AG RNG and the math isn't adding up.

First, I'm totally aware drop percentages are independent of each other; i.e. - you have a 16.7% chance of rolling a certain class. Rolls aren't cumulative and every single time it's 1 in 6.

I'm not talking drop percentages. I'm talking about probabilty of rolling the same number multiple times.

As it stands, I've rolled 5* Cosmic 4 times in a row. If I'm doing my math correctly, that's a .00077% chance (1/6^4).

This isn't adding up.

Comments

Jaded

I’ve gotten 4 cosmic, 2 science, 2 tech, 1 mystic.

Only need skill and mutant. But can’t get them. So the rest sit and collect dust.

Edit:it doesn’t add up

unknown

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DNA3000

First, I'm totally aware drop percentages are independent of each other; i.e. - you have a 16.7% chance of rolling a certain class. Rolls aren't cumulative and every single time it's 1 in 6.

I'm not talking drop percentages. I'm talking about probabilty of rolling the same number multiple times.

As it stands, I've rolled 5* Cosmic 4 times in a row. If I'm doing my math correctly, that's a .00077% chance (1/6^4).

This isn't adding up.

It is unusual, but a statistical analyst would say you have to be cautious about what you're really calculating. First of all, you're calculating the odds of pulling four cosmics in a row *after* pulling four cosmics in a row. But your rolls aren't noteworthy to you because they are cosmics, but because they are all identical - in other words you'd still be here talking about it if they were all skill or all tech. The odds of pulling four identical classes in a row is not one in 6^4, but rather one in 6^3. That's one in 216 instead of one in 1296.

One in 216 is still rare, but the second question to ask not just what are the odds of one particular person pulling four in a row, but rather what the odds of it happening at all. After all, the odds of winning the lottery are one in millions, but someone eventually wins. If *they* do the calculations after actually winning, it will always seem incredible after the fact. But in fact, the person who actually already won has a 100% chance of winning - because it already happened. Out of all the players, what are the odds of having a "winner" like yourself? If the odds are one in 1296, there should be dozens to hundreds of them. If the odds are one in 216, there ought to be hundreds or thousands of them. The difference is significant in that in a random pool of a couple dozen players, it is possible none of them are active forum participants. But in a random pool of thousands of players, the odds are at least a few are forum participants. And if any of those pull this sequence, they are much more likely to report it.

This is actually so common of a problem in statistics it plagues even peer reviewed scientific articles, so I'm not surprised it happens to non-scientists when they try to analyze random events in games.

Now, I've sometimes seen hints of a correlation glitch in some random generated results, but nothing that I could prove. But those were literal back to back events. Crystal openings separated by a wide amount of time can't be correlated by any bug, and if the game was deliberately attempting to generate repeats I think it would be a far more common occurrence. Most players don't report this happening, and I don't see the benefit to a game skewing the dice, but only a little bit.

SummonerNR

@Hamin , 2 corrections... First, your fraction is not a percent, you'd have to move the decimal 2 places over, so 0.077%. Secondly, assuming the question is how likely that ANY class would come up 4 times in a row, you have to multiply a 6 back in, so that the odds would be “how likely that I would get 4 of the same class in a row”, not just specifically that they had to be Cosmic.

So 0.463% chance of getting 4 of the same Class with your 4 openings. Still a long shot, hope you at least got a good Dup out of one of them.

Hamin

Thanks for the clarification, guys. I felt like my math was wrong.

Rap

I opened 3 2 star hulks today...what are the odds of that?

Rap

Then a symbiote supreme 3 out of 4 crystals...for me that doesn't add up! What about this rng?

Rap

Don't even need to put pencil to paper to figure out they should be astronomical!

Hamin

The 2* Hulk isn't that low.

liquidkarma

i always assumed the algorithm was more likely to give you more of what you had the most of, to "help" you "save up," did I make that up? my anecdotal evidence supports it at least. I have an overflow of t4 tech catalysts because I have never used one and i started off with slightly more of that then other classes. I have the least amount of t4 science and always have, but have never used any of that either. So for me i seem to be most likely to get a tech and least likely to get a science, because my inventory has always been highest and lowest for those respectfully.
are there no algorithms at all? is it always just 1 in 6?

LeNoirFaineant

i always assumed the algorithm was more likely to give you more of what you had the most of, to "help" you "save," did I make that up?

Yes

liquidkarma

i guess i probably made it up then.
has anyone ever seen the movie Pi? I always feel like the guy in that movie trying to spot patterns in the stock exchange.
i swear i am on to something *cries laughing*

unknown

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GroundedWisdom

Anytime it comes to independent RNG occurrences, I don't deviate from the Drop Rate, simply because each pull doesn't factor in the previous one. We can calculate the probability of pulling 4 Cosmics in a row, but pull 2 doesn't know we pulled a Cosmic in pull 1, etc. Each one generates a 17% (rounded) chance, and we have a 17% chance at Cosmic every roll.

DrZola

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

Dr. Zola

Mr_M

The thing is couldn't it be at least plausible that with the quantity of anecdotal evidence that there is an unknown glitch in the system.

GroundedWisdom

Is it plausible? Not with anecdotal evidence, that's thing about anecdotal. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? No. What you would have to see is a much, much larger cross-section only pulling Cosmic, across multiple samples (people). It's just separate RNG occurrences. They can be, and sometimes are, the same thing over and over.

SDP

That’s essentially the same odds as pulling the 5* featured champ from a FGMC, and people do it all the time.

DNA3000

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

Dr. Zola

In theory, particles obey quantum mechanics. In practice, only the creator of the universe actually knows. And a lot of people on the internet don't believe in quantum mechanics and have their own theories that they believe more.

GroundedWisdom

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

Dr. Zola
In theory, particles obey quantum mechanics. In practice, only the creator of the universe actually knows. And a lot of people on the internet don't believe in quantum mechanics and have their own theories that they believe more.

I've actually read some interesting ideas that combine both Science and Beliefs. Rather than being separate lines of thinking, it correlates the two together. Science describes the way that The Creator manifests, basically. Very interesting.

DNA3000

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

Dr. Zola
In theory, particles obey quantum mechanics. In practice, only the creator of the universe actually knows. And a lot of people on the internet don't believe in quantum mechanics and have their own theories that they believe more.
I've actually read some interesting ideas that combine both Science and Beliefs. Rather than being separate lines of thinking, it correlates the two together. Science describes the way that The Creator manifests, basically. Very interesting.

I take it back.

Species11

Cosmic AG here too. 5* champs already awakened Medusa, and the rest are trash: groot, Kampala, Venompool.

Every other class have decent to great champs ready to be awakened.

It’s almost like the algorithm is weighted based on your resources to ‘help’ you progress.

Hen

First, I'm totally aware drop percentages are independent of each other; i.e. - you have a 16.7% chance of rolling a certain class. Rolls aren't cumulative and every single time it's 1 in 6.

I'm not talking drop percentages. I'm talking about probabilty of rolling the same number multiple times.

As it stands, I've rolled 5* Cosmic 4 times in a row. If I'm doing my math correctly, that's a .00077% chance (1/6^4).

This isn't adding up.

I feel your pain, just opened my 4th mutant gem, it’s total BS!
There is a YouTube video, Proff Hoff I think, where they’ve done a lot of research that shows Kabam often reward you with the same class because surprise surprise it encourages you to spend more money to get the one you want

GroundedWisdom

That logic makes very little sense, given the availability of Gems.

DrZola

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

Dr. Zola
In theory, particles obey quantum mechanics. In practice, only the creator of the universe actually knows. And a lot of people on the internet don't believe in quantum mechanics and have their own theories that they believe more.

It was a simple point demonstrating how randomness usually works. Not sure I would put phone games and company spokesmen on the same footing as quantum theory, Nobel laureates and recognized quantitative/scientific geniuses, but you do you.

Dr. Zola

liquidkarma

i am currently re-reading the TOS, which also mentions trade secrets and consumer behavior, as well as "underlying ideas or algorithms" coming into play within the Service. isn't there room to interpret any of that to support that it is at least *possible* that it's not as simple as 1 in 6 chance for any one class or 1 in (x) chance for any one champion, where x is the total number of champions available at whichever applicable star rating in question?

i say that because I know i have personally seen in my alliance many times the same champion being pulled multiple times in a brief span. or my aforementioned theory about the algorithms attempting to help you save up any one resource. once i finally had a couple t1 alphas saved up I started getting t1alpha fragments much more often than i had previously in my 4 hour free crystals.

based on my personal stats, i seem more likely to receive units from an arena crystal if i have just spent some units, more likely to receive 10,000 gold from an arena crystal if i have just ranked someone up, and more likely to duplicate a 3star champ from a PHC if i am very close to enough shards for a 4star hero.

i also know a bit about game theory, decent amount about carl jung's coincidence theory, and am well familiar with cognitive biases particularly Confirmation bias; but knowing all that I still am left wondering about the rng. i'm not angry or holding a pitchfork, i know enough about life to manage my expectations to be realistic, i just enjoy thinking/talking about this kind of stuff. any time i see the phrase "trade secrets" or a company mention "consumer behavior" my brain gets to thinking, thats all.

Ingi_Freyr1975

Pulled my fifth 5* tech AG today,......gosh

GroundedWisdom

No, that theory extends all the way back to an old Patent they applied for that isn't active. In short, the RNG doesn't take into account anything in your Roster. You open the Crystal, it accesses the pool, and it generates an outcome instantaneously. It doesn't stop to analyze your Roster or Inventory.

DrZola

i am currently re-reading the TOS, which also mentions trade secrets and consumer behavior, as well as "underlying ideas or algorithms" coming into play within the Service. isn't there room to interpret any of that to support that it is at least *possible* that it's not as simple as 1 in 6 chance for any one class or 1 in (x) chance for any one champion, where x is the total number of champions available at whichever applicable star rating in question?

i say that because I know i have personally seen in my alliance many times the same champion being pulled multiple times in a brief span. or my aforementioned theory about the algorithms attempting to help you save up any one resource. once i finally had a couple t1 alphas saved up I started getting t1alpha fragments much more often than i had previously in my 4 hour free crystals.

based on my personal stats, i seem more likely to receive units from an arena crystal if i have just spent some units, more likely to receive 10,000 gold from an arena crystal if i have just ranked someone up, and more likely to duplicate a 3star champ from a PHC if i am very close to enough shards for a 4star hero.

i also know a bit about game theory, decent amount about carl jung's coincidence theory, and am well familiar with cognitive biases particularly Confirmation bias; but knowing all that I still am left wondering about the rng. i'm not angry or holding a pitchfork, i know enough about life to manage my expectations to be realistic, i just enjoy thinking/talking about this kind of stuff. any time i see the phrase "trade secrets" or a company mention "consumer behavior" my brain gets to thinking, thats all.

I believe they have pointed out on the forums that they don’t do business this way. Any reference to old patents that suggest algorithms are designed to influence spending is usually shot down by forums mods, so I’m thinking there’s really no rational basis for concluding they operate the pRNG like that.

Dr. Zola

liquidkarma

@GroundedWisdom have you ever read Julian Jayne's "The origin of consciousness in the breakdown of the bicameral mind"? it's a fascinating albeit controversial book exploring how ancient humans may have interpreted the "voice in their heads" in a much different way than we do in modern times.
there is another great book by daniel c. dennett called "breaking the spell," a parallel theory exploring "religion as a natural phenomenon." i recommend both if you have not.