@DNA3000 How likely is it for Sparky’s 3% evade chance to trigger 3 out of 11 attacks? Video above shows that happening in AW, I don’t know if a 3% evade chance should be expected to trigger as often as above.
Invest in unfazed mastery, That fight would have been much easier because DV's Brother Daniel makes unfazed proc more
@Shrimkins Appreciate the attempt to use a psychology term, but based on how you used “confirmation bias” you may be confusing it with something else.
Confirmation bias is a social psychology concept that refers to people interpreting new evidence in ways that confirms their existing points of view, even when such evidence contradicts their existing points in view. This happens often on the forum, which is why I posted recorded game footage from AW that showed Sparky evading 3 out of 11 attacks. As DNA pointed out, that doesn’t happen often, but it’s not impossible.
LOL evade is a different mechanic from normal passive evades. Icemna's coldsnap does not stop LOL evasion
@gohard123 Unfazed says nothing about only activating for certain types of evading. It’s supposed to have a % chance to activate on all evaded attacks.
@Shrimkins Appreciate the attempt to use a psychology term, but based on how you used “confirmation bias” you may be confusing it with something else.
Confirmation bias is a social psychology concept that refers to people interpreting new evidence in ways that confirms their existing points of view, even when such evidence contradicts their existing points in view. This happens often on the forum, which is why I posted recorded game footage from AW that showed Sparky evading 3 out of 11 attacks. As DNA pointed out, that doesn’t happen often, but it’s not impossible.
Not sure what point you are trying to make but I definitely used it in the right context.
People use anecdotal evidence as fact because of confirmation bias. A prime example is the video you posted.
What bias are they trying to confirm you ask? Well lots of people on this forum have the opinion that kabam is lying, cheating, stealing, and screwing everyone at every turn. So any anecdote that fits that narrative must be true.
Not sure what point you are trying to make but I definitely used it in the right context.
People use anecdotal evidence as fact because of confirmation bias. A prime example is the video you posted.
What bias are they trying to confirm you ask? Well lots of people on this forum have the opinion that kabam is lying, cheating, stealing, and screwing everyone at every turn. So any anecdote that fits that narrative must be true.
Saying that the video I posted qualifies as “anecdotal evidence” makes a number of unfounded assumptions, such as that fight is an outlier compared to other AW boss fights that involved Sparky. In instances where forum moderators ask players to provide video evidence to support their claims, they don’t follow up by disregarding what players provide as “anecdotal evidence”. That would demonstrate confirmation bias that an issue is made-up or doesn’t exist and that video evidence that shows otherwise is a fluke.
While the forum does contain posts about players accusing Kabam of things you mentioned, this thread has managed to remain constructive. I’m not seeing how my actions qualify as confirmation bias or anecdotal evidence. I said Sparky’s evade “seems” to activate more often in difficult content like AW compared to other game modes. I posted that video to show where I was coming from, not to prove that Sparky’s evade chance is greater than 3%.
lol 3%...he evades more than that... I bet someone will say... well, it's possible he can evade 100 times in a row...it's about averages... after than, he won't evade for 10000 hits.
@Shrimkins Appreciate the attempt to use a psychology term, but based on how you used “confirmation bias” you may be confusing it with something else.
Confirmation bias is a social psychology concept that refers to people interpreting new evidence in ways that confirms their existing points of view, even when such evidence contradicts their existing points in view. This happens often on the forum, which is why I posted recorded game footage from AW that showed Sparky evading 3 out of 11 attacks. As DNA pointed out, that doesn’t happen often, but it’s not impossible.
The little bit of confirmation bias that crept in was in noting getting three evades in eleven swings, and not noticing avoiding evades in sixteen swings. I earlier calculated the odds against seeing three evades in eleven swings, but that looked only at the beginning of the fight. I should have calculated the odds against seeing three evades in 27 swings, and those odds are about 26 to one, not 286 to one. Still unusual, but much less unusual.
The most common form of confirmation bias when looking at random chance in games is when people take particular note of, and tend to remember, when uncommon events happen in clusters but do not remember or do not take particular note of all the times when such events don't occur. It is easy to note when three evades happen in eleven swings during clusters. It is much more difficult to keep mental track of whether it has been thirty or fifty swings since the last evade during dry spells.
Comments
Invest in unfazed mastery, That fight would have been much easier because DV's Brother Daniel makes unfazed proc more
Already had unfazed maxed, I removed points from the mastery after I ran LOL and unfazed activated 0 out of 100+ evaded attacks.
LOL evade is a different mechanic from normal passive evades. Icemna's coldsnap does not stop LOL evasion
@Shrimkins Appreciate the attempt to use a psychology term, but based on how you used “confirmation bias” you may be confusing it with something else.
Confirmation bias is a social psychology concept that refers to people interpreting new evidence in ways that confirms their existing points of view, even when such evidence contradicts their existing points in view. This happens often on the forum, which is why I posted recorded game footage from AW that showed Sparky evading 3 out of 11 attacks. As DNA pointed out, that doesn’t happen often, but it’s not impossible.
@gohard123 Unfazed says nothing about only activating for certain types of evading. It’s supposed to have a % chance to activate on all evaded attacks.
Not sure what point you are trying to make but I definitely used it in the right context.
People use anecdotal evidence as fact because of confirmation bias. A prime example is the video you posted.
What bias are they trying to confirm you ask? Well lots of people on this forum have the opinion that kabam is lying, cheating, stealing, and screwing everyone at every turn. So any anecdote that fits that narrative must be true.
Saying that the video I posted qualifies as “anecdotal evidence” makes a number of unfounded assumptions, such as that fight is an outlier compared to other AW boss fights that involved Sparky. In instances where forum moderators ask players to provide video evidence to support their claims, they don’t follow up by disregarding what players provide as “anecdotal evidence”. That would demonstrate confirmation bias that an issue is made-up or doesn’t exist and that video evidence that shows otherwise is a fluke.
While the forum does contain posts about players accusing Kabam of things you mentioned, this thread has managed to remain constructive. I’m not seeing how my actions qualify as confirmation bias or anecdotal evidence. I said Sparky’s evade “seems” to activate more often in difficult content like AW compared to other game modes. I posted that video to show where I was coming from, not to prove that Sparky’s evade chance is greater than 3%.
The little bit of confirmation bias that crept in was in noting getting three evades in eleven swings, and not noticing avoiding evades in sixteen swings. I earlier calculated the odds against seeing three evades in eleven swings, but that looked only at the beginning of the fight. I should have calculated the odds against seeing three evades in 27 swings, and those odds are about 26 to one, not 286 to one. Still unusual, but much less unusual.
The most common form of confirmation bias when looking at random chance in games is when people take particular note of, and tend to remember, when uncommon events happen in clusters but do not remember or do not take particular note of all the times when such events don't occur. It is easy to note when three evades happen in eleven swings during clusters. It is much more difficult to keep mental track of whether it has been thirty or fifty swings since the last evade during dry spells.