probability calculation in the side event seems to be broken
Saru2244 Posts: 175 ★
So in my opinion something is wrong with the probability calculation in the side event. I've now done 5 runs on Legendary and got the T4 5 times. If this is intentional, I wonder why there must be 7 paths? Anyone else have this problem?
This may help.
If that specific rift path is 15%, why did you calculate using 14% (were you just just taking 1/7 for # of rifts ? Each rift has different probability, although that one is actually very close to that 1/7th value)
And even so, doesn’t come out to 5488. And it also has one less 0 between decimal and number. As well as since visually a .01 value already looks bad (it is such a fractional value) but really corresponds to 1% so when displaying a value and implying it as a percent you need to chop another 2 zeroes off of it.
And lastly, assuming the complaint is SAME RIFT (aka, ANY RIFT) 5 times, then really you should take 1 of the multipliers out of the equation. Since once you establish the baseline (first roll of the dice), then it is only the next 4 that would have factored into them being the same as the first.
So odds of getting same rift 5 times in a row for a rift that is of 15% odds is really 0.05% (0.050625%). So for every 2000 players, someone will encounter that.