**KNOWN AW ISSUE**
Please be aware, there is a known issue with Saga badging when observing the AW map.
The team have found the source of the issue and will be updating with our next build.
We apologize for the inconvenience.
Please be aware, there is a known issue with Saga badging when observing the AW map.
The team have found the source of the issue and will be updating with our next build.
We apologize for the inconvenience.
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Probability is generally defined to be the odds of a particular outcome occurring *before* the events occur. There's no such thing as the probability of something that already happened. The probability of something happening that actually happened is 100%.
If you have a fair coin that has a 50% chance of landing heads or tails, the odds of getting a head is 50%. If you flip that coin and get heads twice in a row, the odds of getting heads again is still 50%. Each coin flip has the same 50% chance to land heads or tails. Statistically speaking, we say coin flips don't have memories. The coin doesn't remember it came up heads before, and it doesn't care for future flips.
The odds of a coin landing heads three times in a row before we flip it is one in eight. It is of course less likely to land heads three times in a row than landing heads just once. That's because there are two possibilities for one coin flip - heads or tails - and one out of two of those is heads, so there's a one in two chance for that happening. There are eight possibilities for three flips in a row - HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT - and only one of those is three heads. So there's a one in eight chance for getting three heads in a row.
BUT if you flip a coin twice and get two heads, that doesn't mean the odds of getting the third head is one in eight. It is still one in two. That's because there are only two possibilities: HHH and HHT. All other possibilities are now impossible.
We say the probability of getting a 7* drop increases with the number of crystals you open. But no matter how many crystals you open, *if* you don't get a 7* champ the odds do not get better or worse in future crystals. Similarly, if you get two heads in a row, the odds of getting another head does not go down, it remains exactly the same.
"Chance" is usually a colloquial term. Probability is generally a mathematical term with a precise mathematical definition. But in this sort of usage, chance and probability essentially mean the same thing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/11i54uo/austrian_court_rules_against_sonyea_in_lootbox/
Will make EU law in the High court.
Notice the "Each Cavalier Crystal" part? That specifically states that chances are based off of individual crystals. This isn't new, this isn't wrong, this is just how it works. Most people aren't confused by this.
I'm going to quote from another thread to respond to your last sentence: you have a 13,4% chance of getting zero 7 stars if you open 100 crystals. That's not a high percentage but still significant and very common.
Crystal drop rates have always been a per crystal drop and how many you open before and after have no bearing on each other. Opening 100 doesn't guarantee you a 7*. There is no reason for Kabam not to have them be anything other than what's displayed and it wouldn't be worth the legal problems if they were different.
Lets go by the same example again.
Chance of you getting a head or tail is 50%.
So after getting same result two times,
the chance of you getting head or tail on third try is still 50%,
but the probability of it happening for third time is 12.5%
Let me make it even simpler,
The chance of getting one thing does not change with number of results
but probability of getting one thing does change with number of results.
Chance/probability/odds/likeliness are often used in same manner but they are not same thing.
People often complain about not getting a 7star from paragon crystal because according to probability the likeliness of getting a 7star does increase with each crystal you open, but they disregard that the chance of not getting a 7star is 99%.
I think player should learn that drop chance of 1% or 0.2% is not a guarantee to get a single 7star even with 1000+crystal openings.
And if there is any inaccuracy I am open to being corrected,
just like themistake I made remembering the percentage number of 1% for 7stars.
@SummonerNR
There is no twisting of words,
Its is straight up 99% chance at not getting a 7star regardless of the number of crystals you open.
I hope @Mackey made it easier for you to understand if my words were difficult for you to understand, @AverageDesi
We explicitly teach people this is false, and to not even word salad your way to stating anything remotely like this. The key word is "after." After getting the same result two times, the probability of getting that same result a third time is 50%. The probability of flipping heads three times in a row is 12.5%. But *after* you flip heads twice, the probability of flipping heads three times in a row is now 50% - because the other two flips do not influence future flips.
This is black letter textbook stuff. If this is some new fangled Common Core math silliness, you'd be advised I eat Common Core math teachers for lunch. I can break them on the non-commutativity nonsense alone. I don't know where you learned that "chance" refers to one event and "probability" refers to sequences, but that is not standard usage. The chance of a 7* champion dropping from a batch of 100 crystals is 64%. It isn't 1% because chance only refers to one crystal. The chance of a 7* champion dropping from a batch of 100 crystals and the probability of a 7* champion dropping from a batch of 100 crystals refers to literally the same thing.
The problem they have is ironically the same problem you have, you just ended up catapulted to a different place. Probability does not state that the odds of getting a 7* champion increases with each crystal you open. Probability states the opposite: because crystal openings are independent, no matter how many you open, the probability of getting a 7* champion drop on the next crystal remains the same: 1%. That's due to the principle of independence.
The mistake is in conflating two different situations: the situation where you have 100 crystals UNOPENED and you want to know what the odds of a 7* drop happening when you open them all, and the situation where you have already opened 99 crystals (and gotten no 7* drops) and you have 1 crystal unopened and you want to know what the odds of getting a 7* drop are now. Those two situations are different, because in the first case you have 100 shots at it, while in the second case you only have 1 shot at it. The other 99 shots don't count, because the crystals don't have a memory.
People *believe* the first 99 openings matter. They are wrong. You seem to believe that probability theory states that the first 99 openings matter. You're also wrong. Probability theory states the correct thing: the odds of getting a 7* champ do not change *after* any number of openings. They change based on the number of attempts you have, but NOT on the number of attempts you have already taken.
The way this is sometimes taught is that probability is a measure of the uncertainty of the future. We don't know what is going to happen in the future, but we can calculate what all the possibilities are, and how likely they each are. But the past is the past. There is no probability to the past. Only one past happened, and it happened with 100% probability. All other possibilities have a zero percent chance to have happened.
This is one of those fundamental things people have difficulty learning, and stubbornness tends to be the largest impediment. Some people simply refuse to accept what probability means, and these people tend to find probability classes to be a random jumble of illogic. Because probability does not conform to their notions of how reality works.
The way you're using chance and probability as having extremely different innate meaning is wrong.
(quote)
Thats 99.8% chance at not getting 7star regardless of nuumber of crystals you open.
Guess how I read it at first was that 99.8% chance regardless of number of crystals you open IN THE FUTURE.
(and so needed to have “per crystal” to clarified)
I think now what you were trying to say was 99.8% chance at not getting 7* ON YOUR NEXT PULL, regardless of number of crystals you HAVE ALREADY OPENED IN THE PAST.
Think the point of all is that because of original unclear intent, it was easily misunderstood as to whether it was an accurate statement.
Anyone with proper understanding of probability will tell you that the probability of getting a head third time in a row is 12.5% and chance of you getting a head third time is still 50%.
You are confused between chance and probability.
I don't know how to simple it down to you, but I will say this.
The chances remains same and probability varies for the same outcome depending on the number of results you are calculating it for.
Also Odds and probability mean same thing while chance is completely different thing and should not be used is same manner if you want to be accurate.
You can find plenty of resource material to learn the difference between chance and probability. I can gave you a basic understanding with an example but I am not here to school it to you.
And if anyone if teaching anyone is teaching you that the chance and probability are same thing, not only are they inaccurate but also wrong in their teaching. One might need a re-evaluation of their knowledge/understanding if they are teaching this to you.
He is confused about probability and chance and is calling it same thing.
I just explained the difference with an example of coins.
I am not being rude, however if my words seem rude based on how you perceive it, then I am open to learn.
Could you please provide a source that says that chance us for individual drops and probability strictly refers to collective drops where the previous drops have already happened?
What exactly are you asking for? @AverageDesi
What exactly are you asking for? @AverageDesi
Something, anything, maybe a math paper or at least some website that uses chance and probability with the same meaning that you use
Source that I found explains it in the most easy way to understand it: https://www.differencebetween.com/difference-between-probability-and-vs-chance/
Here is simple explanation stating the probability of getting a coin as head third time in a row is 12.5% that is 1/8
https://www.cuemath.com/questions/if-a-coin-is-tossed-three-times-the-likelihood-of-obtaining-three-heads-in-a-row-is/
And here is a simple explanation of difference between probability and chance.
https://www.vedantu.com/maths/chance-and-probability.
You may also refer to the link mentioned by @IvarTheBoneless
To be honest you could have searched it on your own.