Black ISO Market update - quick check

Saw the post; glad to see this is being updated! 🥳 just wanted to double-check, you mean the refresh on Monday, February 17, not the 19th, correct?

Comments

Ibby

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.

Jack0312

@Kabam Miike I won't open another thread to add my question on this subject, could you add the prices for the items please ?
For example, lengendary crystal is new...
It would be easier to read !

Kabam Miike

It's been fixed! It is the 17th.

Aldac

Which items will be moving to 7-day refresh? It would be great if the featured 5* crystal could be purchased weekly.

GOLB

How much is the legendary crystal

Gamer

Which items will be moving to 7-day refresh? It would be great if the featured 5* crystal could be purchased weekly.

That one won’t change

Gamer

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/182227/black-iso-market-update-feb-19-2020-corrected#latest Here @Aldac

DroidDoes

It's been fixed! It is the 17th.

Thanks Miike! Saw the ingame mail after the fact that confirmed it as well 👍

Kabam Miike

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.

It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!

Kabam Miike

@Kabam Miike I won't open another thread to add my question on this subject, could you add the prices for the items please ?
For example, lengendary crystal is new...
It would be easier to read !

I can try to do that! Got a lot going on today, but I can see what I can do a little later. In the meantime, I mentioned above that the Legendary Crystal will cost 5000 4-Star Shards.

DroidDoes

@Kabam Miike I won't open another thread to add my question on this subject, could you add the prices for the items please ?
For example, lengendary crystal is new...
It would be easier to read !
I can try to do that! Got a lot going on today, but I can see what I can do a little later. In the meantime, I mentioned above that the Legendary Crystal will cost 5000 4-Star Shards.

Cool, thanks for whatever info you can provide today Miike 👍 looking forward to doing a full breakdown/update vid come Monday for everyone!

Neotwism

I would still like to see more of the early access preview crystals for the new champ. We had it once and that's been it. I really liked that and have been hoping every month that it would return permanently.

CoatHang3r

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!

That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.

Frosty

Which items will be moving to 7-day refresh? It would be great if the featured 5* crystal could be purchased weekly.

I would buy the sigil if the featured 5* refreshed weekly

Gamer

@Kabam Miike I won't open another thread to add my question on this subject, could you add the prices for the items please ?
For example, lengendary crystal is new...
It would be easier to read !
I can try to do that! Got a lot going on today, but I can see what I can do a little later. In the meantime, I mentioned above that the Legendary Crystal will cost 5000 4-Star Shards.

Shuld had ben 4k man more fair.

GOLB

Is the legendary every character in there or is it like a featured legendary

Jack0312

Thanks @Kabam Miike and I hope there will be more announcements to come, we need and deserve them !

(Could you please create a new thread like the one we had during the maintenance please ? It was really appreciated !)

VanillaCoke

DroidDoes is the man 😎👍🏼

DNA3000

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!
That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.

Legendary crystals have a 20% chance to drop a 5*. So on average you'd be paying 25000 4* shards for four 4* champs and one 5* champ. To make the numbers round let's look at 50000 4* shards. That would buy eight 4* champs and two 5* champs in legendary crystals (again: on average). Alternatively, they could buy 25 4* champions. The difference is twenty-one 4* champs and two 5* champs.

However, 4* champs generate 5* shards on duplication. 275, plus another 275 (most of the time) if you get a max sig crystal. Suppose you're someone that has a lot of max sig 4* champs so it is likely you'd get 550 shards per 4* most of the time. In that case the 21 4* champs would generate 11500 5* shards, which is a whole 5* basic crystal plus change.

So someone buying the legendary crystal ten times would expect to get the equivalent value of about 8500 5* shards, not counting all the extra resources you'd get from duplicating all those 4* champs (ISO, gold), over and above someone that chose to skip it and just buy 4* champs. The value would be somewhat higher for a player with an undeveloped 4* roster (because they would get fewer 5* shards for every 4* pull).

But compared to someone with a well developed 4* roster, the legendary crystal in an approximate sense generates one extra 5* champion out of every twelve purchases. If that's available once every two weeks, that would be a 5* champ about every six months. That seems a little low to me.

Another way to look at it is to compare the legendary crystal with another Sigil store option: converting 4* shards into 5* shards directly. We can buy 1000 5* shards for 2000 4* shards which means we can (eventually) directly convert 20000 4* shards into a 5* champ.

Again, just to make the numbers round for easy viewing, 100k 4* shards can become five 5* champs or 20 legendary crystals which become (on average) 16 4* champs and 4 5* champs. It takes between 18 and 36 4* dups to get enough shards for a 5* champ, so that means the legendary crystals actually generate fewer 5* champs over time than the 1000 5* shard conversion does. Unless you really need the gold and ISO from the 4* dups, the 1000 5* shard conversion is better.

@Kabam Miike was this the intent of the Legendary crystal Sigil offer? It is worth slightly more than the 5000 4* shards it costs, but less than the 1000 5* shard offer that already exists in the Sigil. Of course, you can buy them both so buying both is better than only buying one, but was the intent for the Legendary crystal value to be that low?

CoatHang3r

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!
That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.
Legendary crystals have a 20% chance to drop a 5*.

There are two road blocks, for me, with the math behind the legendary at this price point.

Firstly, for me a 4* is worth 550 5* shards. Iso and gold hold no weight. The market offers an increased value for what you buy, except for the legendary.

1) To put it simply. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If this was an equation (which it’s not) the value is closer to 1.75 birds in the bush, a more unfavorable outcome.

2) Relating to 20% chance, you can easily and repeatedly come out with the short end of this. The old featured 5* were believed to be a 20-25% chance, I opened 14 before hitting those odds on my last 2 ever features so I was 1/8 != 1/5. My odds with legendary crystals are a similar or worse experience.

To equate the 20% chance to in game everyday terms it’s the same odds of an awakened Voodoo placing a Loa on the opponent. Players are likely aware how frustrating this can be if you fail the average when relying on those odds. Imagine getting that chance to place a Loa twice a month with a price tag.

DNA3000

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!
That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.
Legendary crystals have a 20% chance to drop a 5*.
There are two road blocks, for me, with the math behind the legendary at this price point.

Firstly, for me a 4* is worth 550 5* shards. Iso and gold hold no weight. The market offers an increased value for what you buy, except for the legendary.

1) To put it simply. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If this was an equation (which it’s not) the value is closer to 1.75 birds in the bush, a more unfavorable outcome.

2) Relating to 20% chance, you can easily and repeatedly come out with the short end of this. The old featured 5* were believed to be a 20-25% chance, I opened 14 before hitting those odds on my last 2 ever features so I was 1/8 != 1/5. My odds with legendary crystals are a similar or worse experience.

To equate the 20% chance to in game everyday terms it’s the same odds of an awakened Voodoo placing a Loa on the opponent. Players are likely aware how frustrating this can be if you fail the average when relying on those odds. Imagine getting that chance to place a Loa twice a month with a price tag.

1. The math presumes the maximum shard outcome from 4* duplication: 550 shards per 4*.

2. Actual outcomes can and will be better or worse, but that's the point to calculating expected average value. We do this all the time in the real world: it is how we calculate the value of insurance, the value of our investments, the value of all real world commodities that have situational value. I see no reason to not use the universally accepted definition of expected average value, but if you value crystals differently, like if you're extremely and disproportionately risk averse, then you are free to perform an alternate calculation instead.

However, if I'm designing a game and a game economy, I would have to be convinced to use any other definition when evaluating value, and it would have to be extremely situationally precise to convince me.

DNA3000

Firstly, for me a 4* is worth 550 5* shards. Iso and gold hold no weight. The market offers an increased value for what you buy, except for the legendary.

The simplified calculation based on this assumption is that 5000 4* shards is worth 2.5 * 550 = 1375 5* shards. One Legendary crystal is worth 0.8 * 550 + 0.2 * 10000 = 2440 5* shards, so the Legendary crystal has more value, as most people define value.

The flip side massively risk-averse calculation says that for the Legendary crystal to break even with 5000 4* shard cost (1-n) * 550 + n * 10000 = 1375; n = 11/126 ~= 0.087. Or alternatively, for the Legendary crystal to break even with its costs assuming you value a 4* champ as basically 550 5* shards, you'd have to pull a 5* champ about once out of every 11 openings.

So if you believe your luck is so bad that over the long haul you're going to get less than one 5* champ out of every eleven openings, in a crystal with a one in five chance of pulling a 5* champ, then the Legendary crystal is not worth the shards. If you believe your luck will average out to better than that, the Legendary crystal is worth more than the shards you put into them.

Greywarden

bring back featured champ crystals in the black market

CoatHang3r

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!
That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.
Legendary crystals have a 20% chance to drop a 5*.
There are two road blocks, for me, with the math behind the legendary at this price point.

Firstly, for me a 4* is worth 550 5* shards. Iso and gold hold no weight. The market offers an increased value for what you buy, except for the legendary.

1) To put it simply. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If this was an equation (which it’s not) the value is closer to 1.75 birds in the bush, a more unfavorable outcome.

2) Relating to 20% chance, you can easily and repeatedly come out with the short end of this. The old featured 5* were believed to be a 20-25% chance, I opened 14 before hitting those odds on my last 2 ever features so I was 1/8 != 1/5. My odds with legendary crystals are a similar or worse experience.

To equate the 20% chance to in game everyday terms it’s the same odds of an awakened Voodoo placing a Loa on the opponent. Players are likely aware how frustrating this can be if you fail the average when relying on those odds. Imagine getting that chance to place a Loa twice a month with a price tag.
2. Actual outcomes can and will be better or worse, but that's the point to calculating expected average value. We do this all the time in the real world: it is how we calculate the value of insurance, the value of our investments, the value of all real world commodities that have situational value. I see no reason to not use the universally accepted definition of expected average value, but if you value crystals differently, like if you're extremely and disproportionately risk averse, then you are free to perform an alternate calculation instead.

However, if I'm designing a game and a game economy, I would have to be convinced to use any other definition when evaluating value, and it would have to be extremely situationally precise to convince me.

I can’t help but read this as advocating the junk bond value of the sigil.

I’m not risk adverse at all, I however prefer to mitigate that risk and not gamble against highly unfavorable odds.

Caino1023

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!

Wow that’s definitely not worth it. That’s really disappointing after hearing legendary are being put in

Kabam Miike

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!
That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.
Legendary crystals have a 20% chance to drop a 5*. So on average you'd be paying 25000 4* shards for four 4* champs and one 5* champ. To make the numbers round let's look at 50000 4* shards. That would buy eight 4* champs and two 5* champs in legendary crystals (again: on average). Alternatively, they could buy 25 4* champions. The difference is twenty-one 4* champs and two 5* champs.

However, 4* champs generate 5* shards on duplication. 275, plus another 275 (most of the time) if you get a max sig crystal. Suppose you're someone that has a lot of max sig 4* champs so it is likely you'd get 550 shards per 4* most of the time. In that case the 21 4* champs would generate 11500 5* shards, which is a whole 5* basic crystal plus change.

So someone buying the legendary crystal ten times would expect to get the equivalent value of about 8500 5* shards, not counting all the extra resources you'd get from duplicating all those 4* champs (ISO, gold), over and above someone that chose to skip it and just buy 4* champs. The value would be somewhat higher for a player with an undeveloped 4* roster (because they would get fewer 5* shards for every 4* pull).

But compared to someone with a well developed 4* roster, the legendary crystal in an approximate sense generates one extra 5* champion out of every twelve purchases. If that's available once every two weeks, that would be a 5* champ about every six months. That seems a little low to me.

Another way to look at it is to compare the legendary crystal with another Sigil store option: converting 4* shards into 5* shards directly. We can buy 1000 5* shards for 2000 4* shards which means we can (eventually) directly convert 20000 4* shards into a 5* champ.

Again, just to make the numbers round for easy viewing, 100k 4* shards can become five 5* champs or 20 legendary crystals which become (on average) 16 4* champs and 4 5* champs. It takes between 18 and 36 4* dups to get enough shards for a 5* champ, so that means the legendary crystals actually generate fewer 5* champs over time than the 1000 5* shard conversion does. Unless you really need the gold and ISO from the 4* dups, the 1000 5* shard conversion is better.

@Kabam Miike was this the intent of the Legendary crystal Sigil offer? It is worth slightly more than the 5000 4* shards it costs, but less than the 1000 5* shard offer that already exists in the Sigil. Of course, you can buy them both so buying both is better than only buying one, but was the intent for the Legendary crystal value to be that low?

This is directly from our Designer:

"@DNA3000 as you detailed it accurately, the 2 offers are quite similar in the amount of 4-Star shards it requires to have a 5-Star, for *cavalier players*. The offer is also available for Uncollected players, and for them they only get 750 5-Star shards for their 2.000 4-Star shards, making the Legendary Crystal a way better deal if they focus only on 5-Star Heroes
What you get in those 2 offers for 100.000 4-Star shards is as follow:

Uncollected: 750 5-Star shards:
-37.500 5-Star Shards

Cavalier : 1.000 5-Star shards:
- 50.000 5-Star Shards

1 Legendary Crystal:
- 4 5-Star Heroes
-16 4-Star Heroes

Of course the best would be to buy both offers to maximize the 5-Star shards you get. But if you can't you need to make a choice. Are you willing to trade those 16 4-Star Heroes, the Gold and ISO for another 5-Star Hero?
The Legendary is by itself is a better value, but there is some randomness to it. Remember that over 100k 4-Star shards some players may pull 10 5-Star heroes.

Are you feeling lucky?"

Motheawesome

@Kabam Miike 5k 4* shards is way too much for the legendary crystal, 2.5 4* for a 20% chance for a 5* that more than likely be someone with little use in the endgame.

5k 4* shards at best will get you 1.1k 5* shards plus iso and or 2k 5* shards in the Black iso store which already covers the 20% of a 5* crystal.

In my eyes 3k is the perfect amount but that’s just me,

DNA3000

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!
That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.
Legendary crystals have a 20% chance to drop a 5*.
There are two road blocks, for me, with the math behind the legendary at this price point.

Firstly, for me a 4* is worth 550 5* shards. Iso and gold hold no weight. The market offers an increased value for what you buy, except for the legendary.

1) To put it simply. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If this was an equation (which it’s not) the value is closer to 1.75 birds in the bush, a more unfavorable outcome.

2) Relating to 20% chance, you can easily and repeatedly come out with the short end of this. The old featured 5* were believed to be a 20-25% chance, I opened 14 before hitting those odds on my last 2 ever features so I was 1/8 != 1/5. My odds with legendary crystals are a similar or worse experience.

To equate the 20% chance to in game everyday terms it’s the same odds of an awakened Voodoo placing a Loa on the opponent. Players are likely aware how frustrating this can be if you fail the average when relying on those odds. Imagine getting that chance to place a Loa twice a month with a price tag.
2. Actual outcomes can and will be better or worse, but that's the point to calculating expected average value. We do this all the time in the real world: it is how we calculate the value of insurance, the value of our investments, the value of all real world commodities that have situational value. I see no reason to not use the universally accepted definition of expected average value, but if you value crystals differently, like if you're extremely and disproportionately risk averse, then you are free to perform an alternate calculation instead.

However, if I'm designing a game and a game economy, I would have to be convinced to use any other definition when evaluating value, and it would have to be extremely situationally precise to convince me.
I can’t help but read this as advocating the junk bond value of the sigil.

I’m not risk adverse at all, I however prefer to mitigate that risk and not gamble against highly unfavorable odds.

First of all, "junk bonds" are junk because they have high risk due not to a simply question of higher chance of default, but because that higher chance is generally due to significant unknown or uncategorized risk factors. In other words, the risk is high not because the numbers are known and low, but because they are largely unknown. That's not the case where.

Second, there seems to be some misunderstanding of what "expected average value is." It is not synonymous with "what I would pay." Generally, there is a premium placed on risk relative to certain outcomes. But since everyone's risk premium is different, the expected average value is used to determine the valuation floor - the point where risk premiums are applied.

In other words, almost no one says "the average adjusted value of Y is X, so I'll pay X." Instead, they generally say "the average adjusted value of Y is X, so to get me to buy Y you'll have to sell it for something less than X since the actual value of Y is variable. How much less depends on who you're talking to.

However, even for me calculating the value of a Legendary crystal using Black-Scholes is going a bit too far.

Jawarrior2001

What you get in those 2 offers for 100.000 4-Star shards is as follow:

Uncollected: 750 5-Star shards:
-37.500 5-Star Shards

Cavalier : 1.000 5-Star shards:
- 50.000 5-Star Shards

1 Legendary Crystal:
- 4 5-Star Heroes
-16 4-Star Heroes

Of course the best would be to buy both offers to maximize the 5-Star shards you get. But if you can't you need to make a choice. Are you willing to trade those 16 4-Star Heroes, the Gold and ISO for another 5-Star Hero?
The Legendary is by itself is a better value, but there is some randomness to it. Remember that over 100k 4-Star shards some players may pull 10 5-Star heroes.

Are you feeling lucky?"

Looking at the way you've that has been worded Kabam Miike, are you saying that if you spent the 100k 4* shards on the Legendary crystals you will DEFINITELY get 4 5* champs at minimum, given that the crystals have an 80% chance of a 4* hero PER crystal, you could spend 5,000,000 4* shards and still only get 4* champions because the odds of each individual crystal leans far more towards 4* then 5*

DNA3000

Also would like to know the cost of the leganday crystal? Would it be 4 star shards premium etc.
It looks like it's 5000 4-Star Shards!
That’s disappointing, I was entertaining the idea of returning to the Sigil due to the legendary but that appears to hold little value given you’re highly likely purchasing a 4* for 5000 4* shards every 2 weeks. Here’s hoping the Sigil gets another tier in the future.
Legendary crystals have a 20% chance to drop a 5*. So on average you'd be paying 25000 4* shards for four 4* champs and one 5* champ. To make the numbers round let's look at 50000 4* shards. That would buy eight 4* champs and two 5* champs in legendary crystals (again: on average). Alternatively, they could buy 25 4* champions. The difference is twenty-one 4* champs and two 5* champs.

However, 4* champs generate 5* shards on duplication. 275, plus another 275 (most of the time) if you get a max sig crystal. Suppose you're someone that has a lot of max sig 4* champs so it is likely you'd get 550 shards per 4* most of the time. In that case the 21 4* champs would generate 11500 5* shards, which is a whole 5* basic crystal plus change.

So someone buying the legendary crystal ten times would expect to get the equivalent value of about 8500 5* shards, not counting all the extra resources you'd get from duplicating all those 4* champs (ISO, gold), over and above someone that chose to skip it and just buy 4* champs. The value would be somewhat higher for a player with an undeveloped 4* roster (because they would get fewer 5* shards for every 4* pull).

But compared to someone with a well developed 4* roster, the legendary crystal in an approximate sense generates one extra 5* champion out of every twelve purchases. If that's available once every two weeks, that would be a 5* champ about every six months. That seems a little low to me.

Another way to look at it is to compare the legendary crystal with another Sigil store option: converting 4* shards into 5* shards directly. We can buy 1000 5* shards for 2000 4* shards which means we can (eventually) directly convert 20000 4* shards into a 5* champ.

Again, just to make the numbers round for easy viewing, 100k 4* shards can become five 5* champs or 20 legendary crystals which become (on average) 16 4* champs and 4 5* champs. It takes between 18 and 36 4* dups to get enough shards for a 5* champ, so that means the legendary crystals actually generate fewer 5* champs over time than the 1000 5* shard conversion does. Unless you really need the gold and ISO from the 4* dups, the 1000 5* shard conversion is better.

@Kabam Miike was this the intent of the Legendary crystal Sigil offer? It is worth slightly more than the 5000 4* shards it costs, but less than the 1000 5* shard offer that already exists in the Sigil. Of course, you can buy them both so buying both is better than only buying one, but was the intent for the Legendary crystal value to be that low?
This is directly from our Designer:

"@DNA3000 as you detailed it accurately, the 2 offers are quite similar in the amount of 4-Star shards it requires to have a 5-Star, for *cavalier players*. The offer is also available for Uncollected players, and for them they only get 750 5-Star shards for their 2.000 4-Star shards, making the Legendary Crystal a way better deal if they focus only on 5-Star Heroes
What you get in those 2 offers for 100.000 4-Star shards is as follow:

Uncollected: 750 5-Star shards:
-37.500 5-Star Shards

Cavalier : 1.000 5-Star shards:
- 50.000 5-Star Shards

1 Legendary Crystal:
- 4 5-Star Heroes
-16 4-Star Heroes

Of course the best would be to buy both offers to maximize the 5-Star shards you get. But if you can't you need to make a choice. Are you willing to trade those 16 4-Star Heroes, the Gold and ISO for another 5-Star Hero?
The Legendary is by itself is a better value, but there is some randomness to it. Remember that over 100k 4-Star shards some players may pull 10 5-Star heroes.

Are you feeling lucky?"

I concede that if the Legendary offer costs the same for UC players it is a better deal for them. But I was focusing on, in a sense, the "best-worst case scenario" of Cavalier players with max sig 4* rosters on the assumption the offer should make sense for them as well. For them, trading 16 4* champs for one 5* champ is generally going to be the better trade. Even at max sig duplication 16 4* champs don't quite make one 5* champ.

The *average* case of the Legendary crystal is not better value specifically for those players, as the designer's numbers agree with mine and confirm that. It will sometimes be better and sometimes worse, but in the average case for the crystal for Cavalier players with maxed out 4* rosters it will be worse in terms of 5* champions. And usually risk and randomness come with a premium not a penalty.

If we reduce the cost of the Legendary crystal specifically for Cavalier players from 5000 4* shards to 4400 4* shards, then the numbers work out for the Legendary crystal to be comparable to and generally slightly better than the 5* conversion even for Cavalier players with not-maxed 4* rosters. It seems to be a reasonable change, as it makes the crystal slightly cheaper for Cavalier players giving them a slight benefit, and it improves the value of the crystal just enough to make it not worse than the 5* conversion, which it shouldn't be since the crystal is random and thus contains risk, which should offer a premium in value for that risk.