I think we can agree to disagree. It isn't going to do the OP any favors to calculate it. They'll open their Crystals and either get him or they won't.
Agreed, don’t think there’s any way to change your mind about the value of calculating the overall probability. I certainly appreciate the discussion though. It’s made for a fun evening
@GroundedWisdom have you read the link though? I don't mind you disagreeing with me, but you're either disagreeing with *maths* or you've got your fingers in your ears and you're shouting "LA LA LA" at the top of your voice.
People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.
You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
Okay then. Predict rolls.
I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about. If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct? If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
This completely ignores what the definition of probability is. By definition, if you calculate the odds of something happening to be any number less than 100%, there is no way to guarantee the outcome. That's what probability means. So when you say there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open, that's true but also completely irrelevant. No probability calculation makes that claim.
Some people understand maths, some people understand questions like the one asked by OP and then the Endless Wonders of mcoc just see 'crystals' and 'probability' which trigger their troll/stubbornly blind response.
People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.
You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
Okay then. Predict rolls.
I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about. If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct? If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
You are correct, it could be Tails twice. It’s a 25% chance in the situation above. Not the most likely outcome but very possible.
Yes, but the reality is there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open to pull him. You are correct mathematically. However, when there's a random outcome, there are no guarantees. In the OP's case, they could pull him on the first one, or never in 100. No matter how we try to apply it, we cannot dependably predict how many Crystals the OP has to open to get him.
This completely ignores what the definition of probability is. By definition, if you calculate the odds of something happening to be any number less than 100%, there is no way to guarantee the outcome. That's what probability means. So when you say there's no way to predict how many Crystals the OP would have to open, that's true but also completely irrelevant. No probability calculation makes that claim.
The point I'm driving home is calculating the probability of pulling him once in 5 Crystals won't affect the outcome, and pulling 5 Crystals won't change the rate. The OP asked, and people answered. Fair enough. I just don't see what difference that's going to make. As for my other claim, it's 1/24. That's the favorable outcome out of possibilities. Out of 5 chances, that's the same. It's still 1/24. If you wanted to say 5/120, it's still 1/24. The only thing opening 5 Crystals will do is give the OP 5 chances to get Ant-Man.
In any event, if you really want him OP, it's up to you. There's more of a chance in them than the Basic. I would suggest pulling one now and then instead of going all-out. I've had better experiences with them that way than investing all my Shards into them.
People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.
You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
Okay then. Predict rolls.
I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about. If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct? If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
TT is tails/tails. 25% chance of that happening. I can't believe you're trying to argue with MATH, for God's sake.
People can calculate ad nauseum, but there's no mathematical equation for chance. Unless it's been passed through The Ether. Lol. The point I'm making is whether the OP buys one Crystal, or opens them in packs of 10, it's a 1/45 chance to pull Ant-Man, and that doesn't change with the number of rolls they try.
You're so absolutely and fundamentally wrong it hurts my brain.
Okay then. Predict rolls.
I can't, but that's also not what we're talking about. If I flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance for heads or tails. Correct? If I flip the coin twice, there's a 75% chance I will get at least one head, because the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT. Three of those outcomes have at least one head, and THAT is what we're talking about when we open multiple crystals.
There's also the chance it can be tails everytime. That's because everytime you flip it, it can go one of two ways. There's no accounting for how it rolls. You can analyze after the fact, but that really does little in the way of calculating how many times you have to do it to get a desired outcome. Take the Featured. One person can pull Professor X with the first and only Crystal they buy. Another can buy 30 and never pull him. Each Crystal is a 1/24 chance, and you either pull that chance, or you don't.
TT is tails/tails. 25% chance of that happening. I can't believe you're trying to argue with MATH, for God's sake.
As usual he's arguing for the sake of arguing per se. His username should be ThatSemanticsGuy.
No, I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing. I'm pointing out the fact that no matter how many Crystals you open, the Drop Rate is still the same per Crystal, and you can't calculate luck.
No, I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing. I'm pointing out the fact that no matter how many Crystals you open, the Drop Rate is still the same per Crystal, and you can't calculate luck.
Yes you are correct. The Drop Rate is always the same per crystal. Once again, and for the last time tonight - WE ARE NOT talking about the drop rate PER CRYSTAL. We are discussing the odds of pulling a single champ, at least once, from MULTIPLE CRYSTALS. They are related but THEY ARE NOT THE SAME THING.
Why are you so unwilling to entertain the possibility that you're wrong? And where is your evidence that you're right? Go online and find a math site that proves what you're saying is right. And then show us. Please.
To everyone insisting upon one or both of the following, assuming the odds are actually 1/45:
A) since they are independent events it's just 1/45 to get at least one ant man no matter how many crystals you open Probabilities don't matter since we can't predict the future
Will any one of you give me 40-1 odds on $500 that he'll get at least one ant-man in 250 crystals? If it's 1/45 that a terrible bet for me, right? (I'll want to adjust the odds of the bet depending on the actual odds to pull ant-man from one crystal)
Sure, it's a silly bet since we'll probably never have an opportunity to open 250 crystals, but just for funsies, you know?
I think we can agree to disagree. It isn't going to do the OP any favors to calculate it. They'll open their Crystals and either get him or they won't.
So he either gets ant-man or he doesn't. 50% odds. not too bad!!
Comments
Once again, and for the last time tonight - WE ARE NOT talking about the drop rate PER CRYSTAL.
We are discussing the odds of pulling a single champ, at least once, from MULTIPLE CRYSTALS.
They are related but THEY ARE NOT THE SAME THING.
Would another pretty picture help?
Go online and find a math site that proves what you're saying is right. And then show us. Please.
A) since they are independent events it's just 1/45 to get at least one ant man no matter how many crystals you open
Will any one of you give me 40-1 odds on $500 that he'll get at least one ant-man in 250 crystals? If it's 1/45 that a terrible bet for me, right? (I'll want to adjust the odds of the bet depending on the actual odds to pull ant-man from one crystal)
Sure, it's a silly bet since we'll probably never have an opportunity to open 250 crystals, but just for funsies, you know?
Was answered correctly back on that initial day by numerous people. Not sure why Morpheus even revived this thread a whole 2+ months later.