Potential Delay to v44.1 Launch
We are currently working through some issues that may affect the release window of v44.1. This means that the update may not release on Monday as it usually does. We are working to resolve the issue holding us up as quickly as possible, but will keep you all updated, especially if the delay results in any changes to the content release schedule.
We are currently working through some issues that may affect the release window of v44.1. This means that the update may not release on Monday as it usually does. We are working to resolve the issue holding us up as quickly as possible, but will keep you all updated, especially if the delay results in any changes to the content release schedule.
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When you guys open your door do you spin or pop it? I half open, then shut it, then open again and twist the doorknob a few times and then open it. It definitely gets me better odds, even if people say it makes no difference."
Well, obviously you want to pick after, right? So your intuition is telling you that Monty opening those boxes gives you an advantage. But if the odds are 50% whether you pick before he opens or after he opens, there's no advantage. So your odds of picking the right box *before* he opens the other boxes must be low, and stay low no matter what he does after you pick.
When Monty opens boxes, he's giving you information. He's telling you where the prize is not. That's very valuable information, but that information is only useful if you know it before you pick. Knowing it after you pick cannot help you. Switching choices in effect is picking after he opens. Switching boxes *before* he opens offers no advantage. Your first pick is just as likely to be the right one as your second pick. But switching *after* he opens offers a huge advantage, because now you *know* where the prize is definitely not. The odds of you picking one of those other 98 boxes incorrectly is zero, because of course you aren't going to pick those empty boxes.
Let's simplify a bit. Let's assume the crystal contains one of 250 options, equally likely. How many crystals do you have to open before you get three in a row of identical choices? For the honors class, let's simplify even further. Suppose we're flipping a coin. How many flips before we get three heads in a row (always assuming a 50/50 coin).
The naïve calculation would say: the odds of three coins being all heads is one in eight. So the average number of flips to get three heads in a row is about 24 = three flips times eight attempts.
This number is off by about a factor of two. If someone in the honors class gets this one right, they get an official DNA No Prize, because when I learned this one back in high school it was a revelation (it was a math competition, by the way).
Hint: math students are first introduced to the guiding principle for solving this problem when they learn how to sum infinite convergent series, or else they learn it directly when they take an advanced probability class.
The use of the non-existent word “consequentive” jars my eyes to the point of nausea every time I see it.
Dr. Zola
Also, I meant that I didn't want to spoil the math for others who wanted to try DNA's problem above about how many openings/coin flips you'd need to get same result 3 times. That's not really the same as calculating the odds of a dupe.
In other words, while there's no way to prove that every champion has *exactly* the same chance to drop, it is possible to demonstrate that a difference big enough for a human being to just spot by opening tens or hundreds of crystals cannot evade statistical testing, and thus cannot exist.
My comment about rarer champs was hearsay as much as anything. I thought I'd read it somewhere on the forums. There is still the fact that not all champs are available on the basic crystal and some such as Kang, Thanos and Weapon x aren't available in crystals at all. So i guess that also needs to be taken into account.