Consequentive crystal pulls are getting out of control

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  • the_eradicatorthe_eradicator Member Posts: 390 ★★★
    Okay I think I have someway to clear this up.
    What you are saying , @Glads is =
    1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004.
    There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case.
    The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1.
    It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP.
    Example -
    Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads

    But what we need is ----
    Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP
    = 1 * 1/250 = 0.004

    What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row.
    Here can also look for sample space of that -
    Example -
    DOOM , DOOM
    STRYFE, STRYFE
    ICEMAN, ICEMAN
    etc....
    These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of
    250x250 total combinations = 62,500
    So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004

    So 2 ways to look at this both correct.
  • GladsGlads Member Posts: 428 ★★★


    I guess, I Win.

    As I said something strange
  • EgretM4EgretM4 Member Posts: 178 ★★
    The problem is your arguing two different things.
    1st is a overall probabilistic assessment of multiple independent events happening over time,like what is the chance of heads landing in a million flips. That should of course converge toward 50% if the coin and flips are fair. This one is the argument for the inverse multiplied example 1/250^2
    2nd is what is the independent probability alone of a single coin flip. Or to put it in the framework of the first argument what is the probability of the next coin flip being heads in a series of length 1. This is the argument that 1/250 being the answer.

    So your both right, or both wrong depending on if which thought process your approaching the question.
  • GladsGlads Member Posts: 428 ★★★

    Okay I think I have someway to clear this up.
    What you are saying , @Glads is =
    1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004.
    There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case.
    The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1.
    It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP.
    Example -
    Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads

    But what we need is ----
    Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP
    = 1 * 1/250 = 0.004

    What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row.
    Here can also look for sample space of that -
    Example -
    DOOM , DOOM
    STRYFE, STRYFE
    ICEMAN, ICEMAN
    etc....
    These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of
    250x250 total combinations = 62,500
    So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004

    So 2 ways to look at this both correct.

    Just because you have spent time to logically show your maths.
    I do question when you get a probability of one.
    Each crystal carries 1/250 chances. If I get a good champ or a bad champ that's not a probability of 1, it's 1/250 as there are 250 options u get one.
    Then on the second crystal you have another 250 options again you only get 1. Therefore the chance that this happen is the number I have been saying.
  • GladsGlads Member Posts: 428 ★★★
    The only time this changes is when it's a nexus crystal then 3/250 .
    To have probability of 1 which you are referring to you would need 250 options.
    I hope th8s explains my reasoning
  • the_eradicatorthe_eradicator Member Posts: 390 ★★★
    Glads said:


    I guess, I Win.

    As I said something strange
    Do you know how many times a Random number generator can generate the same number again in a row ? The RNG they use in software are Pseudo RNG algorithms. Nothing can be truly random. They tend to generate the same numbers in a row more often than they should, the outcome is more likely to happen that it should. Strange but that's how it is.
  • the_eradicatorthe_eradicator Member Posts: 390 ★★★
    Glads said:

    Okay I think I have someway to clear this up.
    What you are saying , @Glads is =
    1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004.
    There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case.
    The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1.
    It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP.
    Example -
    Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads

    But what we need is ----
    Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP
    = 1 * 1/250 = 0.004

    What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row.
    Here can also look for sample space of that -
    Example -
    DOOM , DOOM
    STRYFE, STRYFE
    ICEMAN, ICEMAN
    etc....
    These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of
    250x250 total combinations = 62,500
    So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004

    So 2 ways to look at this both correct.

    Just because you have spent time to logically show your maths.
    I do question when you get a probability of one.
    Each crystal carries 1/250 chances. If I get a good champ or a bad champ that's not a probability of 1, it's 1/250 as there are 250 options u get one.
    Then on the second crystal you have another 250 options again you only get 1. Therefore the chance that this happen is the number I have been saying.
    I understand your fallacy here.
    According to you probability of pulling the same champ in a row must be higher than pulling just one champ.
    In a way you are right but you are talking about pulling a PARTICULAR CHAMP, like doom then yes you are right it's 0.004 * 0.004.
    If you pull a good champ or a bad champ, which means you were not targeting anything , right ?
    If you are not targeting anything there is no desired outcome so it's probability is 1 here, which means you are getting atleast 1 6* or 5* or whatever champ it is. You are guaranteed to get A champ but it can be any champ so it's 250/250.
    You are looking at this the wrong way. The formula is = desired outcomes/ total outcomes.
    Here your desired outcomes is 250.
  • GladsGlads Member Posts: 428 ★★★

    Glads said:


    I guess, I Win.

    As I said something strange
    Do you know how many times a Random number generator can generate the same number again in a row ? The RNG they use in software are Pseudo RNG algorithms. Nothing can be truly random. They tend to generate the same numbers in a row more often than they should, the outcome is more likely to happen that it should. Strange but that's how it is.
    Well this changes the entire conversation it's no based on probabilities, and champs can be biased which is concerning, based on this randomisation factor.
    This leads to far more questions
  • Deder80Deder80 Member Posts: 711 ★★★
    Glads said:

    Hi all,
    I am wondering if anyone has noticed this in the last 3 or so months. The probability of opening 2 crystals say 2 six star champs or whatever and landing the same champ.
    Mathematically speaking it's so unlikely to land the same champ twice in a row is 0.00008%, you are more likely to get struck by lightning which has a probability of .0005%.
    In my alliance someone was lucky enough to pull AA twice, someone pulled 3 tigra from 3 six star crystals (that is just ridiculous). And someone landed pyscho man twice from 2 crystals of the same type.
    While some have been lucky others like me have pulled usless champs like black widow original, or psycho man.
    The guy who pulled pyschoman is retiring after war, as there seems to be no opportunity to grow his roster.
    It is just mathematically improbable, not impossible, but the maths aren't adding up, you need to take a serious look at the maths behind the crystal, as this is really highschool maths

    I opened 2 5* featured crystals and got Jane Frost both time. When looking at when I clicked on the crystals she wasn’t even a champs viewable line spinning. Funny part is when I click on a 3 * that I was in the viewable line I get one of those champs. Both times I got Jane there were 3 totally different champs in the spinning view when I clicked it. Those crystals are pre-loaded if you ask me. I got the worse champ 2 times in a one week. Never has that happen before. I mean I dupe champs a lot but it’s not the in the same week. I might dupe a champs once a month out of my 5* or 6*’s.
  • GiuliameijGiuliameij Member Posts: 1,849 ★★★★
    Glads said:

    I thought there was about 300 champs in the pool that what my calculations are based on.
    If you have 200 champs then
    (1/200)*(1/200)= 0.000025
    This leaves that worst case scenario that you would claim that same champ on the 199th crystal and 399th crystal

    These are not correct calculations. The first pull does not matter. And thus does not have to be taken into consideration. The double pull comes after the first pull. It does not matter who the first champ is. It only matters who the second champ is. So 1/~200. So 0,005. Still not likely. But a LOT more likely.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 21,988 ★★★★★
    Glads said:

    Glads said:


    But @danielmath have you opened 2 crystals and got the same champ from both 2 crystals, or 3 crystals and get the same from those 3 crystals

    You mean like this?

    As I said something is very wrong when this is happening so frequently... And it's only been happening recently
    Now that we all agree my thinking is right from the proof I have provided...
    Why is this happening so frequently something is wrong
    Can you describe what "so frequently" means? How often is it happening? On what scale? What's your sample size?
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  • SquirrelguySquirrelguy Member Posts: 2,653 ★★★★★


    Couldn’t not post this. #Illuminaticonfirmed
  • ForwardForward Member Posts: 115 ★★

    Glads said:

    Glads said:

    @danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events

    Because you are looking at ONLY pulling one exact champ twice, as opposed to ANY champ twice.
    If you did that then the probability is the same as landing a single champ it doesn't add up sorry you are wrong
    Lol no i’m not wrong. The odds of pulling corvus is identical to the odds of pulling ANY 2 champs back to back
    People don't seem to understand math. This is correct. The probably of pulling any champ is 1/200 or whatever the total champs. The probably of pulling a specific champ is 1/200. The odds of pulling the same champ after just pulling them is still 1/200.

    The odds of pulling 2 specific champs that you want is 1/40000 or about .0025%.

    But the odds of pulling 2 in a row like they are complaining about is .5%.
  • Wicket329Wicket329 Member Posts: 3,363 ★★★★★
    Forward said:

    Glads said:

    Glads said:

    @danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events

    Because you are looking at ONLY pulling one exact champ twice, as opposed to ANY champ twice.
    If you did that then the probability is the same as landing a single champ it doesn't add up sorry you are wrong
    Lol no i’m not wrong. The odds of pulling corvus is identical to the odds of pulling ANY 2 champs back to back
    People don't seem to understand math. This is correct. The probably of pulling any champ is 1/200 or whatever the total champs. The probably of pulling a specific champ is 1/200. The odds of pulling the same champ after just pulling them is still 1/200.

    The odds of pulling 2 specific champs that you want is 1/40000 or about .0025%.

    But the odds of pulling 2 in a row like they are complaining about is .5%.
    .5% being odds high enough to gamble for cavs on for a lot of people.
  • ForwardForward Member Posts: 115 ★★
    Also, help me out, what does consequentive means? Is that supposed to be consecutive or consequential?
  • Wicket329Wicket329 Member Posts: 3,363 ★★★★★
    Forward said:

    Also, help me out, what does consequentive means? Is that supposed to be consecutive or consequential?

    Definitely meant to say consecutive. It was a really bold move for OP to bring up how educated they are when coupled with bad math and incorrect word choice, but I get the vibe English may not be their first language so I didn’t want to dwell on it.
  • Forgotten2Forgotten2 Member Posts: 179 ★★
    Speak for yourself I've been on a roll
  • The_ChumpThe_Chump Member Posts: 141 ★★
    edited March 2022
    Glads said:

    Well I am a university educated and did a fair bit of advanced maths and statistics in years 1 and 2. Your only accounting for the fact it's happened once.
    It's less probable to collect the same champ twice in a row than once. As consecutive draws you need to account for the probability of the last draw

    Imma help you here. You have two boxes, each with tickets numbered 1-250. You pull 110 out of the first box. What are the chances of you pulling ticket 110 out of the second box?

    Each ticket represents a champ and each box a crystal. You're welcome 😉

    If you still don't get it, then google dice rolls, as its probablymore commonly explained. Rolling the same number on 2 dice is a 1/6 chance. Rolling 2 1s specifically is a 1/36 chance (1/6 x 1/6). In this example, getting any champ twice is a 1/250 chance, while getting a specific champ, like getting double 1s is 1/x^2 or 1/250 x 1/250 or 1/62500.
  • MagrailothosMagrailothos Member Posts: 5,953 ★★★★★
    Glads said:

    Kingnaes said:

    I seriously cant believe you're "university educated"...

    Glads said:

    Glads said:

    Glads said:

    Firstly probability is not percentage, it's the likelihood that event will happen in that pool 1 chance from 250 to score champ A, assuming each champ in thise crystal pools have no greater or lesser chance than others.
    So assuming that fact is correct the chance you will have like the stat's website says and like I have been saying is
    1/250= .004
    0.004x .004 = 0.000016 chance from 2 crystals
    Just the same thinking as coin
    2 Heads from 2 throws, is 0.25
    As each toss has a 0.5 chance of a head.

    Your 0.000016 is the chance of pulling specifically corvus corvus. What about doom doom? And all other champs? You would need to add your # 250 times
    Remember this is from 2 crystals only, the most crystals the more chance, assuming each character has the same weight in the crystal, it is the same 0.000016 chance to score doom consecutive or corvus or kamila khan
    Now you’re talking about a totally different conspiracy. If you have 2 unopened 6* crystal and pop them, theres a 1/250 chance you will get the same champ in both
    It's the same as a coin toss, it's not that hard.
    First crystal 1/250
    Second crystal 1/250
    For it to happen like that consequently is 0.000016
    Like the hh in a coin toss
    1/2 * 1/2= 0.25
    You're ONLY looking at ONE specific case of HH and not seeing TT which is also "pulling" the same consecutively...

    HH
    HT
    TH
    TT ....
    Total 4 possibilities and HALF are consecutive outcomes. Same of pulling champs out of 2 crystals.
    Each ONE is 1/250 x 1/250 but there are 250 champs.

    Herc Herc
    DOOM doom
    Khan Khan
    Etc etc.

    Add it up its 250 x ( 1/ 250² ) which is 1/250.

    Seriously it's not hard, you are overthinking it and refuse to listen.

    I disagree and you have overlooked an important variable, you pull one champ once 1/250 then the second crystal you pop is 1/250. You multiple those to get your probability of 0.000016...
    You're making a common error: The place you're going wrong is the odds you're quoting for the first champion.

    That's because if your concern is 'people pull the same champion back to back, the odds for that must be crazy', then it doesn't matter who they pull first: any champion will do - so the odds of pulling them is 1 in 1: you're going to get someone from that crystal*.

    The chance to pull any champion back to back is therefore 1 X 1/250

    The second stage is where probability comes into it: Having defined your champion, the odds of pulling that particular champion again are 1/250.

    ----

    * If you want to pre-define the champion, then your maths is perfect: If you have two crystals and you're hoping to pull and Awaken Corvus in particular, then the odds of pulling Corvus back to back from two crystals is 1/250 X 1/250.

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