You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items.
I have to strongly disagree with that interpretation of MATH.
Percentages (of probability or odds) do NOT have “one way” of looking at them in which you can take the totality into account and say what “should” happen next based on what else “had” happened before.
In no way can you ever say that if the odds of something happening is 1%, that if you run the experiment 100 times you are guaranteed of getting that something to happen at least once.
—— The only way of looking at it like that is if you deal with percentages the way Crystal SHARDS are dealt with. You open a Dup'd champ, you absolutely get ## amount of shards toward the next crystal. In that case, each Dup does not give you a 5% chance (for example) of the game giving you another actual champ right then and there. It gives you a guaranteed amount of progress toward another champ instead. But that is not Probability or Odds, that is completely different.
I always love how players like to say "I've played this game for X amount of time" as if that entitles them to preferential treatment. If you've played that long, you know that this game is RNG, with some times you're lucky and sometimes you're not.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.
Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.
The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
When will players understand that kabam is not the people who invented loot boxes and probabilities and any and all sorts of game mechanics?these have been used by other games too
You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Fake randomness? Of course it is faking randomness. But for all intents and purposes it is true random. If there actually was some problem with the "randomness ' it would be much more noticeable than the occasional post of someone whining because they got 2 bad champions
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Sorry if that was above your head
No..no that's not it at all. There is no algorithm. Period.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Sorry if that was above your head
No..no that's not it at all. There is no algorithm. Period.
How does a computer generate a random number? Someone had to tell it a way. If you don't believe me, look it up. You'll get into entropy, chaos, and randomness
This isn't to you, but my point was that what they are doing is fine by "faking randomness". They are not trying to rip anyone off. It is fine. That was in my last paragraph. It isn't paranoid or speculative.
Look up rng. Take those classes in statistics, computers, and maybe an advanced chemisrty on entropy as others suggested a statistics class. Trust me....there would be a lot less players if they had to pass a statistics class and understand it versus plugging it into a phone and popping out a percentage. But that is still better than thinking you should get 2 7* popping 200 crystals.
I am actually agreeing that the OP was not cheated. But was being a bit sarcastic that they need to ask how mcoc does randomness, but it may not be exactly how you think either. However, the end result will be as stated (or maybe slightly better with rounding where needed) to avoid legal complications.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Sorry if that was above your head
No..no that's not it at all. There is no algorithm. Period.
How does a computer generate a random number? Someone had to tell it a way. If you don't believe me, look it up. You'll get into entropy, chaos, and randomness
This isn't to you, but my point was that what they are doing is fine by "faking randomness". They are not trying to rip anyone off. It is fine. That was in my last paragraph. It isn't paranoid or speculative.
Look up rng. Take those classes in statistics, computers, and maybe an advanced chemisrty on entropy as others suggested a statistics class. Trust me....there would be a lot less players if they had to pass a statistics class and understand it versus plugging it into a phone and popping out a percentage. But that is still better than thinking you should get 2 7* popping 200 crystals.
I am actually agreeing that the OP was not cheated. But was being a bit sarcastic that they need to ask how mcoc does randomness, but it may not be exactly how you think either. However, the end result will be as stated (or maybe slightly better with rounding where needed) to avoid legal complications.
If there's an algorithm, it can't be RNG. If there's an algorithm, we would have found it by now (think infinite streak in arena. Not an intended feature but we found that).
@DNA3000 can explain it better than I can but it's basically like so- There's a file that has each champ 1-25 and when a crystal is opened, the game client talks to the server side and gets the number and that's the champ you get. The server knows to send back a random number from that number set. I believe in the business, those numbers are called seeds.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Sorry if that was above your head
No..no that's not it at all. There is no algorithm. Period.
How does a computer generate a random number? Someone had to tell it a way. If you don't believe me, look it up. You'll get into entropy, chaos, and randomness
This isn't to you, but my point was that what they are doing is fine by "faking randomness". They are not trying to rip anyone off. It is fine. That was in my last paragraph. It isn't paranoid or speculative.
Look up rng. Take those classes in statistics, computers, and maybe an advanced chemisrty on entropy as others suggested a statistics class. Trust me....there would be a lot less players if they had to pass a statistics class and understand it versus plugging it into a phone and popping out a percentage. But that is still better than thinking you should get 2 7* popping 200 crystals.
I am actually agreeing that the OP was not cheated. But was being a bit sarcastic that they need to ask how mcoc does randomness, but it may not be exactly how you think either. However, the end result will be as stated (or maybe slightly better with rounding where needed) to avoid legal complications.
If there's an algorithm, it can't be RNG. If there's an algorithm, we would have found it by now (think infinite streak in arena. Not an intended feature but we found that).
@DNA3000 can explain it better than I can but it's basically like so- There's a file that has each champ 1-25 and when a crystal is opened, the game client talks to the server side and gets the number and that's the champ you get. The server knows to send back a random number from that number set. I believe in the business, those numbers are called seeds.
From what I see those seeds still feed from a psuedorandom generation or from hardware. The hardware generation is looking at the entropy based event I had mentioned as the other possibility. It does appear that the seed can be random (not always), but it still picks from non-random giving the same effect.
Either way, my point still is that no one is getting ripped off.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Sorry if that was above your head
No..no that's not it at all. There is no algorithm. Period.
How does a computer generate a random number? Someone had to tell it a way. If you don't believe me, look it up. You'll get into entropy, chaos, and randomness
This isn't to you, but my point was that what they are doing is fine by "faking randomness". They are not trying to rip anyone off. It is fine. That was in my last paragraph. It isn't paranoid or speculative.
Look up rng. Take those classes in statistics, computers, and maybe an advanced chemisrty on entropy as others suggested a statistics class. Trust me....there would be a lot less players if they had to pass a statistics class and understand it versus plugging it into a phone and popping out a percentage. But that is still better than thinking you should get 2 7* popping 200 crystals.
I am actually agreeing that the OP was not cheated. But was being a bit sarcastic that they need to ask how mcoc does randomness, but it may not be exactly how you think either. However, the end result will be as stated (or maybe slightly better with rounding where needed) to avoid legal complications.
If there's an algorithm, it can't be RNG. If there's an algorithm, we would have found it by now (think infinite streak in arena. Not an intended feature but we found that).
@DNA3000 can explain it better than I can but it's basically like so- There's a file that has each champ 1-25 and when a crystal is opened, the game client talks to the server side and gets the number and that's the champ you get. The server knows to send back a random number from that number set. I believe in the business, those numbers are called seeds.
RNG almost always requires an algorithm. The only other alternative is to utilize natural sources of randomness, Cloudflare uses lava lamps for example. That takes enormous amounts of research and effort, so almost everyone uses random number algorithms. One of the most common is xorshift128+. This may be what MCOC ultimately uses, it's implemented in Unity, Javascript, and several other frameworks. These algorithms are developed to mimic a theoretical perfect random number generator, and a multitude of statistical tests are ran against them to ensure they behave as expected. We don't know for certain what algorithm is used in MCOC, they most likely use whatever generator is implemented by the language they use for their server. What we do know is that it behaves as we would expect if everything were ideal.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Sorry if that was above your head
No..no that's not it at all. There is no algorithm. Period.
How does a computer generate a random number? Someone had to tell it a way. If you don't believe me, look it up. You'll get into entropy, chaos, and randomness
This isn't to you, but my point was that what they are doing is fine by "faking randomness". They are not trying to rip anyone off. It is fine. That was in my last paragraph. It isn't paranoid or speculative.
Look up rng. Take those classes in statistics, computers, and maybe an advanced chemisrty on entropy as others suggested a statistics class. Trust me....there would be a lot less players if they had to pass a statistics class and understand it versus plugging it into a phone and popping out a percentage. But that is still better than thinking you should get 2 7* popping 200 crystals.
I am actually agreeing that the OP was not cheated. But was being a bit sarcastic that they need to ask how mcoc does randomness, but it may not be exactly how you think either. However, the end result will be as stated (or maybe slightly better with rounding where needed) to avoid legal complications.
Yes it is true that computers generate pseudorandom numbers because there is no other way for them to generate them. So yes they are faking randomness. However, Kabam does not need to mess with that at all. A lot of programming languages have libraries with functions designed to produce the pseudorandom numbers. So all Kabam needs to do is assign each champion in the crystal a number and tell the random function to generate a number in the desired range. For example, for a featured crystal, all Kabam needs to do is assign a number between 1 and 24 to all champs in the crystal and give that range to the function.
Now as to how said function is implemented, it depends entirely on the programming language being used. Using the same seed to generate pseudorandom numbers will output the same sequence every time. Languages that implement this random function will typically have a way to deal with this. Java, for example, will use the system's nanosecond-precise time to create the seed if none is provided. C#, which is the language that is commonly used to code in Unity, utilizes the same approach.
TL;DR: The numbers are as close to random as they can possibly get.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
Sorry if that was above your head
No..no that's not it at all. There is no algorithm. Period.
How does a computer generate a random number? Someone had to tell it a way. If you don't believe me, look it up. You'll get into entropy, chaos, and randomness
This isn't to you, but my point was that what they are doing is fine by "faking randomness". They are not trying to rip anyone off. It is fine. That was in my last paragraph. It isn't paranoid or speculative.
Look up rng. Take those classes in statistics, computers, and maybe an advanced chemisrty on entropy as others suggested a statistics class. Trust me....there would be a lot less players if they had to pass a statistics class and understand it versus plugging it into a phone and popping out a percentage. But that is still better than thinking you should get 2 7* popping 200 crystals.
I am actually agreeing that the OP was not cheated. But was being a bit sarcastic that they need to ask how mcoc does randomness, but it may not be exactly how you think either. However, the end result will be as stated (or maybe slightly better with rounding where needed) to avoid legal complications.
If there's an algorithm, it can't be RNG. If there's an algorithm, we would have found it by now (think infinite streak in arena. Not an intended feature but we found that).
@DNA3000 can explain it better than I can but it's basically like so- There's a file that has each champ 1-25 and when a crystal is opened, the game client talks to the server side and gets the number and that's the champ you get. The server knows to send back a random number from that number set. I believe in the business, those numbers are called seeds.
RNG almost always requires an algorithm. The only other alternative is to utilize natural sources of randomness, Cloudflare uses lava lamps for example. That takes enormous amounts of research and effort, so almost everyone uses random number algorithms. One of the most common is xorshift128+. This may be what MCOC ultimately uses, it's implemented in Unity, Javascript, and several other frameworks. These algorithms are developed to mimic a theoretical perfect random number generator, and a multitude of statistical tests are ran against them to ensure they behave as expected. We don't know for certain what algorithm is used in MCOC, they most likely use whatever generator is implemented by the language they use for their server. What we do know is that it behaves as we would expect if everything were ideal.
Thanks! Lavalamp for entropy. I am glad you could put this into better words.
So...there are other questions they could ask....does Kabam use an algorithm that fakes randomness or does it evaluate an event with true entropy that feeds back randomness to an equation or algorithm that calculates a randomness.
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is not a dig at your specifically, but no one should be using terms like "fake entropy" unless they are extremely well educated on the subject, because this is an extremely complex technical subject that Google surfing and wikipedia browsing will cover about as well as TVTropes will.
In the real world, there is "sufficiently random" and "not sufficiently random" for purpose. Kabam's crystals only need to be sufficiently random to satisfy three basic criteria:
1. There is no statistical bias between results. In other words, there's no way to predict ahead of time that any particular result will happen more often than random chance would imply.
2. There is no statistical correlation between results. In other words, there's no way to predict after watching some reasonable number of drops which ones will be more likely in successive drops.
3. There is no observable repeatability. In other words, over the lifetime of the game, there's no way to observe crystal drops and determine a pattern that will repeat over time.
Any random number generator that has these properties is "random enough" for Kabam's crystals. Whether that generator is "truly random" is a meaningless statement, because there's no generally accepted definition of "truly random."
Someone is right now thinking "quantum effects are truly random, I saw it in wikipedia." No, they are random by a very specific definition of randomness comparable to the one I just articulated above. Quantum effects obey certain statistical properties that imply things like no hidden local variables, no local determinism, and so forth. But the definition most people use (who talk about "truly random") is "impossible to predict." However, that's only true if we ignore things like quantum correlations. Quantum entangled systems simultaneously have statistically random behavior in observed components, but *predictable* correlations. And that means even quantum systems do not meet the colloquial definition of "truly random."
Proof there is no such thing as a "true random number generator." Imagine such a generator being built and spitting out random numbers. A truly random number generator should be able to do this forever, without ever falling into a repeating cycle. It would never become predictable. Look at the smallest possible sphere that encloses the quantum random number generator. This sphere has a maximum entropy possible due to the holographic principle proportional to its surface area. The generator cannot generate more randomness than this maximal entropy. Therefore, regardless of what quantum principles it is constructed with, it *must* eventually repeat in an endless predictable cycle forever. QED.
In *practice* it is possible to construct quantum entropy systems that don't repeat in the lifetime of the universe but it is also possible to construct mathematical generators that also don't. And more importantly, it is much easier to use existing pRNG algorithms that will not repeat on the timescales of the existence of MCOC. Which means they are for all intents and purposes "random enough."
Since the Paragon crystals have come out I’ve opened over 200 crystals every which way and have not gotten a single 7 star. The drop date says 1 pct which is an obvious mathematical lie. Hopefully you all have better luck than myself. Submitted a ticket wanting answers and the typical talk in circles bs. 8 years playing and only getting worse.
I've opened 28. Here's 2 of the 28:
So by your reckoning i can skip the next 72 openings. Good to know.
Since the Paragon crystals have come out I’ve opened over 200 crystals every which way and have not gotten a single 7 star. The drop date says 1 pct which is an obvious mathematical lie. Hopefully you all have better luck than myself. Submitted a ticket wanting answers and the typical talk in circles bs. 8 years playing and only getting worse.
I've opened 28. Here's 2 of the 28:
So by your reckoning i can skip the next 72 openings. Good to know.
RNG almost always requires an algorithm. The only other alternative is to utilize natural sources of randomness, Cloudflare uses lava lamps for example. That takes enormous amounts of research and effort, so almost everyone uses random number algorithms.
It is important to note here that Cloudflare doesn't directly use the image data from the lava lamps to generate random numbers. Instead, they are used along with other independent sources as entropy sources to seed their actual pRNG generators.
Cloudflare needs cryptographically secure random number generators, and that's a higher level of randomness than what a game's crystal spinner requires. There's typically only a few possible options Kabam's crystals can generate, up to maybe a thousand. That's just ten bits of randomness required from a generator spitting out 32 to 64 bits of RNG at a time. That's why even slot machines typically use variations on Mersenne Twister. It is an easy RNG to implement in hardware, very well studied, and its weaknesses are known to be irrelevant to a slot machine picking from a handful of options at a time. Billions of dollars every day essentially pass through Mersenne Twister based lootboxes.
However, systems that use RNG in cryptographical applications need far more stringent randomness and more importantly lots of it. In the entire history of MCOC there's almost certainly been less than a trillion crystals opened. That amount of generated randomness is used every hour by Cloudflare. This means Cloudflare needs much larger sources of entropy to feed their random number generators.
Just noticed this page about Crystal Drop Rates (while looking for the new “Store” via their own website processor, which btw, is available from upper right corner “2 Line” icon)
Comments
Percentages (of probability or odds) do NOT have “one way” of looking at them in which you can take the totality into account and say what “should” happen next based on what else “had” happened before.
In no way can you ever say that if the odds of something happening is 1%, that if you run the experiment 100 times you are guaranteed of getting that something to happen at least once.
——
The only way of looking at it like that is if you deal with percentages the way Crystal SHARDS are dealt with. You open a Dup'd champ, you absolutely get ## amount of shards toward the next crystal.
In that case, each Dup does not give you a 5% chance (for example) of the game giving you another actual champ right then and there. It gives you a guaranteed amount of progress toward another champ instead.
But that is not Probability or Odds, that is completely different.
If you've played that long, you know that this game is RNG, with some times you're lucky and sometimes you're not.
Ref: Binomial distribution
My guess is the first. Now you all need to figure out the algorithm or programmed algorithm package that unity and/or Kabam uses to create a random like effect.
This is something you need to listen to Kabam on. It is true that there could be an issue at times, but if anyone was aware of it, they would risk wearing an orange jumpsuit for many years and my guess is, those guys aren't the ones getting the big bucks at the top, so very little reason to do such a thing.
This isn't to you, but my point was that what they are doing is fine by "faking randomness". They are not trying to rip anyone off. It is fine. That was in my last paragraph. It isn't paranoid or speculative.
Look up rng. Take those classes in statistics, computers, and maybe an advanced chemisrty on entropy as others suggested a statistics class. Trust me....there would be a lot less players if they had to pass a statistics class and understand it versus plugging it into a phone and popping out a percentage. But that is still better than thinking you should get 2 7* popping 200 crystals.
I am actually agreeing that the OP was not cheated. But was being a bit sarcastic that they need to ask how mcoc does randomness, but it may not be exactly how you think either. However, the end result will be as stated (or maybe slightly better with rounding where needed) to avoid legal complications.
@DNA3000 can explain it better than I can but it's basically like so-
There's a file that has each champ 1-25 and when a crystal is opened, the game client talks to the server side and gets the number and that's the champ you get. The server knows to send back a random number from that number set. I believe in the business, those numbers are called seeds.
u do u, normie
Either way, my point still is that no one is getting ripped off.
Now as to how said function is implemented, it depends entirely on the programming language being used. Using the same seed to generate pseudorandom numbers will output the same sequence every time. Languages that implement this random function will typically have a way to deal with this. Java, for example, will use the system's nanosecond-precise time to create the seed if none is provided. C#, which is the language that is commonly used to code in Unity, utilizes the same approach.
TL;DR: The numbers are as close to random as they can possibly get.
In the real world, there is "sufficiently random" and "not sufficiently random" for purpose. Kabam's crystals only need to be sufficiently random to satisfy three basic criteria:
1. There is no statistical bias between results. In other words, there's no way to predict ahead of time that any particular result will happen more often than random chance would imply.
2. There is no statistical correlation between results. In other words, there's no way to predict after watching some reasonable number of drops which ones will be more likely in successive drops.
3. There is no observable repeatability. In other words, over the lifetime of the game, there's no way to observe crystal drops and determine a pattern that will repeat over time.
Any random number generator that has these properties is "random enough" for Kabam's crystals. Whether that generator is "truly random" is a meaningless statement, because there's no generally accepted definition of "truly random."
Someone is right now thinking "quantum effects are truly random, I saw it in wikipedia." No, they are random by a very specific definition of randomness comparable to the one I just articulated above. Quantum effects obey certain statistical properties that imply things like no hidden local variables, no local determinism, and so forth. But the definition most people use (who talk about "truly random") is "impossible to predict." However, that's only true if we ignore things like quantum correlations. Quantum entangled systems simultaneously have statistically random behavior in observed components, but *predictable* correlations. And that means even quantum systems do not meet the colloquial definition of "truly random."
Proof there is no such thing as a "true random number generator." Imagine such a generator being built and spitting out random numbers. A truly random number generator should be able to do this forever, without ever falling into a repeating cycle. It would never become predictable. Look at the smallest possible sphere that encloses the quantum random number generator. This sphere has a maximum entropy possible due to the holographic principle proportional to its surface area. The generator cannot generate more randomness than this maximal entropy. Therefore, regardless of what quantum principles it is constructed with, it *must* eventually repeat in an endless predictable cycle forever. QED.
In *practice* it is possible to construct quantum entropy systems that don't repeat in the lifetime of the universe but it is also possible to construct mathematical generators that also don't. And more importantly, it is much easier to use existing pRNG algorithms that will not repeat on the timescales of the existence of MCOC. Which means they are for all intents and purposes "random enough."
So by your reckoning i can skip the next 72 openings. Good to know.
Cloudflare needs cryptographically secure random number generators, and that's a higher level of randomness than what a game's crystal spinner requires. There's typically only a few possible options Kabam's crystals can generate, up to maybe a thousand. That's just ten bits of randomness required from a generator spitting out 32 to 64 bits of RNG at a time. That's why even slot machines typically use variations on Mersenne Twister. It is an easy RNG to implement in hardware, very well studied, and its weaknesses are known to be irrelevant to a slot machine picking from a handful of options at a time. Billions of dollars every day essentially pass through Mersenne Twister based lootboxes.
However, systems that use RNG in cryptographical applications need far more stringent randomness and more importantly lots of it. In the entire history of MCOC there's almost certainly been less than a trillion crystals opened. That amount of generated randomness is used every hour by Cloudflare. This means Cloudflare needs much larger sources of entropy to feed their random number generators.
https://playcontestofchampions.com/crystal-drop-rates/