chances of pulling 5 star featured
Yantos
Member Posts: 15
what are the chances of pulling the 5 star featured champion?
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Following the Kabam's stats system your chances of pulling those champs are 1576.
an alliance teammate had 3 tries and he missed on all 3 so its all about luck
About 75% if you use his account as your guide.
You should watch Joel Line. Also, since they open basically 0 crystals since there's so few youtubers it's dumb to base anything off a sample size of 0.
Pretty good I'd say
If the drop rate was 20% that's nearly impossible even though the pulls are unrelated.
If the drop rates don't have a shifting algorithm I don't think we would see such huge differences in the relative success. One person going 3 for 3 and another person going 0 for 23 don't suggest fixed odds.
I opened a few. 9 to be exactly. Pulled Iceman zero times.
Kabam needs to get on with it and start making 5* more attainable or start releasing T2A. The month long grind for 5* shards to drop 15k on a feature and get She Hulk is starting to get old.
Conspiracy theory much? No point in manipulating based on previous pulls or within a subset such as an alliance. Sorry about your and others' luck, but going 0 for 20 is entirely possible if the feature rate is 20%. You are much more likely each time to not get the feature, odds are against us every single time we try for one.
Simple mathematics man just because you go for 5 crystals or 22 crystals doesn't mean you're any more likely to get the featured. It's like flipping a coin every throw is 50% but you can go 4 spins without getting heads and not getting heads 4 times does not make it any more likely you're going to get heads your next flip. The variable resets every spin or in this case crystal so you could theoretically go hundreds of crystals without getting a 5* featured with a 20% drop rate. Since there are so many people who play this game it is not surprising people go 0/20 , i've heard of 1/15, 5/7 even 12/16 there is a spectrum that balances out the statistics some people go 1/22 while there is someone out there that goes 21/22 some people are just on the lower end of the spectrum. People hear more about the bad pulls because it is easier to complain than to boast you see lots of posts on the forums about crappy pulls but very few if not any threads have been made for the sole purpose of showing off something like a 4/5 featured crystal opening. Kabam does not manipulate the pulls I've seen screen shots where 6 people in a row on the alliance home screen get a featured hero so they don't limit it per alliance and I counted on facebook comments and reddit when the stark spidey crystals came out and after 70+ posts and comments about what people got it was around a 20% drop rate after I counted it all up. There is no conspiracy with drop rates some people are just very unlucky.
Good point but as a math man you should know that the odds of not pulling a feature should get smaller and smaller as you open more crystals.
Not really true. Each pull is independent so you have the same (roughly) 80% chance to miss. Now the likelihood of any particular longer sequence (such as 0 for 20) is more rare than a particular shorter sequence (0 for 10). But that doesn't mean that person is "due". Actually, his odds of becoming 0 for 21 are more likely than his odds of becoming 1 for 21 at this point.
If the odds of pulling the featured are 20%, then the odds of opening 23 in a row without getting the featured is 169.4 to one. In other words, if ten thousand players have pulled 23 5* featured crystals, then statistically speaking 59 of them should have had that bad luck. Zero out of 20 is only 86.7 to one: 115 out of ten thousand should get that bad luck streak on average.
Good point but as a math man you should know that the odds of not pulling a feature should get smaller and smaller as you open more crystals.
You contradicted yourself in your response. Are the odds of rolling a 6 on dice ten times in a row the same as the odds of not rolling a 6 ten times in a row? Each roll is independent of each other but the sequence itself has its own odds. Also, I never said that anyone was due, but it certainly is a broken and demoralizing system.
Imagine you are flipping a perfectly even coin that comes up heads 50% of the time (and tails 50% of the time). Suppose that you simply keep flipping until you randomly get 10 tails in a row. Now look at the coin. Tell me what property of that coin is somehow changing in such away to make the odds of getting heads now better than they were when you started.
In paper and pen RPG games this idea was commonly called "rolling out the 1s" Because people believed that statistics dictated that a die was forced by mathematics to generate about the same amount of each number, if you "prerolled" a die and watched what numbers fell, if you kept rolling different dice until one happened to roll a lot of 1s randomly, you could set that die aside knowing that in the future it had a lower chance of rolling a 1. You could save that die for a time when you absolutely, positively, needed to avoid rolling a 1.
I shouldn't have to say this, but this is ridiculous.
5* fragments are at least twice as easy to get as they used to be, maybe more. Kabam started making 5* champions easier to get a while ago. The new arena system drops more fragments. The calendar has been dropping more fragments. Occasional events like the rifts contain 5* fragments and crystals. And they recently increased the fragments generated by the monthly events (and stated the increase was permanent for those types of events). That's not just 5* fragments, but all fragments have gotten easier to get and 4* champs indirectly generate 5* fragments as well (via duping) so an increase in fragments across the board ultimately translates to more 5* fragments and crystals.
Over the last twelve months, in my opinion the trend has been obviously upward.
Not true I am going to use the coin analogy because many people make this mistake. When you flip a coin and get head since there is a 50/50 chance at both outcomes with your logic the next toss should be more likely to be tails. That is not the case since when you go for the second toss there is still the same 50% chance to get heads. If you get heads 3 more times the next toss is not any more likely to be tails than the last four. The coin does not take the past into consideration and the past flips have no impact on the next. Same with the crystals there is no variable change, past outcomes do not effect the variable and every crystal is individual so for every crystal the variable resets to 20%. This percent chance for a featured does not change so even though it may seem you are more likely to pull the featured the longer you haven''t pulled one mathematically that is not the case, it is random thus chances cannot decrease or increase no matter what the past outcomes were. You made a common mistake most people who are unfamiliar with the maths of probability make so before you judge my mathematical logic please make sure yours is correct.
You are misquoting me to prove yourself correct. If I had 10 shots at a 5* feature, then you better believe I have a better chance of pulling a feature than if I only had 1 crystal. The set of 10 has a better chance than any given 1 crystal.
What you are saying is if I open 9 and haven't received a 5* feature, then I have no better of a chance than the last 9 tries which is true. You are referring to the gamblers fallicy which many people do misunderstand. Just because I have opened 9 doesn't mean I have better or worse odds on the last one.
Perhaps you should improve your reading comprehension skills or troll less on the forums.
Here is some reading material in case you truly believe you are still correct.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Err, what you said was "Good point but as a math man you should know that the odds of not pulling a feature should get smaller and smaller as you open more crystals." The straight forward way to parse that sentence (which is how I parsed it) is that it is saying with each crystal you open, the odds change.
What it sounds like you meant to say is "the odds of not pulling a feature should be smaller if you open a larger number of crystals."
1/ Someone has to program the crystal opening rates so it approximates x%.
2/ There should be an audit or check to verify whether the total crystal opening % of the featured champ approximates the % in 1/.
Maybe it is not necessary but it seems logical to collect data to test if x% to obtain featured champ is within the range.
This leads me to ask whether there is an adjustment to the % in order that the overall result will hit x% or thereabouts.
So, when too many people win the featured champ, the % has to be reduced and vice versa.
If this is right, the coin analogy may not be so accurate and not relevant.