Math experts help me here(dual class crystal probability)

135

Comments

  • 16wegnerk16wegnerk Member Posts: 214 ★★
    edited October 2020

    The OP stated that they believed the chance should increase the more they open, but only the number of chances taken increases. The odds will still be 1/45 each time they open the Dual Crystal.

    You’re partially right. OP asked about the odds of pulling ant-man once out of 5 crystals. The odds of that are not 1/45. The odds of pulling him from any individual crystal are indeed 1/45 as you described. The odds of pulling him once in 5 crystals is not = 1/45, it has been described correctly in depth many times in the post
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    16wegnerk said:

    The OP stated that they believed the chance should increase the more they open, but only the number of chances taken increases. The odds will still be 1/45 each time they open the Dual Crystal.

    You’re partially right. OP asked about the odds of pulling ant-man once out of 5 crystals. The odds of that are not 1/45. The odds of pulling him from any individual crystal are indeed 1/45 as you described. The odds of pulling him once in 5 crystals is not = 1/45, it has been described correctly in depth many times in the post
    This is something that I've debated a number of times on here. The 5 chances are not cumulative. The Probability formula can be applied and the math works out, but all that does is put a numerical value on how unlucky they've been 5 times. It's not as if the outcome changes if the first pull, or the second pull, or even the third pull are negative. The OP has a 1/45 chance for every Crystal they pull. 1/45, 5 times.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    Purchasing multiple Crystals does not increase the odds. Only the number of tries.
  • DjinDjin Member Posts: 1,962 ★★★★★
    ATLEAST 1 Antman can be calculated by
    1-(no Antman)^x, x is number of crystals.

    EXACTLY 1 Antman will have 5 different cases.
    Number of cases depends on number of crystals opened.
    He gets Antman in 1st; 2,3,4,5 no Antman
    He gets Antman in 2nd; 1,3,4,5 no Antman
    He gets Antman in 3rd crystal; 1,2,4,5 no Antman
    And so on...
    This can be calculated by.

    1/45 is chance of pulling 1 Antman
    44/45 is chance of not pulling Antman
    x is number of crystals.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,200 ★★★★★
    Roman4544 said:

    What is the probability that in 5(50k shards) tries I'm able to get my Ant boy in one of them?

    Read it again. It shouldn't be this hard to understand.
  • 16wegnerk16wegnerk Member Posts: 214 ★★
    Don’t know what to tell you man. The numbers don’t lie, it’s the interpretation that can lead people astray. You can look at the probability of a set of individual events without changing the odds in any given crystal. And yes it, simply put, the probability puts a number on how unlucky people get - but the numbers don’t lie, just the interpretation of the math.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,200 ★★★★★
    edited October 2020

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain. We're not talking about the chances of pulling him from one crystal. We're talking about pulling him at least once from multiple crystals. It's like you're not even reading the responses, you're just arguing.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,200 ★★★★★

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
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  • DjinDjin Member Posts: 1,962 ★★★★★

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    I bet you've never solved this question.
    "What is the probability of obtaining at least one 6, when a dice is thrown x times?"
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
  • This content has been removed.
  • 16wegnerk16wegnerk Member Posts: 214 ★★

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
  • shield456shield456 Member Posts: 1,980 ★★★
    Korg said:

    Since Ant Man is a bad character, the chances of you pulling him are through the roof.

    Even I was going to mention that
  • shield456shield456 Member Posts: 1,980 ★★★
    Math class going on here.
    Ch 5 Probability

    😂
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    In any case, this debate goes on forever. Lol. What I'm saying is the OP has the same odds with 1 Crystal as they do 5. They have more chances (tries) with 5, but that doesn't alter the Drop Rate, which remains constant.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,200 ★★★★★

    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
    Yes, we know all that. It's why we use words like chance and probability. But again, you're arguing the wrong thing - we're still not talking about what you're arguing against.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,200 ★★★★★

    In any case, this debate goes on forever. Lol. What I'm saying is the OP has the same odds with 1 Crystal as they do 5. They have more chances (tries) with 5, but that doesn't alter the Drop Rate, which remains constant.

    Again, we are NOT TALKING ABOUT THE DROP RATES OF INDIVIDUAL CRYSTALS. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE CHANCES OF PULLING ONE ANTMAN FROM FIVE CRYSTALS, NOT JUST ONE.
  • 16wegnerk16wegnerk Member Posts: 214 ★★
    edited October 2020

    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
    While you are correct we can’t guarantee the future, OP asked the probability. And we answered. You can estimate the number of crystals needed using probability, but yes, it will be only an estimate. But OP isn’t looking for an answer of “pop crystals forever until you get lucky”, they asked for a probability out of 5 crystals which is what everyone else is giving them and you are trying to argue is “correct but incorrect” somehow.

    You’re literally saying our math is correct and then going forward with different logic claiming something else that is mathematically incorrect.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    I've said it before and I'll say it again, I stay away from calculating probability when it comes to Crystals.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    16wegnerk said:

    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
    While you are correct we can’t guarantee the future, OP asked the probability. And we answered. You can estimate the number of crystals needed using probability, but yes, it will be only an estimate. But OP isn’t looking for an answer of “pop crystals forever until you get lucky”, they asked for a probability out of 5 crystals which is what everyone else is giving them and you are trying to argue is “correct but incorrect” somehow.

    You’re literally saying our math is correct and then going forward with different logic claiming something else that is mathematically incorrect.
    It's not mathematically incorrect at all. Each Crystal has a 1/45 chance at Ant-Man. You open one, 1/45. You open 2, 1/45, 1/45. 10 of them, same thing. If you want to calculate the probability, be my guest. It's still going to be a 1/45 chance no matter how many of them you open.
  • Agent_X_zzzAgent_X_zzz Member Posts: 4,498 ★★★★★
    Elad17 said:

    1/45 per roll so out of 5 crystals your chances are .00045

    You need to go back to school
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,200 ★★★★★

    16wegnerk said:

    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
    While you are correct we can’t guarantee the future, OP asked the probability. And we answered. You can estimate the number of crystals needed using probability, but yes, it will be only an estimate. But OP isn’t looking for an answer of “pop crystals forever until you get lucky”, they asked for a probability out of 5 crystals which is what everyone else is giving them and you are trying to argue is “correct but incorrect” somehow.

    You’re literally saying our math is correct and then going forward with different logic claiming something else that is mathematically incorrect.
    It's not mathematically incorrect at all. Each Crystal has a 1/45 chance at Ant-Man. You open one, 1/45. You open 2, 1/45, 1/45. 10 of them, same thing. If you want to calculate the probability, be my guest. It's still going to be a 1/45 chance no matter how many of them you open.
    Once again, that's not what the OP wanted to know.
  • 16wegnerk16wegnerk Member Posts: 214 ★★

    16wegnerk said:

    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
    While you are correct we can’t guarantee the future, OP asked the probability. And we answered. You can estimate the number of crystals needed using probability, but yes, it will be only an estimate. But OP isn’t looking for an answer of “pop crystals forever until you get lucky”, they asked for a probability out of 5 crystals which is what everyone else is giving them and you are trying to argue is “correct but incorrect” somehow.

    You’re literally saying our math is correct and then going forward with different logic claiming something else that is mathematically incorrect.
    It's not mathematically incorrect at all. Each Crystal has a 1/45 chance at Ant-Man. You open one, 1/45. You open 2, 1/45, 1/45. 10 of them, same thing. If you want to calculate the probability, be my guest. It's still going to be a 1/45 chance no matter how many of them you open.
    Actually you said “OP has the same odds with 1 crystal as they do with 5” which is indeed false. I get what you’re trying to say, but as I said before the numbers don’t lie, it’s the interpretation. What you’re trying to say is something that is true, but when you’re bringing words into your math it’s ending up in statements that are false.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    16wegnerk said:

    16wegnerk said:

    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
    While you are correct we can’t guarantee the future, OP asked the probability. And we answered. You can estimate the number of crystals needed using probability, but yes, it will be only an estimate. But OP isn’t looking for an answer of “pop crystals forever until you get lucky”, they asked for a probability out of 5 crystals which is what everyone else is giving them and you are trying to argue is “correct but incorrect” somehow.

    You’re literally saying our math is correct and then going forward with different logic claiming something else that is mathematically incorrect.
    It's not mathematically incorrect at all. Each Crystal has a 1/45 chance at Ant-Man. You open one, 1/45. You open 2, 1/45, 1/45. 10 of them, same thing. If you want to calculate the probability, be my guest. It's still going to be a 1/45 chance no matter how many of them you open.
    Actually you said “OP has the same odds with 1 crystal as they do with 5” which is indeed false. I get what you’re trying to say, but as I said before the numbers don’t lie, it’s the interpretation. What you’re trying to say is something that is true, but when you’re bringing words into your math it’s ending up in statements that are false.
    I get that some people are Mathematical Fundamentalists, but the Drop Rates are the odds, and they're not increased or decreased by the number of times you open (roll) them.
  • 16wegnerk16wegnerk Member Posts: 214 ★★

    16wegnerk said:

    16wegnerk said:

    16wegnerk said:

    Snizzbar said:

    Snizzbar said:

    People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.

    You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
    Okay then. Predict rolls.
    I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about.
    If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct?
    If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
    There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
    You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
    Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
    While you are correct we can’t guarantee the future, OP asked the probability. And we answered. You can estimate the number of crystals needed using probability, but yes, it will be only an estimate. But OP isn’t looking for an answer of “pop crystals forever until you get lucky”, they asked for a probability out of 5 crystals which is what everyone else is giving them and you are trying to argue is “correct but incorrect” somehow.

    You’re literally saying our math is correct and then going forward with different logic claiming something else that is mathematically incorrect.
    It's not mathematically incorrect at all. Each Crystal has a 1/45 chance at Ant-Man. You open one, 1/45. You open 2, 1/45, 1/45. 10 of them, same thing. If you want to calculate the probability, be my guest. It's still going to be a 1/45 chance no matter how many of them you open.
    Actually you said “OP has the same odds with 1 crystal as they do with 5” which is indeed false. I get what you’re trying to say, but as I said before the numbers don’t lie, it’s the interpretation. What you’re trying to say is something that is true, but when you’re bringing words into your math it’s ending up in statements that are false.
    I get that some people are Mathematical Fundamentalists, but the Drop Rates are the odds, and they're not increased or decreased by the number of times you open (roll) them.
    Right. But the odds of 1 crystal isn’t equal to the odds of 5 crystals. That’s simply a false statement. The odds of each individual crystal within those 5 are equal, which is what you’re trying to say. But that isn’t the question asked.
  • SnizzbarSnizzbar Member Posts: 2,200 ★★★★★
    @GroundedWisdom please just go and read through the link that Dr Zola posted on page 2. You are talking about 'Individual Events' but we are talking about 'Two or More Events'. It's further on down the page.
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