Summoners, due to a technical issue, this week's series of Alliance Quests will be cancelled at 4pm PT. There will not be any Rewards for this series. The next series of Alliance Quests will start on April 18 at 12pm PT. We will be assessing the impact on Alliances and compensating accordingly, as well as returning Alliance Tickets.

AG RNG and the math isn't adding up.

HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
First, I'm totally aware drop percentages are independent of each other; i.e. - you have a 16.7% chance of rolling a certain class. Rolls aren't cumulative and every single time it's 1 in 6.

I'm not talking drop percentages. I'm talking about probabilty of rolling the same number multiple times.

As it stands, I've rolled 5* Cosmic 4 times in a row. If I'm doing my math correctly, that's a .00077% chance (1/6^4).

This isn't adding up.
«1345

Comments

  • @Hamin , 2 corrections... First, your fraction is not a percent, you'd have to move the decimal 2 places over, so 0.077%. Secondly, assuming the question is how likely that ANY class would come up 4 times in a row, you have to multiply a 6 back in, so that the odds would be “how likely that I would get 4 of the same class in a row”, not just specifically that they had to be Cosmic.

    So 0.463% chance of getting 4 of the same Class with your 4 openings. Still a long shot, hope you at least got a good Dup out of one of them.
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    Thanks for the clarification, guys. I felt like my math was wrong.
  • RapRap Posts: 2,933 ★★★★
    I opened 3 2 star hulks today...what are the odds of that?
  • RapRap Posts: 2,933 ★★★★
    Then a symbiote supreme 3 out of 4 crystals...for me that doesn't add up! What about this rng?
  • RapRap Posts: 2,933 ★★★★
    Don't even need to put pencil to paper to figure out they should be astronomical!
  • HaminHamin Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
    The 2* Hulk isn't that low.
  • liquidkarmaliquidkarma Posts: 80
    edited March 2019
    i always assumed the algorithm was more likely to give you more of what you had the most of, to "help" you "save up," did I make that up? my anecdotal evidence supports it at least. I have an overflow of t4 tech catalysts because I have never used one and i started off with slightly more of that then other classes. I have the least amount of t4 science and always have, but have never used any of that either. So for me i seem to be most likely to get a tech and least likely to get a science, because my inventory has always been highest and lowest for those respectfully.
    are there no algorithms at all? is it always just 1 in 6?
  • LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Posts: 6,716 ★★★★★

    i always assumed the algorithm was more likely to give you more of what you had the most of, to "help" you "save," did I make that up?

    Yes

  • liquidkarmaliquidkarma Posts: 80
    i guess i probably made it up then.
    has anyone ever seen the movie Pi? I always feel like the guy in that movie trying to spot patterns in the stock exchange.
    i swear i am on to something *cries laughing*
  • ADDIS0NADDIS0N Posts: 900 ★★★★
    edited March 2019
    Literally half of my alliance got a gem they already have and/or can't use... haven't heard from the other half.

    The only gem I couldn't use is cosmic... every 5* cosmic champ I have is already duped (except Venompool) AND I already have one in inventory.

    ANY OTHER CLASS would've worked for me.

    Nope.

    Here's another cosmic for your trouble.

    :|
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,869 ★★★★★
    edited March 2019
    Anytime it comes to independent RNG occurrences, I don't deviate from the Drop Rate, simply because each pull doesn't factor in the previous one. We can calculate the probability of pulling 4 Cosmics in a row, but pull 2 doesn't know we pulled a Cosmic in pull 1, etc. Each one generates a 17% (rounded) chance, and we have a 17% chance at Cosmic every roll.
  • Mr_MMr_M Posts: 35
    The thing is couldn't it be at least plausible that with the quantity of anecdotal evidence that there is an unknown glitch in the system.
  • SDPSDP Posts: 1,615 ★★★★
    That’s essentially the same odds as pulling the 5* featured champ from a FGMC, and people do it all the time.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 12,024 Guardian
    DrZola said:

    https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

    This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

    Dr. Zola

    In theory, particles obey quantum mechanics. In practice, only the creator of the universe actually knows. And a lot of people on the internet don't believe in quantum mechanics and have their own theories that they believe more.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,869 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    DrZola said:

    https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

    This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

    Dr. Zola

    In theory, particles obey quantum mechanics. In practice, only the creator of the universe actually knows. And a lot of people on the internet don't believe in quantum mechanics and have their own theories that they believe more.
    I've actually read some interesting ideas that combine both Science and Beliefs. Rather than being separate lines of thinking, it correlates the two together. Science describes the way that The Creator manifests, basically. Very interesting.
  • Species11Species11 Posts: 23
    Cosmic AG here too. 5* champs already awakened Medusa, and the rest are trash: groot, Kampala, Venompool.

    Every other class have decent to great champs ready to be awakened.

    It’s almost like the algorithm is weighted based on your resources to ‘help’ you progress.
  • HenHen Posts: 13
    Hamin said:

    First, I'm totally aware drop percentages are independent of each other; i.e. - you have a 16.7% chance of rolling a certain class. Rolls aren't cumulative and every single time it's 1 in 6.

    I'm not talking drop percentages. I'm talking about probabilty of rolling the same number multiple times.

    As it stands, I've rolled 5* Cosmic 4 times in a row. If I'm doing my math correctly, that's a .00077% chance (1/6^4).

    This isn't adding up.

    I feel your pain, just opened my 4th mutant gem, it’s total BS!
    There is a YouTube video, Proff Hoff I think, where they’ve done a lot of research that shows Kabam often reward you with the same class because surprise surprise it encourages you to spend more money to get the one you want :(
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,869 ★★★★★
    That logic makes very little sense, given the availability of Gems.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 4,503 ★★★★★
    edited March 2019
    DNA3000 said:

    DrZola said:

    https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

    This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”

    Dr. Zola

    In theory, particles obey quantum mechanics. In practice, only the creator of the universe actually knows. And a lot of people on the internet don't believe in quantum mechanics and have their own theories that they believe more.
    It was a simple point demonstrating how randomness usually works. Not sure I would put phone games and company spokesmen on the same footing as quantum theory, Nobel laureates and recognized quantitative/scientific geniuses, but you do you.

    Dr. Zola
  • liquidkarmaliquidkarma Posts: 80
    i am currently re-reading the TOS, which also mentions trade secrets and consumer behavior, as well as "underlying ideas or algorithms" coming into play within the Service. isn't there room to interpret any of that to support that it is at least *possible* that it's not as simple as 1 in 6 chance for any one class or 1 in (x) chance for any one champion, where x is the total number of champions available at whichever applicable star rating in question?

    i say that because I know i have personally seen in my alliance many times the same champion being pulled multiple times in a brief span. or my aforementioned theory about the algorithms attempting to help you save up any one resource. once i finally had a couple t1 alphas saved up I started getting t1alpha fragments much more often than i had previously in my 4 hour free crystals.

    based on my personal stats, i seem more likely to receive units from an arena crystal if i have just spent some units, more likely to receive 10,000 gold from an arena crystal if i have just ranked someone up, and more likely to duplicate a 3star champ from a PHC if i am very close to enough shards for a 4star hero.

    i also know a bit about game theory, decent amount about carl jung's coincidence theory, and am well familiar with cognitive biases particularly Confirmation bias; but knowing all that I still am left wondering about the rng. i'm not angry or holding a pitchfork, i know enough about life to manage my expectations to be realistic, i just enjoy thinking/talking about this kind of stuff. any time i see the phrase "trade secrets" or a company mention "consumer behavior" my brain gets to thinking, thats all.
  • Ingi_Freyr1975Ingi_Freyr1975 Posts: 158
    Pulled my fifth 5* tech AG today,......gosh :/
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,869 ★★★★★
    No, that theory extends all the way back to an old Patent they applied for that isn't active. In short, the RNG doesn't take into account anything in your Roster. You open the Crystal, it accesses the pool, and it generates an outcome instantaneously. It doesn't stop to analyze your Roster or Inventory.
  • DrZolaDrZola Posts: 4,503 ★★★★★

    i am currently re-reading the TOS, which also mentions trade secrets and consumer behavior, as well as "underlying ideas or algorithms" coming into play within the Service. isn't there room to interpret any of that to support that it is at least *possible* that it's not as simple as 1 in 6 chance for any one class or 1 in (x) chance for any one champion, where x is the total number of champions available at whichever applicable star rating in question?

    i say that because I know i have personally seen in my alliance many times the same champion being pulled multiple times in a brief span. or my aforementioned theory about the algorithms attempting to help you save up any one resource. once i finally had a couple t1 alphas saved up I started getting t1alpha fragments much more often than i had previously in my 4 hour free crystals.

    based on my personal stats, i seem more likely to receive units from an arena crystal if i have just spent some units, more likely to receive 10,000 gold from an arena crystal if i have just ranked someone up, and more likely to duplicate a 3star champ from a PHC if i am very close to enough shards for a 4star hero.

    i also know a bit about game theory, decent amount about carl jung's coincidence theory, and am well familiar with cognitive biases particularly Confirmation bias; but knowing all that I still am left wondering about the rng. i'm not angry or holding a pitchfork, i know enough about life to manage my expectations to be realistic, i just enjoy thinking/talking about this kind of stuff. any time i see the phrase "trade secrets" or a company mention "consumer behavior" my brain gets to thinking, thats all.

    I believe they have pointed out on the forums that they don’t do business this way. Any reference to old patents that suggest algorithms are designed to influence spending is usually shot down by forums mods, so I’m thinking there’s really no rational basis for concluding they operate the pRNG like that.

    Dr. Zola
  • liquidkarmaliquidkarma Posts: 80
    @GroundedWisdom have you ever read Julian Jayne's "The origin of consciousness in the breakdown of the bicameral mind"? it's a fascinating albeit controversial book exploring how ancient humans may have interpreted the "voice in their heads" in a much different way than we do in modern times.
    there is another great book by daniel c. dennett called "breaking the spell," a parallel theory exploring "religion as a natural phenomenon." i recommend both if you have not.
Sign In or Register to comment.