Featured 6* crystal - Scorpion probability

OMGJimbo

Vendemiaire said:

OMGJimbo said:

Mauled said:

SMH please not this again.

There are going to be people who pull him 5 in a row, people who never pull him. The same runs true with every single champion in the crystal. I’ve opened 13 so far and pulled 4/6 of the featured. Last featured 6* I only pulled two, the next one, who knows, I might pull all 6.

When the increasingly large sample size with the abnormality of drop rate starts to creep up, that’s where you notice.

OMGJimbo said:

A combined 70 featured 6* crystals were opened in our alliance - not one Scorpion.

70 is not a relatively large sample size.

Sure. Let’s publish the drop rate for each champ.

SummonerNR

OMGJimbo said:

** That is your assumption. Never explicitly stated by Kabam anywhere.

** Unless you can point out where Kabam tells us there is an equal odd of drawing each champ, you can’t make any argument about this being fair. So I’m waiting for you to enlighten me with that information.

** 1 in 24 odd as advertised where?

** Says who and where?

In the Kabam Support Knowledgebase articles…

https://help.kabamsupport.com/hc/en-us/articles/360052575131-I-Do-Not-Like-What-I-Got-in-My-Crystal-s-



——
So the general 15000 shard Featured crystals have equal odds for each of the 24 champs included in them.

Just like Groot does NOT have 10x as likely chance as Corvus in say a 3* or 4* normal hero crystal (Groot and Corvus would have same odds, same as any other champs that are included in 3* or 4* crystals).

Demonzfyre

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Demonzfyre said:

OMGJimbo said:

Interesting - a few consecutive responses and I couldn’t post anything pending Kabam’s approval. Kabam Miike said it? That’s your answer? Imagine they don’t list the drop rate for 3*, 4*, 5* and 6* in the Cav crystal. What exempts Kabam from listing the drop rate for all the champs they claim you can get from the featured?

Cav crystals are available to buy. You can't buy featured crystals outright like Cavs. They aren't required to show the drop rates. Cav crystals are available for money and they are required to show the drop rates.

Doesn't matter if they show them or don't show them. You've been told several times what the odds are. You're going to believe what you want too regardless of facts. There isn't anything that will make you think different. I bet you believe in the patent conspiracy as well.

That is not accurate either because now that six-star shards are for sale everyday in the daily. It became a consistent, regular sales pattern, and that makes featured crystals part of the purchasing scheme. Kabam finally crossed that threshold, which means they need to display the drop rate. I hope you don’t just say something is “fact” without hard data. As low as the bar is, the very least they can do is to publish the drop rate. Can you think of a reason why they’re not doing that? Or are you just going to keep saying “you were told several times?” No idea what that patent conspiracy you referred to is by the way.

6* shards aren't crystals. They have no drop rates and they don't count towards the rules for look boxes.

They don't because they aren't required to. They are following the law for loot boxes exactly how they're supposed to.

You’re correct: 6* shards got no drop rate, but the only channel to redeem such purchase is through crystals. So what is your reason of Kabam not publishing the drop rate for featured crystals again EVEN if they’re not required as you’ve claimed? (100% 6* champ is not a drop rate) “They don’t because they aren’t required to?” That’s your argument?

It's like talking to a brick wall. You're reading the comments but not understanding a single one of them. Each crystal pull is independent of another. You can open 10 featured and they are all 1/24 chance of getting one of the champs in the crystal pool. There is no algorithm. I've opened 4 featured 6*'s and scorpion was one of my pulls.

The drop rate for a 6* basic or a 6* featured is 100%. You're looking for them to publish the odds of any of the the champs in the crystal. Even the ones with drop rates don't tell you that, they just tell you the chances of pulling a certain rarity.

They aren't required to tell you the probability of other than they've stated in the 6* featured it's 1/24 and in the basic it's 1/2##. There's nothing else to know. Again, even if they told you, your confirmation bias won't let you believe it's true. You already stated there was a algorithm they implement manually. You're tinfoil is on so tight, you can't see straight.

If you’ve done even the first course of Stat 101 in college, you’d know that even a single opening carries a predetermined odd, not unlike when you roll a dice. The odd of rolling a 1 is one out of six because the total number of outcome is 6. When you roll it once, the odd of you drawing a 1 is 1/6. Simple as that. The Cav analogy is not a direct comparison. It’s an example to show you how they set up the odds and that is how they do it. To understand that example, pretend Corvus represents 3*, CGR 4*, BWCV 5* and Thing 6*. Your chances of drawing Thing is much lower than you’re to draw Corvus according to their drop rate listing. EVEN if you open only one crystal. There is no such thing as independent of each other. With a game that is designed to have odds like those you find in any other crystals such as the Cav crystal, the result only comes from a designed algorithm. As enduser, we don’t know anything about the data set they use to input for each crystal unless they make it known. And you can stop with “they aren’t required to tell us the odd” because that is exactly the problem: they don’t tell us. It’s not tinfoil. It’s math and statistic. A very simple concept.

Demonzfyre

OMGJimbo said:

Nocko said:

This thread is hilarious.

Brother, the odds for scorpion are the same as every other champ in the featured pool. A flat 1/24

Someone can open 1 crystal and get him, and someone else might open 50 and not get him. Because each crystal has a flat 1/24 chance

Yes, but what you’ve said has nothing to do with the odds of drawing each champ, which was my question from the original post. You just assume they’re of equal odd. How do you think they are able to create different odds for the Cav crystal?

The drop rates are for star rarities. Not for champs. The only drop rate for champs are for featured Cav crystals.


Regular crystals don't have champ drop rates-



The drop rates for individual champs are equal unless states otherwise, like in featured Cav crystals.

GinjabredMonsta

Hell kabam mike or had could comment on this right now and tell you what all have said already and I doubt you or others would believe it

DNA3000

Is it this time again?

1. The odds of any champ showing up in any crystal are equal, unless otherwise specified. For example, crystals that contain different rarities have different odds, and featured crystals increase the odds of specific champions being pulled.

2. This is specified several times by Kabam, including in official statements on the forums and in the knowledge base article linked in this thread.

3. The odds for each champion aren't even set explicitly, except in the exceptional cases like featured crystals. Instead, the game uses one of two very common partitioning algorithms generally used for lootboxes. The game basically doesn't set the odds of each champ, rather it chooses a random number equally distributed across a partitioning range equal to the number of different drops.

In other words, if a crystal contains 24 possible drops, the game rolls a random number between one and 24, or alternatively it rolls a random number between zero and one and checks for which N/24 bin that number falls within. In neither case do the developers "set" the odds of each champ, the drop algorithm takes care of that automatically.

4. I know this because this is about as obvious and standardized as how to "Hello, World" in the games industry that's why.

5. The odds of 70 featured crystals not pulling one specific champion are an astronomical ... 20 to one.

6. Also, I pulled Scorpion on the very first pull. Anecdotally, this doesn't mean Scorpion is equally likely, but it does pour cold water on the notion that it is especially rare.

7. The randomness of crystals has been tested in the past. By me, but also by others. In no case has anyone found a statistically significant deviation from what you would expect random chance to generate, if all champs were equally likely outside of the specified rarity and featured/subfeatured special odds.

8. I *personally* have more than 70 featured crystal openings recorded across five different featured crystals. There is no evidence of a statistically significant skew present in that data.

9. The first person who mentions a patent is going to rue their recent life choices.

DNA3000

OMGJimbo said:

With a game that is designed to have odds like those you find in any other crystals such as the Cav crystal, the result only comes from a designed algorithm. As enduser, we don’t know anything about the data set they use to input for each crystal unless they make it known.

These are called "weighted table lootboxes."

Vendemiaire

Oh noooo! The Featured Crystal pulled 5 objectively awesome champs I didn't want but didn't pull the champ I SPECIFICALLY wanted! Kabam is on to something! It's reading my mind! I wanted THAT champ! Not these awesome champs! 😠😠😠😠😠😠

Eb0ny-O-M4w

I got Scorpion twice out of a few crystals. So its fine

pseudosane

OMGJimbo said:

Mysterio said:

Okay you got me, I used my ilussions to hide the odds of you pulling a 6* Scorpion from the crystal. The one where you get one out of 24 possible characters. Okay now be quick I will remove the ilussions and omg I can already see the numbers appear!!!

Is that? NO WAY (Home)! I can't believe it. The actual numbers are.......1 out of 24????
Who would ever guess this?

One out of 24 characters doesn’t mean equal odd. If the algorithm, which is manually designed, determine that there should be a 10% chance of getting Rhino and the other 23 characters will share the remaining 90%, the other character will have a 3.91% odd to be opened. Just an example. You’re still going to get one out of 24 characters they advertise - just not at the equal odd that users assume because it has never been explicitly and permanently listed. You have a chance to get one out of the four star-rating in the Cav crystals - 3/4/5/6. How do you know the odd of getting each one? By reading the drop rate that Kabam publishes. Got it?

Watching too much hoff lately?