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How is Possible 5 Time Back Back Same champion from 6* feature

BrokenBroken Posts: 210 ★
edited March 2022 in General Discussion
i open 5 time 6* Feature crystal and get back to back taskmaster
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    SkyLord7000SkyLord7000 Posts: 3,999 ★★★★★
    Have a photo? Would love to see them stacked like that
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    TelbertTelbert Posts: 20 ★
    Back when they first added 5 star champions to the game, I pulled original spidey six times in a row, was really annoying, I just wanted a new five star champion but had only spidey for ages... if that can happen with basic crystals it's far more likely to happen with featured ones... simple logic tells you that lol
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    KnightNvrEndingKnightNvrEnding Posts: 446 ★★★
    Those back to backs happen more often than you’d think in featured lol it’s happened probably 4-5 times to me personally lol
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    BigBusterBigBuster Posts: 290 ★★★
    Balm82 said:

    Yea he’s the guy thats always on this forum telling everyone they are wrong.

    Computers cant do random, its a fact.

    what? You clearly don't have any knowledge in computer science if you're saying this. Sure, computers can't do random but pseudo RNG isn't a "predetermined pattern". Maybe read a few articles before you make this absurd statement. Read about something called the "Mersenne Twister".

    Also, think about this logically... Kabam doesn't benefit from constantly frustrating you. If the crystal algorithm was truly a controlled thing, then it would want to prevent you from quitting due to many bad pulls. Clearly, upon scrolling the forums, this isn't true.
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    BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 9,254 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    BitterSteel said:

    Any champion 5 times in a row from a featured crystal is about a 0.0000003% chance (1/24 ^ 4). To get specifically taskmaster it's 0.00000001% chance. (1/24 ^ 5)

    Pretty damn unlikely for one person, but with how many people open crystals it would be surprising if it didn't happen to someone.

    If the odds of something is 0.5, then you'd expect 2 events on average will get you one occurrence. So you'd expect about 330,000 events before someone got 5 of any champion in a row from featured crystals. And you'd expect about 7.96 million events before someone pulled specifically TaskMaster from 5 crystals 5 times.

    I don't know if these stats will help you feel better about 5 TaskMaster's @Broken (I rather fear your username just got a hell of a lot more appropriate), but at the very least you can now consider yourself one in a million 7.9 Million


    Before someone jumps in to correct that number, that's not the odds against five crystals all simultaneously being Taskmaster. That would be one in 24^5 = 7,962,624. But the average number of consecutive openings required to get five in a row is a completely different calculation.
    Ok I’m trying to make sure I have this right, so I worked out how many times before on average 5 crystals would be opened independently and they would all be taskmaster.

    But what you calculated is say if someone just kept opening crystals how many on average before they get 5 taskmasters in a row?
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,671 Guardian
    BitterSteel said:

    DNA3000 said:

    BitterSteel said:

    Any champion 5 times in a row from a featured crystal is about a 0.0000003% chance (1/24 ^ 4). To get specifically taskmaster it's 0.00000001% chance. (1/24 ^ 5)

    Pretty damn unlikely for one person, but with how many people open crystals it would be surprising if it didn't happen to someone.

    If the odds of something is 0.5, then you'd expect 2 events on average will get you one occurrence. So you'd expect about 330,000 events before someone got 5 of any champion in a row from featured crystals. And you'd expect about 7.96 million events before someone pulled specifically TaskMaster from 5 crystals 5 times.

    I don't know if these stats will help you feel better about 5 TaskMaster's @Broken (I rather fear your username just got a hell of a lot more appropriate), but at the very least you can now consider yourself one in a million 7.9 Million


    Before someone jumps in to correct that number, that's not the odds against five crystals all simultaneously being Taskmaster. That would be one in 24^5 = 7,962,624. But the average number of consecutive openings required to get five in a row is a completely different calculation.
    Ok I’m trying to make sure I have this right, so I worked out how many times before on average 5 crystals would be opened independently and they would all be taskmaster.

    But what you calculated is say if someone just kept opening crystals how many on average before they get 5 taskmasters in a row?
    Yep. You did the Yahtzee calculation: roll five, check if all Taskmaster, if not, reroll all five, check again.

    I did: roll one. Roll another, roll another, roll another, roll another - check if the last five are Taskmaster, if not, roll another - check again if the previous five are all Taskmaster, if not, repeat.

    Your number is smaller, but because each roll is five crystals, doing it your way you end up opening 5 x 7,962,624 = 39,813,120 crystals total (five at a time). My calculation looks at opening one crystal at a time and looking at the previous five, which means there are more ways to end up with five taskmasters.

    To be clear, your way, if you roll one Groot and four Taskmasters, that's a complete failure. You reroll all of them. My way, if you roll Groot and then four Taskmasters, that's a fail but you have a chance to get to five in a row with one more crystal and could theoretically hit it on crystal #6. The 24^5 calculation presumes this is not an option.
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    BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 9,254 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    BitterSteel said:

    DNA3000 said:

    BitterSteel said:

    Any champion 5 times in a row from a featured crystal is about a 0.0000003% chance (1/24 ^ 4). To get specifically taskmaster it's 0.00000001% chance. (1/24 ^ 5)

    Pretty damn unlikely for one person, but with how many people open crystals it would be surprising if it didn't happen to someone.

    If the odds of something is 0.5, then you'd expect 2 events on average will get you one occurrence. So you'd expect about 330,000 events before someone got 5 of any champion in a row from featured crystals. And you'd expect about 7.96 million events before someone pulled specifically TaskMaster from 5 crystals 5 times.

    I don't know if these stats will help you feel better about 5 TaskMaster's @Broken (I rather fear your username just got a hell of a lot more appropriate), but at the very least you can now consider yourself one in a million 7.9 Million


    Before someone jumps in to correct that number, that's not the odds against five crystals all simultaneously being Taskmaster. That would be one in 24^5 = 7,962,624. But the average number of consecutive openings required to get five in a row is a completely different calculation.
    Ok I’m trying to make sure I have this right, so I worked out how many times before on average 5 crystals would be opened independently and they would all be taskmaster.

    But what you calculated is say if someone just kept opening crystals how many on average before they get 5 taskmasters in a row?
    Yep. You did the Yahtzee calculation: roll five, check if all Taskmaster, if not, reroll all five, check again.

    I did: roll one. Roll another, roll another, roll another, roll another - check if the last five are Taskmaster, if not, roll another - check again if the previous five are all Taskmaster, if not, repeat.

    Your number is smaller, but because each roll is five crystals, doing it your way you end up opening 5 x 7,962,624 = 39,813,120 crystals total (five at a time). My calculation looks at opening one crystal at a time and looking at the previous five, which means there are more ways to end up with five taskmasters.

    To be clear, your way, if you roll one Groot and four Taskmasters, that's a complete failure. You reroll all of them. My way, if you roll Groot and then four Taskmasters, that's a fail but you have a chance to get to five in a row with one more crystal and could theoretically hit it on crystal #6. The 24^5 calculation presumes this is not an option.
    Yeah I got you! 7.98million events seems smaller than yours but that’s 7.98m lots of 5 crystals.
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    Malreck04Malreck04 Posts: 3,323 ★★★★★
    Balm82 said:

    Yea he’s the guy thats always on this forum telling everyone they are wrong.

    Computers cant do random, its a fact.

    Maybe not, but I challenge you to find a human who can tell the difference
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    Adi_tyaAdi_tya Posts: 94 ★
    DNA3000 said:

    BitterSteel said:

    Any champion 5 times in a row from a featured crystal is about a 0.0000003% chance (1/24 ^ 4). To get specifically taskmaster it's 0.00000001% chance. (1/24 ^ 5)

    Pretty damn unlikely for one person, but with how many people open crystals it would be surprising if it didn't happen to someone.

    If the odds of something is 0.5, then you'd expect 2 events on average will get you one occurrence. So you'd expect about 330,000 events before someone got 5 of any champion in a row from featured crystals. And you'd expect about 7.96 million events before someone pulled specifically TaskMaster from 5 crystals 5 times.

    I don't know if these stats will help you feel better about 5 TaskMaster's @Broken (I rather fear your username just got a hell of a lot more appropriate), but at the very least you can now consider yourself one in a million 7.9 Million

    If I've done the calculations correctly (or rather if I've fed them to Wolfram Alpha correctly, I'm not solving them by hand) you will get five Taskmasters in a row on average every 8,308,824 openings. But since players open variable amounts of crystals, its hard to say what the odds against ever seeing this is. My guess is that this sort of thing happens about once per year out of all players opening those types of featured crystals.

    Before someone jumps in to correct that number, that's not the odds against five crystals all simultaneously being Taskmaster. That would be one in 24^5 = 7,962,624. But the average number of consecutive openings required to get five in a row is a completely different calculation. It is solving this set of recursive equations:



    Assuming I set them up correctly. It has been a while since I've done these types of calculations. To determine the average number of openings given distributed openings among multiple players, you'd have to probably solve a generalized markovian, at which point I would probably write a python script to simulate the result a billion times and spit out an estimate.
    This reminds me why I flunked mathematics in HS
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    BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 9,254 ★★★★★
    Balm82 said:

    Did you know that you can actually get paid to sit and bash a keyboard all day in order to create a random set of characters? Or indeed move a mouse around a picture and let the binary code give you the random numbers.

    ...and this is proof that getting 5 taskmasters in a row is rigged? And Kabam decide all the champions you get?
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    MavRCK2MavRCK2 Posts: 13 ★
    BitterSteel said:

    Balm82 said:

    Hate to say it but there’s no such thing as RNG, games like this use Pseudo RNG, which is basically a predetermined pattern.

    To make it truly random you need a random source, like nature, wind blowing, waves crashing . . . Small companies dont pay for that kind of thing.

    You will get the champs you want when they allow you to.

    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2057138#Comment_2057138

    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2057143#Comment_2057143

    @Balm82 while I can see why you would get to that conclusion on hearing something like Pseudo RNG and assuming that must mean there's some flaw in it, it's simply not the case. These extremely informative comments by @DNA3000 explain the flaw in this kind of thinking
    Actually, there are companies that audit and check the pseudoRNG of systems such as casinos - without independent auditing one cannot say for certain Mcoc is working properly.
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    BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 9,254 ★★★★★
    Balm82 said:

    I never said rigged! But I can see why people would think that. Its more like a hidden mechanic. These days many champs can do the same thing, and players should understand what the champs they have can do.

    “ You will get the champs you want when they allow you to.”

    If Kabam allow you to get champions then what is that other than rigged? If that’s a turn of phrase then fair enough, but I’m sure you see the implication it causes.
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    MavRCK2MavRCK2 Posts: 13 ★
    edited March 2022
    DNA3000 said:

    Balm82 said:

    Yea he’s the guy thats always on this forum telling everyone they are wrong.

    Technically, I'm not always on the forums, and I don't tell everyone that they are wrong. Some people don't make enough sense to be wrong.
    Balm82 said:

    Computers cant do random, its a fact.

    And yet, every day they do random enough for everyone's purposes. Video game lootboxes are the easiest kind of random they do. The encrypted connection your browser uses to get to these forums, or your online banking account, or any other secure site requires that your computer generate random numbers for those connections to work. If the RNG they used was not statistically random, these connections would be trivial to break.

    "Computers can't do random"? In an academic debate, maybe. In the real world:

    RFC 4086: Best Practice Randomness Requirements for Security

    TestUO1: A successor to the Diehard statistical tests for software random number generators

    Sorry cognitive dissonance going off.

    It’s easy to sound smart when one is in a field uncommon to most and commonly spoken by one daily.

    1. Enough for everyone’s purposes - ? Ugh what? Everyone? Enough?
    2. Easiest kind of random - video game casinos are in this same category as per the papers I’ve read and are noted to be easily flawed
    3. the same code for rng in banking, browsing and mcoc is being used? monitored? verified?
    4. trivial to break - only this parameter ensures security?
    5. what of the papers that are not in the field of security, but in other fields of rng

    “The amount of energy necessary to refute **** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it” - and I don’t type quickly so many that many orders of magnitude.
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    CyborgNinja135CyborgNinja135 Posts: 1,109 ★★★★
    It's a sign dude. Rank up that Taskmaster
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