Also, GW, you can't associate the 1/6 chance with the probability of rolling the same thing multiple times. Like I said, they are 2 different entities... better yet, 2 separate and independent math problems.
This is where I disagree, and why I stay away from probability when it comes to RNG. It can land any of six ways. It's not affected by the probability of doubles. We could go into complex Mathematical calculations ad nauseum, but the reality is, it can happen. It's not the first time I've had the same conversation, and I steer clear of probability altogether with RNG. It's possible, 1/6 each time.
Granted, I'm not totally rejecting probability, and I understand how it works, it may be increasingly rare the more multiples you roll, but it's possible. It's just all how they land.
That calculation is correct IF you have not rolled the AGs at all and plan to open them all at once.
If you’re rolling dice by dice, the moment you roll your first dice and it rolls a 6, the probability of the next 3 rolls being 3 6s collectively drops to 1/6^3, while the probability of a 6 of the next independent roll remains at 1/6.
What? No... time has no bearing on probability.
If you roll a 6... wait a month... roll another 6... wait a year... roll another 6... wait ten years and roll another 6... it all still has the same probability.
For AGs, it's the same thing. It doesn't matter if you opened four at the same time or four over the course of a year. They are all still the same crystal with the same drop rates.
I agree. Time has no bearing on probability. But based on the calculations you showed, it does (not time, rather the number of occurrences that are happening at once). Because if you were to roll 4 dices at one time (meaning you throw all 4 at once), the probability of all 4 dices landing on a 6 is 1/6^4.
However, if you were to roll 4 dices one by one, if your first die were to land on a 6, the probability of the next die landing on the 6 is still 1/6, not 1/6^2, because the first outcome has already been determined.
Which is why if you were to roll a Cosmic AG for your first AG, the next one AG you open, still has a 1/6 chance to be a Cosmic, not 1/6^2. I believe this is where you have gotten your probability calculations mixed up.
The only time when your calculations are correct, is when you have 4 unopened AGs, and open all 4 at one time and get 4 Cosmic AGs.
That calculation is correct IF you have not rolled the AGs at all and plan to open them all at once.
If you’re rolling dice by dice, the moment you roll your first dice and it rolls a 6, the probability of the next 3 rolls being 3 6s collectively drops to 1/6^3, while the probability of a 6 of the next independent roll remains at 1/6.
What? No... time has no bearing on probability.
If you roll a 6... wait a month... roll another 6... wait a year... roll another 6... wait ten years and roll another 6... it all still has the same probability.
For AGs, it's the same thing. It doesn't matter if you opened four at the same time or four over the course of a year. They are all still the same crystal with the same drop rates.
I agree. Time has no bearing on probability. But based on the calculations you showed, it does (not time, rather the number of occurrences that are happening at once). Because if you were to roll 4 dices at one time (meaning you throw all 4 at once), the probability of all 4 dices landing on a 6 is 1/6^4.
However, if you were to roll 4 dices one by one, if your first die were to land on a 6, the probability of the next die landing on the 6 is still 1/6, not 1/6^2, because the first outcome has already been determined.
Which is why if you were to roll a Cosmic AG for your first AG, the next one AG you open, still has a 1/6 chance to be a Cosmic, not 1/6^2. I believe this is where you have gotten your probability calculations mixed up.
The only time when your calculations are correct, is when you have 4 unopened AGs, and open all 4 at one time and get 4 Cosmic AGs.
No, I'm not saying that and no that's not the same thing.
Each roll or pop is independent. You aren't rolling or popping them all at once like throwing 4 dice at the same time. Even if you pop 4, it's the same as rolling 4 over the course of a year due to the mechanics of the crystals.
Consecutively rolling the same thing is the rub.
Ok, look... This is for GW too.
I downloaded a dice roller game. I rolled a 6 sided die 10 times.
Each time I rolled, there was a 1/6 chance to roll a 6... This is why I rolled it 4 out of the 10 times.
But, for me to roll a 6 back to back, there was a 1/36 chance. This isn't exactly rare or uncommon. Now, for me to roll another 6 after my 2 previous 6s there would be a 1/216 and a 1/1296 chance to do it a fourth time.
This only applies to consecutive rolls. I think this is where the disconnect is.
With online gambling sites, I do know that their process must be completely transparent, tested, and approved by a governing commission(at the state level as far as Im aware) and documentation of the results available to the public. Does MMOs such as MCoC adhere to something similar or regulated by a commission of some sort? I ask because I have no clue
Actually, as far as I'm aware there is no such requirement. Casino slot machines have that requirement in states that allow such as part of their regulations, but I don't believe online gaming sites are covered by those regulations. It is possible I've overlooked a requirements somewhere.
Even there, there is always a question of trust. The public doesn't know, and generally wouldn't understand, any of the tests that are performed on those systems. And those requirements have been penetrated by fraudsters, usually by infiltrating the organizations that certify the systems' integrity.
In any event, it would be impossible for any online game like MCOC to pass those tests. Those tests do not test individual components in isolation, because that would be worthless. If any part of a slot machine is compromised, it doesn't matter if the pRNG is proper and the reward tables are accurate, if the results can still be manipulated outside of those. So slot machines are certified as a whole integral system. That would be impossible to do with any online game that uses cloud services from a vendor like Google, because the game operator would not have the ability to expose those systems to an audit (since they don't own them). Also, since the game is constantly updated, and any update can alter the game servers, the audit would be worthless even if it could be done unless it was done on every patch and update to the game servers. Slot machines are not allowed to be "patched" or updated once deployed, except under very strict limitations.
Basically, if you don't trust the game operator, there's no way to verify anything they do in any practical way. In fact, most people who haven't worked in this field tend to be surprised to learn that game *operators* don't generally trust game *developers* and put a Chinese Wall between them. Developers are not allowed to touch live systems, and can generally only update or otherwise affect them by creating update packages that are applied to the game by operational staff. This inability to touch live servers can explain a lot of the oddities surrounding how game systems are supported in online games.
But, for me to roll a 6 back to back, there was a 1/36 chance. This isn't exactly rare or uncommon. Now, for me to roll another 6 after my 2 previous 6s there would be a 1/216 and a 1/1296 chance to do it a fourth time.
Prior to rolling, there was a one in 36 chance of rolling two 6s in a row, and a one in 216 chance of rolling three 6s in a row with your first three rolls. However, once you rolled two 6s in a row, the odds of the next roll being a 6, after you see two 6s in a row is one in six.
I went 4 straight on cosmic at one point (still have 2 of them). Have seen lots of guys get clumps of one class. I would say something is fishy for sure. Just way too many guys that are sitting on multiple of a class they can’t use.
It's funny how people just go through and Flag every opinion they don't agree with. You would think after all this time, they would realize that's not going to do anything. Hey, perhaps there's a connection to the number of Flags you hit and the pulls you get! Lmao.
It's funny how people just go through and Flag every opinion they don't agree with. You would think after all this time, they would realize that's not going to do anything. Hey, perhaps there's a connection to the number of Flags you hit and the pulls you get! Lmao.
It's funny how people just go through and Flag every opinion they don't agree with. You would think after all this time, they would realize that's not going to do anything. Hey, perhaps there's a connection to the number of Flags you hit and the pulls you get! Lmao.
Agree. Flagging for spite is ridiculous.
Smh.
I'm used to it by now, clearly. LOL. I just don't get the persistence of it. It's a Feature for the Mods to review comments that break the rules and if they don't, nothing happens. Other than that, it's just a number on a Profile. It's always the same, habitual people that do it. Doesn't affect anything, really.
We need to accept that we try to boil RNG down to a roll of a 6 sided die because there are 6 classes in the game and we've all played enough dice rolling games to understand the odds. It's a concept to help people understand and to build a path to getting them to your point of view.
Once you've got people to understand the concept of statistics and odds, and I think everyone gets this, it's time to think about the real world application of RNG and how it applies to what we see in game.
I've been trying to be pretty rigorous over the last few months to only open PHC shard crystals in packs of 5 and then take a screen shot of the champs. Looking back, I'm surprised at how many pools of 5 contain doubles of certain 2* champs. There are even, albeit rare, openings where I pulled three of the same 2* champ.
The only way I've been able to rationalize this in my head is that there's a die with a lot of sides on it and I have an equal chance of any one of those sides popping up on top. However, what's on each of those sides of the huge die isn't random.
For talking purposes, let's say the die has a thousand sides on it.
Using a shard PHC drop rate, this would mean that 30 of the sides have a 4* champ on them, 200 sides have a 3* champ on them and 770 sides have a 2* champ on them. Just to make the math easier, let's say there are 35 2* champs available in the PHC shard crystal. That means each obtainable 2* champ is on 22 different sides of the die.
When I think about it in those terms, it makes a lot more sense that I can somehow pull doubles of a 2* champ in a 5 crystal opening. It also helps to make sense of the times I've pulled doubles of two 2* champs in a pack of 5.
I'm completely just blowing stuff out of my butt here and maybe someone sees where I'm going to jump next...
The servers know your line ups. The know how many unawakened 5*s you have of each class. What if the servers, seeing how many unawakened champs are on your roster, picks a distribution of of the classes on your thousand sided die that matches the percentages of unawakened 5* champs on your roster? The results would show a propensity toward giving you a certain class type, even if you don't care about that type of champ or there aren't any champs worth spending a stone on in your roster.
Thinking about rolls in this way, still maintains the concept of RNG, but could go a long way to explain what people feel they witness in practice.
This may be complete baloney, but I don't think I'm wrong in scaling up this thought experiment. The model of a 6 sided die is too simplistic to explain what's going on in the RNG and that's why it doesn't satisfy people. It's a simple example to explain a complex dynamic. Simple examples aren't bad because they get everyone to a common level of understanding. It's time to start pulling on some different ideas to mix how RNG can still exist but still allow the screwed up pulls we see in game.
I'm saying this knowing full well that people will say "Kabam said that this isn't how it works".
I understand.
I believed Kabam when they said that they weren't going to touch certain champs, until they touched them, or that a certain character wasn't designed to have a certain mechanic, until it made them money. They are a business. They need to maintain a drive to acquire champs and items. They don't have to be fair. They don't have to be logical. The don't have to be consistent. As long as the player base expands and revenue increases, they are ok.
I.am convinced that the rng is broken! We have a good number of issues with glitchy behavior. We have had layer upon layer of game added on top of one another, champs added and crystals altered...through all the many changes since the beginning i think it is very possible they broke they damaged it and made it glitchy! I swear if i see one more 2 star yellowjacket or ronin!
Comments
However, if you were to roll 4 dices one by one, if your first die were to land on a 6, the probability of the next die landing on the 6 is still 1/6, not 1/6^2, because the first outcome has already been determined.
Which is why if you were to roll a Cosmic AG for your first AG, the next one AG you open, still has a 1/6 chance to be a Cosmic, not 1/6^2. I believe this is where you have gotten your probability calculations mixed up.
The only time when your calculations are correct, is when you have 4 unopened AGs, and open all 4 at one time and get 4 Cosmic AGs.
Each roll or pop is independent. You aren't rolling or popping them all at once like throwing 4 dice at the same time. Even if you pop 4, it's the same as rolling 4 over the course of a year due to the mechanics of the crystals.
Consecutively rolling the same thing is the rub.
Ok, look... This is for GW too.
I downloaded a dice roller game. I rolled a 6 sided die 10 times.
Each time I rolled, there was a 1/6 chance to roll a 6... This is why I rolled it 4 out of the 10 times.
But, for me to roll a 6 back to back, there was a 1/36 chance. This isn't exactly rare or uncommon. Now, for me to roll another 6 after my 2 previous 6s there would be a 1/216 and a 1/1296 chance to do it a fourth time.
This only applies to consecutive rolls. I think this is where the disconnect is.
Even there, there is always a question of trust. The public doesn't know, and generally wouldn't understand, any of the tests that are performed on those systems. And those requirements have been penetrated by fraudsters, usually by infiltrating the organizations that certify the systems' integrity.
In any event, it would be impossible for any online game like MCOC to pass those tests. Those tests do not test individual components in isolation, because that would be worthless. If any part of a slot machine is compromised, it doesn't matter if the pRNG is proper and the reward tables are accurate, if the results can still be manipulated outside of those. So slot machines are certified as a whole integral system. That would be impossible to do with any online game that uses cloud services from a vendor like Google, because the game operator would not have the ability to expose those systems to an audit (since they don't own them). Also, since the game is constantly updated, and any update can alter the game servers, the audit would be worthless even if it could be done unless it was done on every patch and update to the game servers. Slot machines are not allowed to be "patched" or updated once deployed, except under very strict limitations.
Basically, if you don't trust the game operator, there's no way to verify anything they do in any practical way. In fact, most people who haven't worked in this field tend to be surprised to learn that game *operators* don't generally trust game *developers* and put a Chinese Wall between them. Developers are not allowed to touch live systems, and can generally only update or otherwise affect them by creating update packages that are applied to the game by operational staff. This inability to touch live servers can explain a lot of the oddities surrounding how game systems are supported in online games.
Smh.
Once you've got people to understand the concept of statistics and odds, and I think everyone gets this, it's time to think about the real world application of RNG and how it applies to what we see in game.
I've been trying to be pretty rigorous over the last few months to only open PHC shard crystals in packs of 5 and then take a screen shot of the champs. Looking back, I'm surprised at how many pools of 5 contain doubles of certain 2* champs. There are even, albeit rare, openings where I pulled three of the same 2* champ.
The only way I've been able to rationalize this in my head is that there's a die with a lot of sides on it and I have an equal chance of any one of those sides popping up on top. However, what's on each of those sides of the huge die isn't random.
For talking purposes, let's say the die has a thousand sides on it.
Using a shard PHC drop rate, this would mean that 30 of the sides have a 4* champ on them, 200 sides have a 3* champ on them and 770 sides have a 2* champ on them. Just to make the math easier, let's say there are 35 2* champs available in the PHC shard crystal. That means each obtainable 2* champ is on 22 different sides of the die.
When I think about it in those terms, it makes a lot more sense that I can somehow pull doubles of a 2* champ in a 5 crystal opening. It also helps to make sense of the times I've pulled doubles of two 2* champs in a pack of 5.
I'm completely just blowing stuff out of my butt here and maybe someone sees where I'm going to jump next...
The servers know your line ups. The know how many unawakened 5*s you have of each class. What if the servers, seeing how many unawakened champs are on your roster, picks a distribution of of the classes on your thousand sided die that matches the percentages of unawakened 5* champs on your roster? The results would show a propensity toward giving you a certain class type, even if you don't care about that type of champ or there aren't any champs worth spending a stone on in your roster.
Thinking about rolls in this way, still maintains the concept of RNG, but could go a long way to explain what people feel they witness in practice.
This may be complete baloney, but I don't think I'm wrong in scaling up this thought experiment. The model of a 6 sided die is too simplistic to explain what's going on in the RNG and that's why it doesn't satisfy people. It's a simple example to explain a complex dynamic. Simple examples aren't bad because they get everyone to a common level of understanding. It's time to start pulling on some different ideas to mix how RNG can still exist but still allow the screwed up pulls we see in game.
I'm saying this knowing full well that people will say "Kabam said that this isn't how it works".
I understand.
I believed Kabam when they said that they weren't going to touch certain champs, until they touched them, or that a certain character wasn't designed to have a certain mechanic, until it made them money. They are a business. They need to maintain a drive to acquire champs and items. They don't have to be fair. They don't have to be logical. The don't have to be consistent. As long as the player base expands and revenue increases, they are ok.
We will never understand or be able to calculate it.
It’s like a derivative in stock market terms. Nobody’s knows what it actually means or does.