**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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Dr. Zola
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html
Dr. Zola
Gives the same amount.
NGL I was thinking of switching up about 3 crystals ago, did at least 10 maybe 15 featured crystals too with nothing.
My other account pulled a bunch of trash/mediocrity, but then got Magik, Doom x2, and Cap (FINALLY).
As someone mentioned, it clearly doesn't happen often otherwise we'd see it all over forums from the conspiracy theorists.
Just because it happened to you doesnt suddenly mean the game is rigged and you have to see game code to prove otherwise. What about the bloke who's first 2 6* champs were both Corvus? What about me who has got Aegon in the only 2x 5* nexus I've opened?
If you can't handle a game with RNG when you get bad rolls, play something else.
I really think Kabam should of assigned these crystals all to one specific class
The notion that people have to take random generators on faith is false. The problem is that most people, as in 99.9% of all humans, don't understand randomness on any practical level, and thus their intuition leads them in directions that make it impossible for them to either analyze or criticize random generators in a meaningful way.
Let's tackle this one. Let's assume the anecdote is accurate (this is not a safe assumption when it comes to anecdotes about probability, but we'll make it here). There's somewhere around 60 champs in a dual class crystal, plus or minus. The odds of pulling the same champ seven times out of thirty pulls, assuming no other context, is about one in 23000. The math: assume the odds of pulling any particular champ is one in 60. The odds of pulling that one champ seven times in a row is (1/60)^7 = 3.5x10^13 or one in about 3 trillion. There are 2,035,800 ways to arrange those seven pulls within a set of 30; 30! / 23! 7!. That means the odds of this happening for a given champ is about 7.3x10^7 or about one in 1.38 million. However, there are 60 different champs this can happen for, which means the actual odds of this happening are 60 times higher than this, or about one in 22918. So assuming I've done the math correctly, that's about one in 23000.
How many people think that something that will only happen once out of every 23000 tries is something that is not happening at all, across all the players opening dual class crystals? Numbers like this are probably the most pernicious. When the odds are tens of thousands to one against, that's simultaneously very rare for any one person, but probably happening all the time across the entire game. So the odds of it happening to one person are low, but the odds of us hearing about it happening all the time are very high. This is probably the most non-intuitive situation for probability.
Dr. Zola
I don’t think I have any grounds to argue against someone’s assertion that it functions correctly. I assume it does, but because my individual experiences in game are anecdotal at best I really don’t have a credible way to rebut the presumption it does.
Dr. Zola
I'm pretty happy with the dual crystals atm lol. Not sure how many I've opened. I started out opening mutant/skill for Aegon and mystic/science for Doom. Went to the mutant/skill exclusively after a bit.
You can prove if something isn't random. You can't prove it is random. But you can prove that if it isn't random, the deviation from random must be smaller than some amount. As far as I can tell, RNG deviation if it exists has to be less than one part in two hundred, and probably less than one part in one thousand. And that's simply not something human beings can just see by watching crystals. The difference between sufficiently random and non-random would not be seeing something that should never happen, it would be seeing something happen slightly more often than it ought to. And humans simply aren't good at making that kind of judgments off the top of their heads.
I don't do this as much as I used to, because honestly I don't think it will come to anything and it takes too much work for the same negative result. But I haven't given up entirely. I'm focused on uncollected arena crystals now, looking to see if I can detect from mass data collection whether the RNG has a skew, whether the reward table selection algorithm has fencepost errors, whether there are weird round off anomalies, whether there is a correlation anomaly. I currently have 1300 individual openings. That's nowhere near enough to perform the kind of analysis I want to perform, but its a long term goal. I could have five times as many if I switched to standard arena crystals, but I think opening standard crystals every week one at a time would drive me insane.
Dr. Zola
There are millions? of players, so even with a quite low probability it‘s not unlikely to find a single one with that many dupes ... and somewhere out there might be a guy with 6x Ægons instead.
There, I've said my piece...