Blade crystal drop rate not 20%

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  • big_mags2big_mags2 Posts: 16

    big_mags2 said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    I'm glad you've got jokes Miike but it's a fact kabam has messed up on multiple, multiple occasions so its not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen again. Maybe it was corrected after the fact since all those pulls occurred within the first hour. Rather then patronizing a customer with a serious inquiry, maybe you talk to the "team" and give a straight answer.
    No joke here. This is 100% accurate information, and it is something that I checked with the team on. There was no bug or error, and there was a 20.x% Chance of getting Blade from that Crystal. This is how Odds work. You could open 1 million of them and potentially never get Blade (very very very unlikely), or you can open 1 and get him (it happened to a lot of people).
    Fine. I'd hoped you guys would admit a mistake but I guess we're the "unluckiest " alliance in the game. Imagine the odds of this occurring AND someone like myself who was actually paying attention.
    Btw- I think there's only about 1or 2 guys in this thread who ACTUALLY understand how probabilities work. While every event is independent, there's still an aggregate probability for multiple events. So just stating "that's how odds work" doesn't really mean anything. By throwing out some stupid analogy about how something may not happen bears zero proof or evidence.
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Posts: 16

    big_mags2 said:

    big_mags2 said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    I'm glad you've got jokes Miike but it's a fact kabam has messed up on multiple, multiple occasions so its not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen again. Maybe it was corrected after the fact since all those pulls occurred within the first hour. Rather then patronizing a customer with a serious inquiry, maybe you talk to the "team" and give a straight answer.
    I mean you guys can't even get SA rewards out on a consistent basis and they've been a part of the game for 4+ years
    SA Rewards being late has absolutely nothing to do with the probability you will pull a champ from there...your argument is bad, and you should feel bad too.
    I don't. Its evidence that they make mistakes. Ignoring those fact and blindly believing they don't mess up is something to feel bad about.
  • OrdalcaOrdalca Posts: 374 ★★
    edited March 1
    You don't need to be insulting. If you disagree with our calculations, feel free to show us your own math about the "aggregate probability for multiple events" instead of "my gut says we should have won."

    Independent events have a well defined formula for figuring out probabilities of multiple events, which only become slightly complicated when figuring out at least X occurrences. Figuring out 0 is trivial. If you are claiming we don't know that, prove that you do.
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 254

  • JChanceH9JChanceH9 Posts: 262
    Personally opened 5 and got him on the 5th crystal.
  • HendrossHendross Posts: 254
    Think how happy the other guy is... he got 3 in-a-row ~ .8%
  • big_mags2 said:

    Time for kabam to be honest and admit that the drop rate for blade crystal is not 20%. I'm sure some may argue and say that he dropped alot but that's anecdotal. I have statistical proof that its not. When the crystal initially came out my alliance opened 22 crystals and no blade. I personally opened 2, then started tracking what was opened since there were so many misses. Now someone might say that is too small a pool of data to come to that conclusion. However, with just that small sample size, the probability of not pulling a blade out of 22 crystals is statistically impossible, if the drop rate was indeed 20%. Now, maybe they eventually fixed it, which may be reason to explain if it indeed dropped alot later. It happened with the sentry feature crystal. But at least back then they admitted he wasn't in there and compensated thusly. Personally, I think the drop rate was more around 5%, which used to be the drop rate for the initial blade crystal or there's some secondary factor to determine who that "20%" is, though that would be fraud since the message specifically said "you" have a 20% chance, not just a general statement that would cover everyone. Kabam, please be honest and admit that the drop rate was not 20% and compensate individuals properly. I will also be submitting a complaint to apple/ google regarding this as a violation of your "probability standards" but I'd like to give you time to correct the matter before submitting. Thanks in advance.

    Whyumad bro. I popped 5 fgmc and obtained 5* blade over a year ago. Ezgame ezlife namsayin?
  • LormifLormif Posts: 4,495 ★★★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    I'm afraid none of you understand what the phrase "statistically impossible" means. It basically means its possible but the odds are so low that its almost impossible, which in this case it is. And while every pull has its own probability, 20%, ignoring the odds in the aggregate shows a lack of understanding of how probabilities work. I'd suggest taking the time to actually calculate the odds prior to making a comment. Honestly, I posted this to get a response from kabam since they're always directing us here.

    You are confusing the term statistically impossible with statistically improbable....

    Also you seem to be misunderstanding how probabilities work. You need atleast a sample size of 1000 random openings to be able to determine the probability to a reasonable margin of error. Yes opening 22 and not getting a single blade is improbable, but still no where near impossible.
  • Drooped2 said:

    big_mags2 said:

    Time for kabam to be honest and admit that the drop rate for blade crystal is not 20%. I'm sure some may argue and say that he dropped alot but that's anecdotal. I have statistical proof that its not. When the crystal initially came out my alliance opened 22 crystals and no blade. I personally opened 2, then started tracking what was opened since there were so many misses. Now someone might say that is too small a pool of data to come to that conclusion. However, with just that small sample size, the probability of not pulling a blade out of 22 crystals is statistically impossible, if the drop rate was indeed 20%. Now, maybe they eventually fixed it, which may be reason to explain if it indeed dropped alot later. It happened with the sentry feature crystal. But at least back then they admitted he wasn't in there and compensated thusly. Personally, I think the drop rate was more around 5%, which used to be the drop rate for the initial blade crystal or there's some secondary factor to determine who that "20%" is, though that would be fraud since the message specifically said "you" have a 20% chance, not just a general statement that would cover everyone. Kabam, please be honest and admit that the drop rate was not 20% and compensate individuals properly. I will also be submitting a complaint to apple/ google regarding this as a violation of your "probability standards" but I'd like to give you time to correct the matter before submitting. Thanks in advance.

    Whyumad bro. I popped 5 fgmc and obtained 5* blade over a year ago. Ezgame ezlife namsayin?
    Mines sig 200 never popped a blade feature all basics yo
    Fgmc = featured grand master crystals (300 units each), not the 15k shard crystals
  • LormifLormif Posts: 4,495 ★★★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    big_mags2 said:

    big_mags2 said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    I'm glad you've got jokes Miike but it's a fact kabam has messed up on multiple, multiple occasions so its not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen again. Maybe it was corrected after the fact since all those pulls occurred within the first hour. Rather then patronizing a customer with a serious inquiry, maybe you talk to the "team" and give a straight answer.
    I mean you guys can't even get SA rewards out on a consistent basis and they've been a part of the game for 4+ years
    SA Rewards being late has absolutely nothing to do with the probability you will pull a champ from there...your argument is bad, and you should feel bad too.
    I don't. Its evidence that they make mistakes. Ignoring those fact and blindly believing they don't mess up is something to feel bad about.
    Everyone makes mistakes, you have made lots of them in this very thread, it does not mean everything you do is a mistake and the same with kabam.
  • FadedhunterFadedhunter Posts: 2
    I’m confused as to why you think .59% percent is statistically impossible. If we lower that to .5 to make it easy, that outcome would happen to one out of every 200 people. If 1000 summonses opened 22 crystals, then approx. 5 wouldn’t get blade. That’s sucks but that happens, and those people exist. And there are way more than 1000 players so tons of people didn’t get blade. And besides the math even, why are your 22 anecdotal pills “statistical evidence” when all other anecdotal pulls don’t count and prove nothing? That alone makes no sense.
  • MrsGondola420MrsGondola420 Posts: 121
    big_mags2 said:

    Again, I said that there would be people that argued against it based on anecdotal information. Its almost impossible to open 22 crystals and not get one at 20%. That's not just "bad luck". Its statistically impossible. It's similar odds to flipping a coin10 times and getting only heads.

    Except you didn't open 22 crystals, your alliance did. If you had opened 22 by yourself and didn't get him, I'd get the complaint. But if everyone only opened 1 or 2, then yeah there's a good chance you still won't pull him. If you're comparing it to flipping a coin, then your odds would really be based off of 10 people each flipping 1 coin.
  • MabkaZuckMabkaZuck Posts: 75
    I got Blade 2 times from normal 5* crystal this week. No joke..
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Posts: 16
    Here's my last comment and since it involves speculation it will probably get the head closed. However, with all other crystals having rates no higher then 5% for what players may want, there's no way to gather enough results to actually test whether the odds are correct. However, 20% was a big enough number that it would allow a small pool of results to determine if the odds were correct, which is why I was able to test them in this case. Kabam is a company. Companies seek profits. So its not unbelievable to think they may skew drop rates to their favor since lower then expected drop rates= more money. Blade has been a huge money maker for them, which is why he's had several runs, which no other champ has. Lowering drop rates, and offering 5 star shard deals during that time, equal more profits. While I'm not accusing them of doing that, I'm not saying its impossible. You know, they could change the rate on all the crystals or maybe just this crystal. That's how odds work:)
  • LormifLormif Posts: 4,495 ★★★★★

    big_mags2 said:

    Again, I said that there would be people that argued against it based on anecdotal information. Its almost impossible to open 22 crystals and not get one at 20%. That's not just "bad luck". Its statistically impossible. It's similar odds to flipping a coin10 times and getting only heads.

    Except you didn't open 22 crystals, your alliance did. If you had opened 22 by yourself and didn't get him, I'd get the complaint. But if everyone only opened 1 or 2, then yeah there's a good chance you still won't pull him. If you're comparing it to flipping a coin, then your odds would really be based off of 10 people each flipping 1 coin.
    technically who opens them does not matter, the odds are exactly the same if it is 22 people or a single person.
  • MrsGondola420MrsGondola420 Posts: 121
    Lormif said:

    big_mags2 said:

    Again, I said that there would be people that argued against it based on anecdotal information. Its almost impossible to open 22 crystals and not get one at 20%. That's not just "bad luck". Its statistically impossible. It's similar odds to flipping a coin10 times and getting only heads.

    Except you didn't open 22 crystals, your alliance did. If you had opened 22 by yourself and didn't get him, I'd get the complaint. But if everyone only opened 1 or 2, then yeah there's a good chance you still won't pull him. If you're comparing it to flipping a coin, then your odds would really be based off of 10 people each flipping 1 coin.
    technically who opens them does not matter, the odds are exactly the same if it is 22 people or a single person.
    If a single person opens 22 crystals, they have a better chance of pulling him than the person who opens 1. 22 chances to pull him vs 1. 20% still isn't that big of a chance to pull 1 specific champ considering the amount of options in the crystal itself.
  • AxeCopFireAxeCopFire Posts: 1,109 ★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    Again, I said that there would be people that argued against it based on anecdotal information. Its almost impossible to open 22 crystals and not get one at 20%. That's not just "bad luck". Its statistically impossible. It's similar odds to flipping a coin10 times and getting only heads.

    The only thing that's almost impossible here is your impossibly poor understanding of probability and math in general
  • LormifLormif Posts: 4,495 ★★★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    Here's my last comment and since it involves speculation it will probably get the head closed. However, with all other crystals having rates no higher then 5% for what players may want, there's no way to gather enough results to actually test whether the odds are correct. However, 20% was a big enough number that it would allow a small pool of results to determine if the odds were correct, which is why I was able to test them in this case. Kabam is a company. Companies seek profits. So its not unbelievable to think they may skew drop rates to their favor since lower then expected drop rates= more money. Blade has been a huge money maker for them, which is why he's had several runs, which no other champ has. Lowering drop rates, and offering 5 star shard deals during that time, equal more profits. While I'm not accusing them of doing that, I'm not saying its impossible. You know, they could change the rate on all the crystals or maybe just this crystal. That's how odds work:)

    Except a small pool is never a accurate statistical test to determine if they are correct, again sample size is important and your sample is vastly too small to make the assumptions you are making. Skewing the drop rates intentionally in a digital game that makes millions amount is stupid, it is all risk for little reward, especially since this is not a unit crystal. Also in your last 2 sentences, that is NOT how odds work.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 4,495 ★★★★★

    Lormif said:

    big_mags2 said:

    Again, I said that there would be people that argued against it based on anecdotal information. Its almost impossible to open 22 crystals and not get one at 20%. That's not just "bad luck". Its statistically impossible. It's similar odds to flipping a coin10 times and getting only heads.

    Except you didn't open 22 crystals, your alliance did. If you had opened 22 by yourself and didn't get him, I'd get the complaint. But if everyone only opened 1 or 2, then yeah there's a good chance you still won't pull him. If you're comparing it to flipping a coin, then your odds would really be based off of 10 people each flipping 1 coin.
    technically who opens them does not matter, the odds are exactly the same if it is 22 people or a single person.
    If a single person opens 22 crystals, they have a better chance of pulling him than the person who opens 1. 22 chances to pull him vs 1. 20% still isn't that big of a chance to pull 1 specific champ considering the amount of options in the crystal itself.
    except that is not the complaint he is making,t he complaint he is making is that the group has a whole did not reach 20%, not that the individual did not.
  • Kabam LyraKabam Lyra Posts: 2,561 ★★★
    Hello all,

    Since the initial question has already been addressed and this discussion is veering off topic, it will now be closed.
This discussion has been closed.