Consequentive crystal pulls are getting out of control
Glads
Member Posts: 428 ★★★
Hi all,
I am wondering if anyone has noticed this in the last 3 or so months. The probability of opening 2 crystals say 2 six star champs or whatever and landing the same champ.
Mathematically speaking it's so unlikely to land the same champ twice in a row is 0.00008%, you are more likely to get struck by lightning which has a probability of .0005%.
In my alliance someone was lucky enough to pull AA twice, someone pulled 3 tigra from 3 six star crystals (that is just ridiculous). And someone landed pyscho man twice from 2 crystals of the same type.
While some have been lucky others like me have pulled usless champs like black widow original, or psycho man.
The guy who pulled pyschoman is retiring after war, as there seems to be no opportunity to grow his roster.
It is just mathematically improbable, not impossible, but the maths aren't adding up, you need to take a serious look at the maths behind the crystal, as this is really highschool maths
I am wondering if anyone has noticed this in the last 3 or so months. The probability of opening 2 crystals say 2 six star champs or whatever and landing the same champ.
Mathematically speaking it's so unlikely to land the same champ twice in a row is 0.00008%, you are more likely to get struck by lightning which has a probability of .0005%.
In my alliance someone was lucky enough to pull AA twice, someone pulled 3 tigra from 3 six star crystals (that is just ridiculous). And someone landed pyscho man twice from 2 crystals of the same type.
While some have been lucky others like me have pulled usless champs like black widow original, or psycho man.
The guy who pulled pyschoman is retiring after war, as there seems to be no opportunity to grow his roster.
It is just mathematically improbable, not impossible, but the maths aren't adding up, you need to take a serious look at the maths behind the crystal, as this is really highschool maths
29
Comments
If you have 200 champs then
(1/200)*(1/200)= 0.000025
This leaves that worst case scenario that you would claim that same champ on the 199th crystal and 399th crystal
Go online or use a graphing calc and do a random number generator from 1 to 250, and see how often the same number appears twice in a row
You then use two examples of people pulling amazing champions back to back, and only one of a bad champ (psycho man), which doesn’t seem to fit with your next statement of “something fishy” going on. If your friend left the game because two pulls convinced him that he would never grow his roster, then he must not have understood that many people go 10-20 pulls before they get a champ that they really get excited about. Roster growth is based on a large number of champs and a long period of opening.
Third, it is probably more like middle school or elementary maths, but statistics takes some people all the way to college. I’m not sure why your sample size seems to be so small when you say that the “maths aren’t adding up”. In an RNG based game with millions (right?) of downloads, this could easily be happening to hundreds and thousands of summoners without being sketchy. You then say that you’ve been playing for five years but in all those times, have you never pulled the same champ back-to-back?
It's less probable to collect the same champ twice in a row than once. As consecutive draws you need to account for the probability of the last draw
Can you please answer me this if you do not believe the maths which you clearly don't.
In your time of playing mcoc, have you ever! Seen someone open two crystals and get the same champs twice, then open 3 crystals and get the same champ 3 times.
I doubt that you have...
If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling any 6* twice in a row is 1/250. That's not my opinion, that's just a fact.
If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling any 6* once in a row is 250/250, aka 100%.
If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling a specific 6* (say corvus) in your next crystal is 1/250.
If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling a specific 6* (say corvus) in your next 2 crystals is (1/250)^2.
Those are all facts, you can accept it or not, won't change it
This has been discussed already. And @DNA3000 has weighed in on it. I suggest reading the entire thread.
I pulled and duped my Nebula 5* just this month back to back.
I have pulled and duped twice my Ægon 3* out of the same batch.
I have pulled and duped my NF 5* out of the same batch and pulled him 4 more times each of those being back to back or out of the same batch
The odds of pulling them and then subsequently duping them in the very next crystal is the same as pulling them once.
I am wasting my time explaining this.
But @danielmath have you opened 2 crystals and got the same champ from both 2 crystals, or 3 crystals and get the same from those 3 crystals
Odds of complaining after pulling two Hercs in a row: 1%
Odds of complaining after pulling two Cyclops in a row: 99%
http://equiseq.com/learn_probability.php