The number 1 question on this game

NuHuman_2099

- THIS IS NOT A THREAD TO BAG ON KABAM OR ITS GAME OR SYSTEMS OR OTHER LIKELINESS -
This is to purely shed a little light on an opinion i have and would like to see what other people think.
This thread is in compliance of the ToS and Rules on the forums. (It may come close to breaching rule 11 but that is not the intention here, its purely just curiosity among players.)
Any member who slanders or makes outstanding statements will be reported.
With that lets begin.

So the PHC drop, Kabam will always say its 'Random'. But is it really just 'Random' or is there an algorithm to make sure not every crystal opened isnt a 33/33/33 chance opening.
There is 122 different champions in-game and only 119 playable (i think).
Then there are 3* and 4* champs of those 122.
There are less 2* champs but always getting more with Spider-Verse Crystals etc.
Im always interested in seeing the variables out as is.
Im just curious.
Ive seen a lot of people state that they think its down to the games cash wales and that they only get good drops but in reality they just spend more to get more crystals for a higher chance.
(NOTE: I dont think the drop rates are all to bad, at it's core it really is just gambling and i would rather open shard crystals than expect a high rate champion every time i open the PHC)

So my theory;
Each champion from 2* through 4* has a % chance to drop.
Example.
All 2* Champions could be 85% to drop.
All 3* Champions could be 10% and
All 4* Champions could be 5% to drop.

Other theories, Newer champs have a lower chance to drop than an older champion.
Or maybe even, the crystals have a drop algorithm to factor if a champion is 'Common', 'Rare, 'Ultra Rare' or 'Legendary'.
This would explain so many different reasons for not only 2* Champions to drop but for a lot of 3* and 4* Champions to duplicate more frequently.

Comments

Polderpommie

I hate to say it, but your number one question seems to be lacking a question...

WhatRYou

Polderpommie wrote: »

I hate to say it, but your number one question seems to be lacking a question...

I think he's questioning the drop rates but hopefully he's going to ask his question! Im curious!!

colbyscipio987

actually the drop rate for a PHC is 1%

colbyscipio987

colbyscipio987 wrote: »

actually the drop rate for a PHC is 1%

4 star

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DNA3000

NuHuman_2099 wrote: »

So the PHC drop, Kabam will always say its 'Random'. But is it really just 'Random' or is there an algorithm to make sure not every crystal opened isnt a 33/33/33 chance opening.

It is really random.

DNA3000

3ul3r wrote: »

Random is impossible.

Random enough is possible. Many disciplines require random enough and would fail if random enough was not possible. Stochastic simulations, encryption, digital security, and computational analysis all require the ability to generate sequences of numbers that are indistinguishable from random sequences. The requirements of a video game are far lower than the requirements of those areas.

The notion that computers can't "really" generate random numbers and so anyone who claims something in a computer game is random must be in error is itself a misunderstanding how how pseudo-random number generator work, what they actually generate, or what the definition of "randomness" even is.

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TheDemon

NuHuman_2099 wrote: »

Polderpommie wrote: »

I hate to say it, but your number one question seems to be lacking a question...

Fair point...

colbyscipio987 wrote: »

actually the drop rate for a PHC is 1%

Unfortunately if that were true, we woulf have a higher chance at 4* Champions in a PHC simply by the math.

I think you misunderstand, his point was that the chance of getting a 4* is far lower than the 5% you listed and more likely 1%. If the chance or probability of pulling a 4* (any 4*) is 1% then the chance of pulling a particular champ that is a 4* in that crystals is 1 in 119 (assuming all 119 had been released to PHCs and that there was an equal probability of obtaining each of the 119 champs).

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TheDemon

NuHuman_2099 wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

3ul3r wrote: »

Random is impossible.

Random enough is possible. Many disciplines require random enough and would fail if random enough was not possible. Stochastic simulations, encryption, digital security, and computational analysis all require the ability to generate sequences of numbers that are indistinguishable from random sequences. The requirements of a video game are far lower than the requirements of those areas.

The notion that computers can't "really" generate random numbers and so anyone who claims something in a computer game is random must be in error is itself a misunderstanding how how pseudo-random number generator work, what they actually generate, or what the definition of "randomness" even is.

Computers can simulate 'Random' to the best of a coders ability. I have seen some really good algorithms for randomness.
But in this game, Realistically, if it was random... there being 115 3* and 115 4* champions and only 60 2* champs. On randomness, there is a MUCH higher chance for a 3* or 4* champion given that together they make 230/290 with means if the sim is random, the 3* and 4* should drop about 75% of the time.

The best way that I can describe it would be below.

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chev327fox

Yeah as others have said 4*s from a PHC is only like 1% odds of pulling one. Like 10% for 3*s and then 85% for 2*s. I think this is the accepted more or less odds of PHCs (it might not be the case as far as how it is implemented, but seems to at least be the case in practice on our end).

Polderpommie wrote: »

I hate to say it, but your number one question seems to be lacking a question...

I hate to say it... I just read his post and he did not mention that he as "asking a question" in the entire post that I can see. He said he was putting out an "opinion he has". If you mean the title I would have to assume you read it wrong (it is not saying he has a question to ask.... it is saying it is a question on people's minds... as in "what is the drop rate" and he has an opinion/theory to share on it).

NuHuman_2099 wrote: »

Polderpommie wrote: »

I hate to say it, but your number one question seems to be lacking a question...

Fair point...

colbyscipio987 wrote: »

actually the drop rate for a PHC is 1%

Unfortunately if that were true, we woulf have a higher chance at 4* Champions in a PHC simply by the math.

Well I have gotten about 1 in every 100... what would you call that? Again it might not be 1% in implementation... but on our end it is more or less 1% in practice.

DNA3000

NuHuman_2099 wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

3ul3r wrote: »

Random is impossible.

Random enough is possible. Many disciplines require random enough and would fail if random enough was not possible. Stochastic simulations, encryption, digital security, and computational analysis all require the ability to generate sequences of numbers that are indistinguishable from random sequences. The requirements of a video game are far lower than the requirements of those areas.

The notion that computers can't "really" generate random numbers and so anyone who claims something in a computer game is random must be in error is itself a misunderstanding how how pseudo-random number generator work, what they actually generate, or what the definition of "randomness" even is.

Computers can simulate 'Random' to the best of a coders ability. I have seen some really good algorithms for randomness.
But in this game, Realistically, if it was random... there being 115 3* and 115 4* champions and only 60 2* champs. On randomness, there is a MUCH higher chance for a 3* or 4* champion given that together they make 230/290 with means if the sim is random, the 3* and 4* should drop about 75% of the time.

The odds of every possible champion dropping from a PHC are not identical across different tiers of champion. The crystal is not like a 300 sided die that you roll. The PHC is a drop-table based loot box. There is a certain chance of rolling a 2* champion, a certain chance of rolling a 3* champion, and a certain chance of rolling a 4* champion. I haven't seen the crystal implementation in MCOC, but I've seen others and they all tend to work in one of two ways. For simplicity sake I will describe one of them. A reward table is constructed with weights, something like this:

2* champion -> 100
3* champion -> 8
4* champion -> 1

That means for every 100 2* champions you get, you'll get on average 8 3* champions and one 4* champion. Those are the ratios designed for each kind of champion. The computer takes those ratios and rolls a random number from one to the sum of all the numbers, in this case 109. If the computer rolls a number from one to 100, the 2* drop table is selected. If the computer rolls a number from 101 to 108, the 3* drop table is selected. If the computer rolls 109 exactly, the 4* drop table is selected. The number is random, but the reward table weights the drops relative to the type of champion.

When the table is selected, the computer checks the table to see how many champions are in it. So if there are 115 3* champions in the 3* drop table, the computer then rolls a random number from one to 115. That number determines which champion drops to the player.

So basically the computer rolls twice: first to determine which star champion you get, and then which champion of that star rating you get. And the game uses table weights to determine how frequently you get one table relative to the others.

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furymachine84

This is ****. Before Kabam messed with the crystals I'd get 3* & 4* champs from PHCs and featured crystals regularly. I haven't gotten a 4* from a PHC or featured crystal since some time around June. And I get a 3* once out every 200+ now also. But, it's not just those that are affected. Daily, free, arena, loyalty crystals, even. I haven't gotten higher tier items from them since around May or June also. The arena crystals start around September. The drop rates on AQ & War crystals have done down also.
How are we supposed to get enough Class ISO to level a 4* @ R4/5 or worse yet a 5* @ R3 or higher. It's impossible.
So thanks for Kabaming all of your loyal community members Kabam/NetMarkable!

To anyone who tell me to stop whining. Well. Your the one getting the feature 4* 3 out of 5 crystals. So piss off, please. And thank you.

colbyscipio987

PHC:
4 stars- 1%
3 stars- 10%
2 stars- 89%

my opinion:
4 star- 1%
3 star- 5%
2 stars-94%