Featured 6* crystal - Scorpion probability

OMGJimbo

Should Kabam publish the probability of pulling each champ from the featured 6* crystals? Equal probability was only “implied” from previous posts but never published in-game. This month’s debacle with how difficult it is to pull scorpion should serve as a wake-up call. A combined 70 featured 6* crystals were opened in our alliance - not one Scorpion. Same results have been reported everywhere on YouTube - from KT1 to Prof Hoff’s channel. This smells like another cash grab scheme. Thoughts? Kabam white knights need not reply.

TheBair123

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

OMGJimbo

TheBair123 said:

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

Sure. Where did you find the 1/24 figure?

Vendemiaire

You're suffering from Selection Bias.

I know someone who pulled him in under 20 crystals. He didn't pull Omega Sentinel though.

Another alliancemate pulled him in just one crystal so...

OMGJimbo

Vendemiaire said:

You're suffering from Selection Bias.

I know someone who pulled him in under 20 crystals. He didn't pull Omega Sentinel though.

Another alliancemate pulled him in just one crystal so...

I’m sure you’re familiar with Pearson's chi-squared test? And to have what you called the selection bias, we need to know the exact probability of each champ being drawn from the 24 selections. Can anyone point me to that data in the MCOC app? Even if that exists - and it doesn’t - we need to “assume” Kabam honors that probability because there is no way of knowing unless they publish the result and have it audited.

TheBair123

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

Sure. Where did you find the 1/24 figure?

There are 24 champions in the pool, and Scorpion is one of them. There is a 1/24 or a 4.16% chance

MrSakuragi

TheBair123 said:

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

Sure. Where did you find the 1/24 figure?

There are 24 champions in the pool, and Scorpion is one of them. There is a 1/24 or a 4.16% chance

Only if assuming equal odds for each champion. Nothing has been explicitly stated if that is or is not the case with these crystals.

Mauled

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

OMGJimbo

TheBair123 said:

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

Sure. Where did you find the 1/24 figure?

There are 24 champions in the pool, and Scorpion is one of them. There is a 1/24 or a 4.16% chance

That is your assumption. Never explicitly stated by Kabam anywhere.

OMGJimbo

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

Yes, this again because Kabam never addressed it. I’ve been playing from the first year. This came up time and again but has never been addressed. When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice. Unless you can point out where Kabam tells us there is an equal odd of drawing each champ, you can’t make any argument about this being fair. So I’m waiting for you to enlighten me with that information.

Searmenis

OMGJimbo said:

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

Yes, this again because Kabam never addressed it. I’ve been playing from the first year. This came up time and again but has never been addressed. When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice. Unless you can point out where Kabam tells us there is an equal odd of drawing each champ, you can’t make any argument about this being fair. So I’m waiting for you to enlighten me with that information.

There's nothing to adress, that's why they haven't. There's a crystal containing 24 champs, with equal drop rates. 1/24 each, or 4. something % like someone said already. That's what s advertised. Even if half the player base never pulls a certain champ out of it in let s say, 20 tries per player, the crystal status presented, will remain the same, and the answer will be, RNG. Crazy probability, maybe, but even if there s shenanigans behind it (I strongly doubt this myself), we will never know it.

OMGJimbo

Searmenis said:

OMGJimbo said:

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

Yes, this again because Kabam never addressed it. I’ve been playing from the first year. This came up time and again but has never been addressed. When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice. Unless you can point out where Kabam tells us there is an equal odd of drawing each champ, you can’t make any argument about this being fair. So I’m waiting for you to enlighten me with that information.

There's nothing to adress, that's why they haven't. There's a crystal containing 24 champs, with equal drop rates. 1/24 each, or 4. something % like someone said already. That's what s advertised. Even if half the player base never pulls a certain champ out of it in let s say, 20 tries per player, the crystal status presented, will remain the same, and the answer will be, RNG. Crazy probability, maybe, but even if there s shenanigans behind it (I strongly doubt this myself), we will never know it.

1 in 24 odd as advertised where?

pseudosane

OMGJimbo said:

Searmenis said:

OMGJimbo said:

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

Yes, this again because Kabam never addressed it. I’ve been playing from the first year. This came up time and again but has never been addressed. When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice. Unless you can point out where Kabam tells us there is an equal odd of drawing each champ, you can’t make any argument about this being fair. So I’m waiting for you to enlighten me with that information.

There's nothing to adress, that's why they haven't. There's a crystal containing 24 champs, with equal drop rates. 1/24 each, or 4. something % like someone said already. That's what s advertised. Even if half the player base never pulls a certain champ out of it in let s say, 20 tries per player, the crystal status presented, will remain the same, and the answer will be, RNG. Crazy probability, maybe, but even if there s shenanigans behind it (I strongly doubt this myself), we will never know it.

1 in 24 odd as advertised where?

Unless stated otherwise, it is equal droprates.

Demonzfyre

MrSakuragi said:

TheBair123 said:

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

Sure. Where did you find the 1/24 figure?

There are 24 champions in the pool, and Scorpion is one of them. There is a 1/24 or a 4.16% chance

Only if assuming equal odds for each champion. Nothing has been explicitly stated if that is or is not the case with these crystals.

Mods have stated over and over there is equal chance. There has been nothing that has disproved that so far. Confirmation bias does not count.

Typhoon

I think we should turn the Kabam White Knight Night Light on.

Demonzfyre

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

Sure. Where did you find the 1/24 figure?

There are 24 champions in the pool, and Scorpion is one of them. There is a 1/24 or a 4.16% chance

That is your assumption. Never explicitly stated by Kabam anywhere.

Actually yes it has. Miike has said it himself so many times over the years.

Typhoon

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

OMGJimbo said:

TheBair123 said:

1/24 chance of pulling a scorpion. and i wouldn't refer to some people as "Kabam white knights." We like to call ourselves the "Kabam Knights of the Night."

Sure. Where did you find the 1/24 figure?

There are 24 champions in the pool, and Scorpion is one of them. There is a 1/24 or a 4.16% chance

That is your assumption. Never explicitly stated by Kabam anywhere.

Actually yes it has. Miike has said it himself so many times over the years.

It's true. I seent it.

Demonzfyre

OMGJimbo said:

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

Yes, this again because Kabam never addressed it. I’ve been playing from the first year. This came up time and again but has never been addressed. When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice. Unless you can point out where Kabam tells us there is an equal odd of drawing each champ, you can’t make any argument about this being fair. So I’m waiting for you to enlighten me with that information.

Have you been present for every single crystal opening for every single player? Or is this sample size coming from the forums where generally people post about bad pulls more than good ones.

But each crystal opened is independent of any other pull. No pull is combined with any other.

OMGJimbo

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

OMGJimbo

pseudosane said:

OMGJimbo said:

Searmenis said:

OMGJimbo said:

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

Yes, this again because Kabam never addressed it. I’ve been playing from the first year. This came up time and again but has never been addressed. When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice. Unless you can point out where Kabam tells us there is an equal odd of drawing each champ, you can’t make any argument about this being fair. So I’m waiting for you to enlighten me with that information.

There's nothing to adress, that's why they haven't. There's a crystal containing 24 champs, with equal drop rates. 1/24 each, or 4. something % like someone said already. That's what s advertised. Even if half the player base never pulls a certain champ out of it in let s say, 20 tries per player, the crystal status presented, will remain the same, and the answer will be, RNG. Crazy probability, maybe, but even if there s shenanigans behind it (I strongly doubt this myself), we will never know it.

1 in 24 odd as advertised where?

Unless stated otherwise, it is equal droprates.

Says who and where?

Mysterio

Okay you got me, I used my ilussions to hide the odds of you pulling a 6* Scorpion from the crystal. The one where you get one out of 24 possible characters. Okay now be quick I will remove the ilussions and omg I can already see the numbers appear!!!

Is that? NO WAY (Home)! I can't believe it. The actual numbers are.......1 out of 24????
Who would ever guess this?

OMGJimbo

Mysterio said:

Okay you got me, I used my ilussions to hide the odds of you pulling a 6* Scorpion from the crystal. The one where you get one out of 24 possible characters. Okay now be quick I will remove the ilussions and omg I can already see the numbers appear!!!

Is that? NO WAY (Home)! I can't believe it. The actual numbers are.......1 out of 24????
Who would ever guess this?

One out of 24 characters doesn’t mean equal odd. If the algorithm, which is manually designed, determine that there should be a 10% chance of getting Rhino and the other 23 characters will share the remaining 90%, the other character will have a 3.91% odd to be opened. Just an example. You’re still going to get one out of 24 characters they advertise - just not at the equal odd that users assume because it has never been explicitly and permanently listed. You have a chance to get one out of the four star-rating in the Cav crystals - 3/4/5/6. How do you know the odd of getting each one? By reading the drop rate that Kabam publishes. Got it?

Demonzfyre

OMGJimbo said:

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

Cav crystals are available to buy. You can't buy featured crystals outright like Cavs. They aren't required to show the drop rates. Cav crystals are available for money and they are required to show the drop rates.

Doesn't matter if they show them or don't show them. You've been told several times what the odds are. You're going to believe what you want too regardless of facts. There isn't anything that will make you think different. I bet you believe in the patent conspiracy as well.

OMGJimbo

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

Cav crystals are available to buy. You can't buy featured crystals outright like Cavs. They aren't required to show the drop rates. Cav crystals are available for money and they are required to show the drop rates.

Doesn't matter if they show them or don't show them. You've been told several times what the odds are. You're going to believe what you want too regardless of facts. There isn't anything that will make you think different. I bet you believe in the patent conspiracy as well.

That is not accurate either because now that six-star shards are for sale everyday in the daily. It became a consistent, regular sales pattern, and that makes featured crystals part of the purchasing scheme. Kabam finally crossed that threshold, which means they need to display the drop rate. I hope you don’t just say something is “fact” without hard data. As low as the bar is, the very least they can do is to publish the drop rate. Can you think of a reason why they’re not doing that? Or are you just going to keep saying “you were told several times?” No idea what that patent conspiracy you referred to is by the way.

Demonzfyre

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

Cav crystals are available to buy. You can't buy featured crystals outright like Cavs. They aren't required to show the drop rates. Cav crystals are available for money and they are required to show the drop rates.

Doesn't matter if they show them or don't show them. You've been told several times what the odds are. You're going to believe what you want too regardless of facts. There isn't anything that will make you think different. I bet you believe in the patent conspiracy as well.

That is not accurate either because now that six-star shards are for sale everyday in the daily. It became a consistent, regular sales pattern, and that makes featured crystals part of the purchasing scheme. Kabam finally crossed that threshold, which means they need to display the drop rate. I hope you don’t just say something is “fact” without hard data. As low as the bar is, the very least they can do is to publish the drop rate. Can you think of a reason why they’re not doing that? Or are you just going to keep saying “you were told several times?” No idea what that patent conspiracy you referred to is by the way.

6* shards aren't crystals. They have no drop rates and they don't count towards the rules for look boxes.

They don't because they aren't required to. They are following the law for loot boxes exactly how they're supposed to.

OMGJimbo

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

Cav crystals are available to buy. You can't buy featured crystals outright like Cavs. They aren't required to show the drop rates. Cav crystals are available for money and they are required to show the drop rates.

Doesn't matter if they show them or don't show them. You've been told several times what the odds are. You're going to believe what you want too regardless of facts. There isn't anything that will make you think different. I bet you believe in the patent conspiracy as well.

That is not accurate either because now that six-star shards are for sale everyday in the daily. It became a consistent, regular sales pattern, and that makes featured crystals part of the purchasing scheme. Kabam finally crossed that threshold, which means they need to display the drop rate. I hope you don’t just say something is “fact” without hard data. As low as the bar is, the very least they can do is to publish the drop rate. Can you think of a reason why they’re not doing that? Or are you just going to keep saying “you were told several times?” No idea what that patent conspiracy you referred to is by the way.

6* shards aren't crystals. They have no drop rates and they don't count towards the rules for look boxes.

They don't because they aren't required to. They are following the law for loot boxes exactly how they're supposed to.

You’re correct: 6* shards got no drop rate, but the only channel to redeem such purchase is through crystals. So what is your reason of Kabam not publishing the drop rate for featured crystals again EVEN if they’re not required as you’ve claimed? (100% 6* champ is not a drop rate) “They don’t because they aren’t required to?” That’s your argument?

Demonzfyre

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

Cav crystals are available to buy. You can't buy featured crystals outright like Cavs. They aren't required to show the drop rates. Cav crystals are available for money and they are required to show the drop rates.

Doesn't matter if they show them or don't show them. You've been told several times what the odds are. You're going to believe what you want too regardless of facts. There isn't anything that will make you think different. I bet you believe in the patent conspiracy as well.

That is not accurate either because now that six-star shards are for sale everyday in the daily. It became a consistent, regular sales pattern, and that makes featured crystals part of the purchasing scheme. Kabam finally crossed that threshold, which means they need to display the drop rate. I hope you don’t just say something is “fact” without hard data. As low as the bar is, the very least they can do is to publish the drop rate. Can you think of a reason why they’re not doing that? Or are you just going to keep saying “you were told several times?” No idea what that patent conspiracy you referred to is by the way.

6* shards aren't crystals. They have no drop rates and they don't count towards the rules for look boxes.

They don't because they aren't required to. They are following the law for loot boxes exactly how they're supposed to.

You’re correct: 6* shards got no drop rate, but the only channel to redeem such purchase is through crystals. So what is your reason of Kabam not publishing the drop rate for featured crystals again EVEN if they’re not required as you’ve claimed? (100% 6* champ is not a drop rate) “They don’t because they aren’t required to?” That’s your argument?

It's like talking to a brick wall. You're reading the comments but not understanding a single one of them. Each crystal pull is independent of another. You can open 10 featured and they are all 1/24 chance of getting one of the champs in the crystal pool. There is no algorithm. I've opened 4 featured 6*'s and scorpion was one of my pulls.

The drop rate for a 6* basic or a 6* featured is 100%. You're looking for them to publish the odds of any of the the champs in the crystal. Even the ones with drop rates don't tell you that, they just tell you the chances of pulling a certain rarity.

They aren't required to tell you the probability of other than they've stated in the 6* featured it's 1/24 and in the basic it's 1/2##. There's nothing else to know. Again, even if they told you, your confirmation bias won't let you believe it's true. You already stated there was a algorithm they implement manually. You're tinfoil is on so tight, you can't see straight.

OMGJimbo

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

Cav crystals are available to buy. You can't buy featured crystals outright like Cavs. They aren't required to show the drop rates. Cav crystals are available for money and they are required to show the drop rates.

Doesn't matter if they show them or don't show them. You've been told several times what the odds are. You're going to believe what you want too regardless of facts. There isn't anything that will make you think different. I bet you believe in the patent conspiracy as well.

That is not accurate either because now that six-star shards are for sale everyday in the daily. It became a consistent, regular sales pattern, and that makes featured crystals part of the purchasing scheme. Kabam finally crossed that threshold, which means they need to display the drop rate. I hope you don’t just say something is “fact” without hard data. As low as the bar is, the very least they can do is to publish the drop rate. Can you think of a reason why they’re not doing that? Or are you just going to keep saying “you were told several times?” No idea what that patent conspiracy you referred to is by the way.

6* shards aren't crystals. They have no drop rates and they don't count towards the rules for look boxes.

They don't because they aren't required to. They are following the law for loot boxes exactly how they're supposed to.

You’re correct: 6* shards got no drop rate, but the only channel to redeem such purchase is through crystals. So what is your reason of Kabam not publishing the drop rate for featured crystals again EVEN if they’re not required as you’ve claimed? (100% 6* champ is not a drop rate) “They don’t because they aren’t required to?” That’s your argument?

It's like talking to a brick wall. You're reading the comments but not understanding a single one of them. Each crystal pull is independent of another. You can open 10 featured and they are all 1/24 chance of getting one of the champs in the crystal pool. There is no algorithm. I've opened 4 featured 6*'s and scorpion was one of my pulls.

The drop rate for a 6* basic or a 6* featured is 100%. You're looking for them to publish the odds of any of the the champs in the crystal. Even the ones with drop rates don't tell you that, they just tell you the chances of pulling a certain rarity.

They aren't required to tell you the probability of other than they've stated in the 6* featured it's 1/24 and in the basic it's 1/2##. There's nothing else to know. Again, even if they told you, your confirmation bias won't let you believe it's true. You already stated there was a algorithm they implement manually. You're tinfoil is on so tight, you can't see straight.

If you’ve done even the first course of Stat 101 in college, you’d know that even a single opening carries a predetermined odd, not unlike when you roll a dice. The odd of rolling a 1 is one out of six because the total number of outcome is 6. When you roll it once, the odd of you drawing a 1 is 1/6. Simple as that. The Cav analogy is not a direct comparison. It’s an example to show you how they set up the odds and that is how they do it. To understand that example, pretend Corvus represents 3*, CGR 4*, BWCV 5* and Thing 6*. Your chances of drawing Thing is much lower than you’re to draw Corvus according to their drop rate listing. EVEN if you open only one crystal. There is no such thing as independent of each other. With a game that is designed to have odds like those you find in any other crystals such as the Cav crystal, the result only comes from a designed algorithm. As enduser, we don’t know anything about the data set they use to input for each crystal unless they make it known. And you can stop with “they aren’t required to tell us the odd” because that is exactly the problem: they don’t tell us. It’s not tinfoil. It’s math and statistic. A very simple concept.

Vendemiaire

OMGJimbo said:

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice.

OMGJimbo said:

A combined 70 featured 6* crystals were opened in our alliance - not one Scorpion.

70 is not a relatively large sample size.

OMGJimbo

Nocko said:

This thread is hilarious.

Brother, the odds for scorpion are the same as every other champ in the featured pool. A flat 1/24

Someone can open 1 crystal and get him, and someone else might open 50 and not get him. Because each crystal has a flat 1/24 chance

Yes, but what you’ve said has nothing to do with the odds of drawing each champ, which was my question from the original post. You just assume they’re of equal odd. How do you think they are able to create different odds for the Cav crystal?