Statistically speaking, is it worth going for the Unstable Rifts?

FreeToPlay_21

The rewards for the unstable ones look pretty sweet but I'm not sure if I wanna go for it. What are the odds that I'll get trashed? I'm going to focus on T3 rifts since T4 seems outta my league. What are you all going to do?

MadTitan

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING, IS IT WORTH GOING FOR THE UNSTABLE RIFTS?

-well, no...I guess you know the answer already when you put it that way, don't you?

Stable rifts have quite good chances to get something solid. Unstable are classic high risk-high reward system, but we all know how it works with Kabam... 10% chance for something great is not quite the same as "10"% chance for trash in this game...

FreeToPlay_21

MadTitan said:

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING, IS IT WORTH GOING FOR THE UNSTABLE RIFTS?

-well, no...I guess you know the answer already when you put it that way, don't you?

Stable rifts have quite good chances to get something solid. Unstable are classic high risk-high reward system, but we all know how it works with Kabam... 10% chance for something great is not quite the same as "10"% chance for trash in this game...

Well, I guess I do know but I kinda need the motivation to go for the unstable ones, I'm certainly not getting that now lol

Yeo786

Statistically speaking, no.

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Kobster84

X_Factor_Agent said:

I say yes, depending on where you are in the game
"Statistically" you have a 35% chance of getting what you want in either rift, and clearly the unstable rift has better rewards... So. 😕

Yes this is right just outside of the 35% in the stable rifts has better rewards while in unstable the 35% has better rewards

yoyoshark

I think that depends a lot on what you are excited about in the rewards for each. I made a quick table for myself as to the value of each reward for me, and broke it down by category. And for me I think it makes more sense to go for the Stable ones:



That being said, I'm not sure I'll be able to attempt the unstable rift once or twice just for fun

LoPresti

Go hard or go home, unstable for life.

Lvernon15

I’m going unstable, 35% chance to be happy, if we can get 10 I should get 3/4 good rifts, though rng never seems to work like that and I’ll just get the sig stone

Panchulon21

Do it! It’s just a game, gamble away your rift shards!

I am lol

Lormif

yoyoshark said:

I think that depends a lot on what you are excited about in the rewards for each. I made a quick table for myself as to the value of each reward for me, and broke it down by category. And for me I think it makes more sense to go for the Stable ones:



That being said, I'm not sure I'll be able to attempt the unstable rift once or twice just for fun

You value a 5* crystal more than a t2a?

yoyoshark

You value a 5* crystal more than a t2a?

At this point of my progression I do, because I've only got a few 5* that are worth ranking up, and I need more for Act 6. But that's of course very debatable and will vary person to person.

Lormif

yoyoshark said:

You value a 5* crystal more than a t2a?

At this point of my progression I do, because I've only got a few 5* that are worth ranking up, and I need more for Act 6. But that's of course very debatable and will vary person to person.

you need the t2a more because you need to rank up those 5*.

Tiger360

Lormif said:

yoyoshark said:

I think that depends a lot on what you are excited about in the rewards for each. I made a quick table for myself as to the value of each reward for me, and broke it down by category. And for me I think it makes more sense to go for the Stable ones:



That being said, I'm not sure I'll be able to attempt the unstable rift once or twice just for fun

You value a 5* crystal more than a t2a?

Depends really. If you are lower tier player you want to focus on building your 5* roster. I personally value 5*'s over

Hendross

MBA finance has taught me to avoid high variance portfolios with unique risks which can not be diversified away.
I'll be going stable to isolate myself from extreme disappointment.

DarkestDestroyer

I think the rewards seem okay, worth the risk I would say, and the drop rates don’t seem too bad either

Werewrym

I wrote a simple excel sheet to test out the RNG... I don't like the unstable ones to be honest.

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Chacha888

After 100 crystals

The difference is

Unstable
5 awakening gem
5 featured 5* crystal

Vs.

Stable
10 regular 5* crystal
1250 6* shards
10 5* signature stone

If we assume featured 5 star crystal is worth 15000 shards and regular is worth 10000.

It’s now 5 awakening gem vs 2.5 5*crystals, 0.125 6*crystal and 10 signature stones. I rather have the former.

Mitchell35

I have too many t2a atm. I think for me, I’m fine with 2-3k 5 star shards, and that’s where stable pulls ahead for me. I don’t need the 5 star gem right now for anyone but starlord I guess—however I’ve already got ghost at rank 4. And above all, I want as little of a chance to pull 5* sig stones as possible. 🙄

Other things:

Is a 5* featured that much more valuable compared to a normal 5* crystal?

Is twice the t2a and t5b worth being half as likely to drop?

Are you willing to accept those 5* sig stones......?

V1PER1987

Chacha888 said:

After 100 crystals

The difference is

Unstable
5 awakening gem
5 featured 5* crystal

Vs.

Stable
10 regular 5* crystal
1250 6* shards
10 5* signature stone

If we assume featured 5 star crystal is worth 15000 shards and regular is worth 10000.

It’s now 5 awakening gem vs 2.5 5*crystals, 0.125 6*crystal and 10 signature stones. I rather have the former.

Why would you do the math on 100 crystals?

Dtl7714

To me it basically comes down to is a shot at 5%chance at AG, 5% shot at 5* featured,or 10%chance at t2a worth the risk of crappy rewards.

For me thats a no, so I will maximize rewards through stable rift

IKON

Should also include a factor of whether you need all class AGs. Personally at a point where I don't have the sig stones to make ags very helpful.

Dtl7714

Also to consider, is if your like me and never in the history of any rift type event have you seen a path with higher than a 2*chest you should probably stay away from unstable rifts.

DNA3000

I looked at the crystals from two perspectives, first average statistical value: https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/861112/#Comment_861112

Second, statistically likely ordinality, or "which crystal does better, if you ignore *how much* better?" https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/862242/#Comment_862242

Bottom line, assuming some reasonable assumptions about the value of an awakening gem and signature stones (which I state in the posts, and some might disagree with) the unstable crystal has more value on average, but the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal about 65% of the time.

In other words, two thirds of the time the stable crystal beats the unstable crystal, but the unstable crystal generates enough rewards *when* it beats the stable crystal that it pulls ahead in the long run.

DNA3000

V1PER1987 said:

Chacha888 said:

After 100 crystals

The difference is

Unstable
5 awakening gem
5 featured 5* crystal

Vs.

Stable
10 regular 5* crystal
1250 6* shards
10 5* signature stone

If we assume featured 5 star crystal is worth 15000 shards and regular is worth 10000.

It’s now 5 awakening gem vs 2.5 5*crystals, 0.125 6*crystal and 10 signature stones. I rather have the former.

Why would you do the math on 100 crystals?

It is usually a quick and dirty way to get rid of percentages in statistical calculations. A 5% chance of something happening is equivalent to that thing happening 5 times out of a hundred on average, and people generally like to think in whole numbers.

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MavRCK_

Werewrym said:

I wrote a simple excel sheet to test out the RNG... I don't like the unstable ones to be honest.

Thank you