WW2 cutoff prediction
Aakash
Member Posts: 340 ★
Ill predict 4.2M. What do you guys think?
2
Aakash
Member Posts: 340 ★
Comments
Jk i say 5M at least
Some of the predictions floating around are ridiculous, but keeping in mind that there is always an inherent 10-15% margin for error in cutoff predictions due to fluctuations in participation (how many people "get in the pool"), how high Cap will go for is largely a function of how desirable he is combined with how long he's been around (which determines how many people have him already) and whether he's been the basic before. If people perceive him to be worth as much as Magik, then Magik went for about 3 million each time. Between then and now, players are scoring points about 15% faster due to general score inflation, and another 10-15% faster due to 14.0. So hypothetically speaking, if players expend the same effort as they did for Magik, the cutoff will land about 4 million.
On the other hand, people don't always shoot for the same effort. They sometimes aim for a score. If they do, the score will land closer to about 3 million, because inflation will just allow players to finish quicker.
The second highest repeat basic was Dr. Strange, who scored about 2.5 million more recently. If Cap is valued comparable to Strange, the scores could end up closer to 2.5 million.
That makes the reasonable range of cutoff scoring something between 2.5 million and 4 million. I think the figure of merit is about 3 million, maybe a little higher. But if the right 12 thousand players disagree, the score could be significantly higher or lower.
I will be very surprised if Cap goes for under 2.3 million, or over 4.3 million. But anything within that range is not entirely unreasonable.
Price is wrong, Bob!
Basic cannot be duped, it's just a single SIG point.
I think cutoff could be lower because many cheaters, sharers, etc were banned. Just look the huge down in the 2nd GP round.
I think most people still call that being duped, as it is in fact duplicating the champ.
Gwenpool's drop in round two was almost identical to Voodoo's round two drop, and even digging deeper into the scoring I don't think there's any evidence the bans materially altered arena cutoffs. I'm sure some number of grinders were banned, but not enough to show an obvious change in scoring.
I think you're wrong. Many predicted the lower cutoff because of the ban, and it seems they were right. We will see in future featured's, but I believe the ban caused the drop.