more players than we did back then. The number is very likely between 600k and 1M.
Comments
I do feel they should have already factored the strength of the hoarder urge to hang onto collectively zillions of worthless to them crystals into their plans. The people sitting on those crystals aren't giving them up "for nothing". When Kabam force opens them, they'll get exactly what they would have gotten, but without helping anyone. For the other crystals that won't be force opened, if they're worthless now and will be converted into something worthless still, why not open them and help? Maybe they think that'll "teach Kabam" more than opening them and putting a post on the discord or the forum to express displeasure unambiguously would.
Maybe they did know exactly how pitifully greedy and self-centered we can be as a community and set their internal expectations low but the external "big prize" bar at a nice, round implausible number.
Once we hit the final milestone the event is effectively over and the test is also over. Hitting the final milestone early truncates the test, which is problematic. Not hitting the final milestone is not problematic, unless you have to read all the forum threads about it.
and fair point at the end.
Second, there is also never going to be another realm event with a higher participation percentage as the first realm event, because there is absolutely no activity that exists for players to do that will ever have basically 100% participation, which this event almost certainly has. How many active game accounts do not open any crystals at all during a 35 day period, especially when there is a daily reward panel you cannot close without claiming crystals running during the event?
Finally, there is also likely never going to be another realm event with a peak participation higher than the crystal cleanse. At our peak crystal opening rate players were opening over 3750 crystals per second. There isn't anything players can do at a higher rate that the game is likely to base a realm event upon.
The only way this test would not be an envelope encompassing test of the realm systems is if one day we have a realm event in which the final milestone involves the entire playerbase executing 10 billion light attacks in a month.
The difference between the players opening 650 million crystals and one billion crystals is, in the context of running a test of the realm event systems, insignificant. The only thing you could possibly learn that we aren't likely to learn in this first test would be if the UI designer allocated enough display digits for the realm score. Our lowest daily average is on the order of 12M crystals, which is an average of half a million crystal openings per hour. I cannot think of a thing you could bribe the players to do five hundred thousand times per hour, every hour, twenty four hours a day, for thirty five days, that you could meaningfully base a realm event upon. Even if you handed out Ferraris to every player who participated.
The realm event systems are never going to be asked to do more than what they are being asked to do now. And they are almost certainly never going to be asked to do this again either.
Not really possible to community reach 1.000.000.000
But at least next milestone will.
So I have 175 Tier 2 Dust and with that 25 , I will upgrade one of mine 6 stars, probably Hercules.
Lets see the numbers till now...
550.000.000 crystals openned
If we do a calc of how many crystals were open by each summoner during these days, we can realize how many Summoners we are (more or less)
1st math - Remember that C.O. is the total Crystals Openned right now shown above (550.000.000)
C.O. / 1000=550.000 Summoners
This 1st math is waayy tooo positive. Few people would open this many crystals(1000)
---*---
2nd math
C.O. / 750=733.333 Summoners
---*---
3rd math
C.O. / 500= 1.100.000 Summoners
---*---
4th math (more plausible)
C.O. / 300=1.833.333 Summoners
I think the number may vary from this 4th account to 2.200.000 Summoners
@DNA3000 👍
I exceeded the target Nd i will not take the rewards so its waste of time and effort we need all compensation why there are a lot of profile picture in this event and its hard to achieve why my rewards depend on others hand how lazy they hard or greedy so we need compensation for this
We're likely to get to about 650 million crystals total during the 35 days of the event. That is about 900 crystals per active account on average. That also seems reasonable as many players will open a lot more, but there are those that will open significantly less.
One thing we don't know and clouds these calculations, and is one of the few things about the game I have literally no way to measure even approximately, is early churn. Which is to say, there are probably a lot of people who download the game, play for a day to a week, then quit. Those players open crystals while they are here. Whether they count as "active players" or not is a separate question, but it is possible that there is some small fraction of crystals opened by players that simply aren't here any more.
We very likely have more than 550000 active accounts. The reason being: we have had as many as 260,000+ players on the solo battlegrounds event leaderboard. It seems highly unlikely to me that more than half the players are playing battlegrounds. Also, we've had on the order of 30k alliances on the war leaderboard, and even if you estimate the average alliance to have only 15 players (half full) that's 450k players which doesn't count alliances that don't do war and players not in alliances at all. Every participation data point visible to the players seems to say we have a lot more than 500k players.
Conversely, I think it is almost impossible we have over 1.5 million active accounts, because once upon a time we had 1.3 millions (during the Rocket button days) and it seems highly unlikely to me we would have a lot more players than we did back then. The number is very likely between 600k and 1M.