probability calculation in the side event seems to be broken

Saru2244Saru2244 Member Posts: 183 ★
in General Discussion
So in my opinion something is wrong with the probability calculation in the side event. I've now done 5 runs on Legendary and got the T4 5 times. If this is intentional, I wonder why there must be 7 paths? Anyone else have this problem?

Comments

  • ShiroiharaShiroihara Member Posts: 1,092 ★★★★
    Well, that does seem improbable. According to the forum post, that path has a 15% chance.
  • KyriosRaisKyriosRais Member Posts: 65 ★
    i run 5 times, t5cc path 5 times in a row. i checked the chance, it's 10%. lol. i always hate RNG rewards
  • Lvernon15Lvernon15 Member Posts: 11,598 ★★★★★
    If you roll a die and get 1 4/5 times is that die broken? No
  • Saru2244Saru2244 Member Posts: 183 ★
    DrZola said:

    https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

    This may help.

    Dr. Zola

    It's true, I'm not a math genius. But when I read Zola's page, the probability of getting the same path 5 times in a row with 7 paths is 0.14X 0.14 X 0.14 X 0.14 X 0.14 = 0.000005488 That's not true now Exactly, because you would now have to weight the individual paths slightly differently, but even if there was "only" a chance of 0.00054, the probability that something in the game is wrong is much, much higher than it really is .
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 13,259 Guardian
    Saru2244 said:


    It's true, I'm not a math genius. But when I read Zola's page, the probability of getting the same path 5 times in a row with 7 paths is 0.14X 0.14 X 0.14 X 0.14 X 0.14 = 0.000005488 That's not true now Exactly, because you would now have to weight the individual paths slightly differently, but even if there was "only" a chance of 0.00054, the probability that something in the game is wrong is much, much higher than it really is .

    .
    If that specific rift path is 15%, why did you calculate using 14% (were you just just taking 1/7 for # of rifts ? Each rift has different probability, although that one is actually very close to that 1/7th value)

    And even so, doesn’t come out to 5488. And it also has one less 0 between decimal and number. As well as since visually a .01 value already looks bad (it is such a fractional value) but really corresponds to 1% so when displaying a value and implying it as a percent you need to chop another 2 zeroes off of it.

    And lastly, assuming the complaint is SAME RIFT (aka, ANY RIFT) 5 times, then really you should take 1 of the multipliers out of the equation. Since once you establish the baseline (first roll of the dice), then it is only the next 4 that would have factored into them being the same as the first.

    So odds of getting same rift 5 times in a row for a rift that is of 15% odds is really 0.05% (0.050625%). So for every 2000 players, someone will encounter that.
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