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To fully participate in the upcoming Banquet's Alliance Event you will need to be in your alliance for 14 days prior to the event's start date on December 20th. That means, stay in your alliance from December 6th onwards to enjoy all there is to offer in the Banquet event.

# You have a better chance of falling to your death...

Ronin916
Posts:

**85**★
I found this funny, and just wanted to remind everyone thinking about going for IMIW how terrible the odds are. You have a .84% chance to die by falling

Your odds of pulling a 5* IMIW from the Infinity Protocol Crystal are .4%. The odds of pulling a 4* from the Nanite Crystal are .85%, so about as likely as you falling to your own death! Good luck to everyone going for him, and please be careful around ledges...

Your odds of pulling a 5* IMIW from the Infinity Protocol Crystal are .4%. The odds of pulling a 4* from the Nanite Crystal are .85%, so about as likely as you falling to your own death! Good luck to everyone going for him, and please be careful around ledges...

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## Comments

17,603Guardian45★9,158★★★★★The odds of pulling at least one iron man from an increasing number of crystals quite clearly increases. The odds are not 0.4% to pull one iron man from 100 crystals.

1,115★★★There's always one of these guys

45★9,158★★★★★You are just proving how ignorant you are by not reading any of the posts properly. Do you believe that if you flip a coin 1 million times that the chances of you getting at least 1 head is 50%? No, it’s an astronomically high chance.

2,968★★★★If you flip a coin once, the odds are 50%.

If you flip a coin a second time, the odds are 50% each.

The odds of the coin landing on tails TWICE is 25%.

The odds of the coin landing on heads AT LEAST ONCE is 75%.

We're talking about fractions of a percent in this actual situation, but a single outcome's % can increase in a series of independent flips.

Edit: You're welcome for the math. Please call me a nerd.

85★So the odds of you pulling an IMIW from any individual crystal are all the same, but if you open 10, the odds of you pulling him once from those 10 go up with each one. But so do the chances of economic instability and ruining your entire life

517★★★17,603GuardianThe odds of pulling IMIW

per crystalare the same no matter how many you open. But the odds of getting him at all increase if you open more crystals. The OP (humorously) was comparing the lifetime odds of dying by falling with the odds of pulling IMIW in a single opening. The more proper comparison is comparing the lifetime odds of dying by falling with the lifetime odds of pulling IMIW across all the crystal openings you attempt.45★Spend $200 more. You have better odds now!

105★9,158★★★★★You don’t understand statistics. You are twisting the words that people are saying to you. You don’t get better odds per crystal, you get better odds for getting AT LEAST one iron man from more crystals. Please, just do some research, educate yourself. It almost hurts.

957★★Good luck pulling IMIW!

17,603GuardianNo, he doesn't. The odds of pulling IMIW out of 40 crystals is higher than the odds of pulling him in twenty, but if he buys another twenty after opening the first twenty, the odds of pulling IMIW in that twenty are the same as they were in the first twenty. That's because we know what the odds of pulling IMIW in the first twenty are now that those crystals were opened: the odds are now zero, because we actually know what those contents are.

The odds of a coin toss being heads is fifty fifty, but if you flip a coin once and see that it is tails, then the odds of that coin toss being heads is now zero, because we know what the flip is. Statistics is a way of summarizing what we don't know. There are no odds associated with things we already know happened. The odds of the past happening as we witness it happening are exactly 100%. The odds of history happening any other way are zero.

9,158★★★★★I fear that explaining this concept to him is equivalent to smashing your head against a brick wall.

246★★59★683★★★17,603GuardianI think you mean probability and statistics. Odds are just a different way to state probability. Three to one odds is the same thing as 25% probability. But the difference between probability and statistics is pretty subtle.

192,091★★★★★You're almost right. Odds can be calculated from probability, and vice versa, and they are often used as synonyms in conversation, but mathematically they are not the same.