Really angry about greater ascendant crystal...

rtilghman

Having fully explored all the mini quests and the first 3 levels of the event quest (finished but not explore master) I've now opened 4 greater ascendant crystals from rockets scrapyard. It is SUPPOSED to include mostly t4cc based on everything I've read so far. My rewards?

18k t4b shards
24k t4b shards
18k t4b shards
18k t4b shards

Honestly, this is, in a word, bull$@&%. I wasted 200k scrap and got all t4b shards? What the hell is the drop rate? I had high hopes that scrapyard would at least let those of us who don't get rewarded by the gamed drop rates for map 5/6 crystals another way to get some t4cc shards. However, it looks like, again, you guys are screwing us.

So frustrated about this... the entire event has been a complete waste as I sit here with a backlog of guys who can do nothing and 25 t4b rotting on the shelf.

Rt

No_More_Heroes

Oh man that sucks. Sending positive energy your way.

DNA3000

That's some tough luck, but I don't know where you read the Greater Ascendant Crystal contains mostly T4CC fragments. I personally answered that question like six or seven times on the old forums, and my answer was basically the same every time: it contains T4B and T4CC fragments with a chance for fully formed T4B and T4CC crystals.

Based on my own experience with them and other reports in the past, the lowest reward seems to be 4500 t4cc frags or 18000 t4b frags. No one has a good handle on the likelihood on getting T4B vs T4CC components. All that I recall Kabam saying, in the one post I recall Kabam Miike making, echoed what the Greater Ascendant Crystal offer listed as potential contents: t4b and t4cc fragments with chance for fully formed crystal. Out of all the times I opened GAC, my recollection is that I get T4B and T4CC about half the time each. But that is a very small sample size.

I hope your luck improves.

Immortal

Those are the "lucky" folks that you read about. Most of us just settle for whatever result... EXPECT the WORST will make it easier . It's like the 5* crystals. Those videos hardly reflect anything even close to actual result..

DLegend

You can't trust every crystal. Treat crystals like a PHC, expect for the worst.

Yelin547

The only one I got was 7k mystic t4c shards. Sorry about your luck

Justice_Evo_8

Sucks to hear @rtilghman but I would love to be able to trade you some class cats for some basics lol.

rtilghman

Based the descriptions and mikes posts t4c and t4b shards should have an equal weighting in the odds... with greater shard counts harder to pull and the full t4 as the rare return (b or cc). This would mean, for example,something like a 45/45% odd of either cc or b shards, with full catalysts something like 5% (and I'm sure even that is generous)

For anyone to pull 4 t4b shard returns in a row means there is something completely wrong with the odds engine behind it... that should be almost impossible. As I see it there are a couple possibilities:

1) the engine is broken
2) the odds are rigged

We all know that the map crystals, phc, and even 5* crystals are rigged, just comparing the returns in your alliance between heavy spenders and light or non spenders illustrated that. I was hoping they didn't game these crystals as well, and apparently I was wrong.

Rt

Yelin547

I feel like nobody understands odds. You get lucky and you get unlucky. Sometimes the extremes. Each of your chances are affected by every user... flip a coin 50 times it will be close to heads 25 times. Sometimes you get 12+ heads in a row, sometimes you end up with almost 40 tails. In the very long run it evens out.

No_More_Heroes

General rule of thumb...change the word immediately preceding the word "crystal" to "disappointment" and you know what you are in store for. For example, greater Ascendant Crystal becomes Greater Disappointment Crystal...more accurate representation.

rtilghman

I understand odds and statistics just fine, but thanks playing. I even understand the illogical nature of the let's make a deal conundrum. However, i also understand regression to mean, and that, if the odds are as described, even if it's a coin flip, the chances of flipping the same side four times in a row is very low... and gets lower with each flip. Odds of flipping heads or tails always even, odds of flipping same side x times in a row? Not at all even... increasingly unlikely in fact.

The point is that they already game the odds (spend money = greater chance at rare returns), so it's not a pure chance engine as it is. On that note, I'd expect them to incorporate, along with their "money algorithm", a control against rare negative outcomes... the extremes of the odds curve.

Apparently I expect too much. The money algorithm only takes money as an input.

Rt

GroundedWisdom

rtilghman wrote: »

I understand odds and statistics just fine, but thanks playing. I even understand the illogical nature of the let's make a deal conundrum. However, i also understand regression to mean, and that, if the odds are as described, even if it's a coin flip, the chances of flipping the same side four times in a row is very low... and gets lower with each flip. Odds of flipping heads or tails always even, odds of flipping same side x times in a row? Not at all even... increasingly unlikely in fact.

The point is that they already game the odds (spend money = greater chance at rare returns), so it's not a pure chance engine as it is. On that note, I'd expect them to incorporate, along with their "money algorithm", a control against rare negative outcomes... the extremes of the odds curve.

Apparently I expect too much. The money algorithm only takes money as an input.

Rt

They do not alter the Crystals based on spending habits. They roll how they roll. You had 4 very unfavorable rolls.

rtilghman

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

rtilghman wrote: »

I understand odds and statistics just fine, but thanks playing. I even understand the illogical nature of the let's make a deal conundrum. However, i also understand regression to mean, and that, if the odds are as described, even if it's a coin flip, the chances of flipping the same side four times in a row is very low... and gets lower with each flip. Odds of flipping heads or tails always even, odds of flipping same side x times in a row? Not at all even... increasingly unlikely in fact.

The point is that they already game the odds (spend money = greater chance at rare returns), so it's not a pure chance engine as it is. On that note, I'd expect them to incorporate, along with their "money algorithm", a control against rare negative outcomes... the extremes of the odds curve.

Apparently I expect too much. The money algorithm only takes money as an input.

Rt

They do not alter the Crystals based on spending habits. They roll how they roll. You had 4 very unfavorable rolls.

I'll take that bet, and I'll even give you 5 to 1 on your money. They most certainly do manipulate drop rates based on spending habits. We've done some heavy analysis on it in our alliance, and there is no questioning that the folks who spend more heavily pull more full t4cc and rare heroes from crystals than those who spend little or nothing.

Why do you think heavy spenders happen to suddenly have multi duped featured heroes minutes after they come out? You think they just get lucky every time and pull the featured hero? Cmon now dude... refer back to the statistics posts above, it's not possible.

The crystals are, in a word, totally manipulated. If you don't believe that you're fooling yourself.

Rt

GroundedWisdom

rtilghman wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

rtilghman wrote: »

I understand odds and statistics just fine, but thanks playing. I even understand the illogical nature of the let's make a deal conundrum. However, i also understand regression to mean, and that, if the odds are as described, even if it's a coin flip, the chances of flipping the same side four times in a row is very low... and gets lower with each flip. Odds of flipping heads or tails always even, odds of flipping same side x times in a row? Not at all even... increasingly unlikely in fact.

The point is that they already game the odds (spend money = greater chance at rare returns), so it's not a pure chance engine as it is. On that note, I'd expect them to incorporate, along with their "money algorithm", a control against rare negative outcomes... the extremes of the odds curve.

Apparently I expect too much. The money algorithm only takes money as an input.

Rt

They do not alter the Crystals based on spending habits. They roll how they roll. You had 4 very unfavorable rolls.

I'll take that bet, and I'll even give you 5 to 1 on your money. They most certainly do manipulate drop rates based on spending habits. We've done some heavy analysis on it in our alliance, and there is no questioning that the folks who spend more heavily pull more full t4cc and rare heroes from crystals than those who spend little or nothing.

Why do you think heavy spenders happen to suddenly have multi duped featured heroes minutes after they come out? You think they just get lucky every time and pull the featured hero? Cmon now dude... refer back to the statistics posts above, it's not possible.

The crystals are, in a word, totally manipulated. If you don't believe that you're fooling yourself.

Rt

Take off the tin foil. I have analysis of my own. I've spent 4 figures, and have feedback from those that have spent 5. The Crystals are not manipulated based on spending habits. The Drop Rate is the same for everyone. The whole conspiracy is subjective at best.

winterthur

rtilghman wrote: »

However, i also understand regression to mean, and that, if the odds are as described, even if it's a coin flip, the chances of flipping the same side four times in a row is very low... and gets lower with each flip. Odds of flipping heads or tails always even, odds of flipping same side x times in a row? Not at all even... increasingly unlikely in fact.

I am wondering if the "2nd" or "3rd" flip is credited to someone else, so yours or my "2nd" is not the sequence after the "1st". I am reading players in certain countries or location has higher drop rates.

I just opened a 4* KK (I know it's is meh) on PHC, in my current location (-3hr time zone from home location), and does it suggest something?

AzureLightning

Thanks to this, i will not get that GAC from rocket's scrapyard.

BigMo

Sorry to hear you had bad luck. I opened two GACs and the first one was T4C shards and the second was T4B shards. So the T4C shards are in there. It wouldn't surprise me if the odds are you get T4B more often but the GACs are decent if you understand what you are getting. I wish they had just the T4C shard crystals you get for doing the monthly event quests. I would buy those for sure. Anyways keep at it you will get there eventually.

GroundedWisdom

BigMo wrote: »

Sorry to hear you had bad luck. I opened two GACs and the first one was T4C shards and the second was T4B shards. So the T4C shards are in there. It wouldn't surprise me if the odds are you get T4B more often but the GACs are decent if you understand what you are getting. I wish they had just the T4C shard crystals you get for doing the monthly event quests. I would buy those for sure. Anyways keep at it you will get there eventually.

Yes, my expectations on the Crystals is to hope for the rare, but expect the guaranteed. It's unfortunate that the OP used all their Scrap. I feel for them. That's why I never spent mine in one place. I want to get the most value all-round. I suppose it could be worse. T4B is always useful.

winterthur

Is it guaranteed half a TB4C? I would like to go for it then instead of Carb core.

BigMo

I forget how many shards I got. I didn't think it was nearly as many as the OP says they received but maybe it was. I also used some of my scrap to get cores to rank up assassin. I would say get both GAC and cores if you can.

winterthur

I can only reach a max of 65k scrap till end of contest, already used 150k to purchase 2 T4BC.

Maybe I'll go for 1 GAC and the rest on T1AC.
If GAC gives minimum 18k T4BC fragments, I just need to wait till mid July to be able to rank up another 4☆.

Anyone can confirm?

Fel_95

"It is SUPPOSED to include mostly t4cc based on everything I've read so far"

who said that? it's widely known Ascendant crystal drop rate sucks

Fhap1234

Look on the bright side. At least it didn't drop isos like it usually does.

Fuzzylumps

In this game if there is a chance - it means disappointment. Sometimes I am scared I might pull a 2* from a 4* crystal - Hope your luck improves. I have same bad luck just with PHC

Jaffacaked

It's the chance you take, you didn't have to spend money on them so it's a nice little Brucie bonus from kabam, another words it's free so stop whining

rtilghman

Lot to comment on. Here goes, working my way up:

First, my time is money, so it certainly is not free. Finishing all the quests (full explore) and rocket junk takes time. If it's not worth it kabaam should just say that (with the real drop rates)and I won't bother.

Second, this is the GAC, not the AC. The crystal is different, in that there's no ISO and it's all t4. So, I'm not thankful it didn't drop ISO or something else because it's not supposed to suck.

Third, read the crystal description and mikes comments again. There is no qualifier between t4b and t4cc shards... they are both supposed to be common, with greater shard packs and full t4cc in increasing rarity.

Fourth, that's not how odds work. My odds of a particular pull in terms of the math are unique to me; my chance of pulling b shards is the same as pulling cc shards, but the chance to do so repeatedly should be increasingly low. What someone else does has no effect on this law of averages and regression to mean.

Fifth, I'm sorry man, but manipulated drop rates are not a conspiracy theory. If you don't believe me just do an analysis with your own alliance. Ask everyone how much they spend per month or quarter and then look at drop rates. You'll see clustering that simply cannot be accounted for by chance. Is it huge? No, but it's enough to matter when each t4cc and featured hero is so critical. Case in point, the head of our alliance, who spends a lot, regularly has incredible pulls, including three nebulas across two accounts (both big spend accounts) in three tries. 3 nebulas in 3 tries bro. The folks who don't spend haven't pulled one.

Rt

JSnook

rtilghman wrote: »

Lot to comment on. Here goes, working my way up:


Fourth, that's not how odds work. My odds of a particular pull in terms of the math are unique to me; my chance of pulling b shards is the same as pulling cc shards, but the chance to do so repeatedly should be increasingly low. What someone else does has no effect on this law of averages and regression to mean.

Rt

It's been stated that drop rates are not specific to you, but the community as a whole.

rtilghman

JSnook wrote: »

rtilghman wrote: »

Lot to comment on. Here goes, working my way up:


Fourth, that's not how odds work. My odds of a particular pull in terms of the math are unique to me; my chance of pulling b shards is the same as pulling cc shards, but the chance to do so repeatedly should be increasingly low. What someone else does has no effect on this law of averages and regression to mean.

Rt

It's been stated that drop rates are not specific to you, but the community as a whole.

That's true, but again, that's not how averages work in general. The chance of an event happening to a particular person is isolated... for example, I should just as easily be the guy who gets a good pull as I am the bad one, which means that my "odds" are unique to me. This is a math thing, it isn't really questionable.

Rt

JSnook

As the RNG isn't questionable, and it's possible you just have a run of bad luck. I have it too occasionally.

LocoMotives

I'll use your stated odds of 45% basic frags and 45% class frags as fact. Each time you open one, you have a 45% chance it will be basics. Obviously, this means a high % and this % is static for each and every Crystal opened. Your odds of pulling class frags does not increase based on previous pulls just as your odds of pulling basic frags does not decrease.

Your statement that the odds of pulling all basics is a smaller chance than 45% is correct, but that goes for every possible scenario as well. All basics has the same odds as pulling basic/basic/basic/class or class/basic/basic/basic. Each set of outcomes is unique with the same odds of occurring over a 4 Crystal stretch (assuming equal % chance for the given outcomes). 4 crystals is nowhere near enough to expect a regression to the overall odds. If you opened 100, you could expect a number close to the actual odds but there would still be a great deal of error built into these numbers.

If you want to complain about manipulated rates, that is an entirely different idea that I won't address. But the statistics of your 4 "bad" pulls do not make you entirely unique.

rtilghman

Mikeself9 wrote: »

I'll use your stated odds of 45% basic frags and 45% class frags as fact. Each time you open one, you have a 45% chance it will be basics. Obviously, this means a high % and this % is static for each and every Crystal opened. Your odds of pulling class frags does not increase based on previous pulls just as your odds of pulling basic frags does not decrease.

Your statement that the odds of pulling all basics is a smaller chance than 45% is correct, but that goes for every possible scenario as well. All basics has the same odds as pulling basic/basic/basic/class or class/basic/basic/basic. Each set of outcomes is unique with the same odds of occurring over a 4 Crystal stretch (assuming equal % chance for the given outcomes). 4 crystals is nowhere near enough to expect a regression to the overall odds. If you opened 100, you could expect a number close to the actual odds but there would still be a great deal of error built into these numbers.

If you want to complain about manipulated rates, that is an entirely different idea that I won't address. But the statistics of your 4 "bad" pulls do not make you entirely unique.

I'm not saying I'm "unique" in my experience, only that for the purposes of odds my chances are distinct to me. What someone else does doesn't change the odds as they relate to each of my pulls... any dependency on "community" action cancels itself out and becomes irrelevant.

As for the rest, totally agree with you on the isolated nature of the odds in each pull. However, statistically you can expect to regressto the mean, and the mean should be a 50/50 split between B and C shards. Yes, 4 pulls is a small dataset, but even at 4 I would expect some regression given the apparently equal odds of B and C.

Anyway, I think it's all bull$&%# and just another example of kabaam fing certain groups of players over with another crappy event that doesn't provide the anticipated return.

Rt