There is no such thing as "50/50 RNG". The R is for Random. The chance you would get the same result 12 out of 16 times is not that incredible tbh. Unlucky, sure, but that's b/c it is randomly generated. If it rolled based on your previous result it would not be random.
I once went to a roulette wheel and saw that the last 25 numbers to hit were all red. Put my money on black because there is no possible way for it to hit red a 26th time in a row.
Bad example?
I once flipped a coin 50 times in a row and it came up tails every time. The 51st flip will be heads right? No way 51 tails in a row is possible...
Now clone yourself 100 times and all 100 of you try to do it. How many of you do you think will get 51 tails in a row? 10/25/50/100
It’s definitely unfair when you see the opponents loaded with top tier champs you can’t pull cuz RNG says you can’t have them. It’s embarrassing that this hasn’t been fixed yet
I once went to a roulette wheel and saw that the last 25 numbers to hit were all red. Put my money on black because there is no possible way for it to hit red a 26th time in a row.
Bad example?
I once flipped a coin 50 times in a row and it came up tails every time. The 51st flip will be heads right? No way 51 tails in a row is possible...
Now clone yourself 100 times and all 100 of you try to do it. How many of you do you think will get 51 tails in a row? 10/25/50/100
While that scenario is certainly mathematically improbable, it still is not impossible. That’s the same mindset of degenerate gamblers who believe there is “just no way” they’re going to lose the next one, or the next one, or the next one. Not how odds or RNG work; each instance occurs in a vacuum, rendering cumulative results meaningless as a predictive indicator of future performance.
I once went to a roulette wheel and saw that the last 25 numbers to hit were all red. Put my money on black because there is no possible way for it to hit red a 26th time in a row.
Bad example?
I once flipped a coin 50 times in a row and it came up tails every time. The 51st flip will be heads right? No way 51 tails in a row is possible...
Now clone yourself 100 times and all 100 of you try to do it. How many of you do you think will get 51 tails in a row? 10/25/50/100
While that scenario is certainly mathematically improbable, it still is not impossible. That’s the same mindset of degenerate gamblers who believe there is “just no way” they’re going to lose the next one, or the next one, or the next one. Not how odds or RNG work; each instance occurs in a vacuum, rendering cumulative results meaningless as a predictive indicator of future performance.
Nowhere has kabam said it’s based on RNG. It’s reasonable to ask them if there is an algorithm that determines who gets to place first. A person assuming it’s RNG is just about as accurate as the person who assumes there is an algorithm to determine this. Until someone with access to developers confirms one way or another. There have been plenty of anecdotal reports where you are either placing first all the time or second all the time so expecting some clarification is not a reason to be made fun off.
There are enough posts on the forum to suggest this is not RNG. I've played ~50 matches and picked second once. If the chances of picking first or second is equal then the likelihood of getting 49 matches picking first is almost one in a quadrillion. Even if we have had millions of matches, then someone ending up with that sequence is a one in a billion chance. Multiple people have had this issue. It is almost definitely not random.
As pathetic the silence from the devs on this is, the response from regular forum users like you is worse. We get that it doesn't affect you, but there is no need to belittle a genuine concern by saying "random" or "that's how it goes" or as one forum gaurdian put it "accept your fate".
It might be a small part of the player base, but they have been given a permanent handicap in what is supposed to be a competition. That is hardly something to be ok with.
Also it's not really a handicap. Not once have i felt that i was at a disadvantage picking first because i was able to see the opponents deck beforehand and get an idea of what i want to do regardless of picking first or second
Your feeling about this is immaterial. The advantage in picking and placing second is a fact. The player placing second has an information advantage which is not debatable. Would you be ok with some % of the player base having decks of 25 champs, some at 30 and some at 35? After all you only get to play with 7.
I responded to this with a long paragraph but the forum took it to approval hell so I'll just say, yes it does impact me as I've stated, someone always has to pick first in every bgs match and the game cannot ensure everyone is picking first 50% of the time because then no one would be able to get matches, it's certainly not rigged as kabam doesn't have the tech for it. Kabam also doesn't have to comment on this because like how matchmaking works, it's just how it works and that's that. You are really just assuming a lot of things and overlaying your personal bias and salt onto this "issue"
The gap between ensuring 50% distribution and locking in players in their picks is enormous. I and several others are picking first almost 100% of the time. Whether deliberate or not, that is a rigged competition for us. We are paying the same for elder marks as everyone else, but being forced to play with a handicap.
I once went to a roulette wheel and saw that the last 25 numbers to hit were all red. Put my money on black because there is no possible way for it to hit red a 26th time in a row.
Bad example?
I once flipped a coin 50 times in a row and it came up tails every time. The 51st flip will be heads right? No way 51 tails in a row is possible...
Now clone yourself 100 times and all 100 of you try to do it. How many of you do you think will get 51 tails in a row? 10/25/50/100
You're equating possibility and probability. All of my 100 clones flipping tails 51 times in a row most likely isn't probable. But given, as was pointed out by a pretty smart forum user you're replying to, each occurrence (or flip) is its own event and in no way has any determination on future events, it is entirely possible.
I once went to a roulette wheel and saw that the last 25 numbers to hit were all red. Put my money on black because there is no possible way for it to hit red a 26th time in a row.
Bad example?
I once flipped a coin 50 times in a row and it came up tails every time. The 51st flip will be heads right? No way 51 tails in a row is possible...
yes its possible but its super super rare and yes super super rare thing happens me daily. why? coz i m superman not just me there are plenty supermans having this super super rare thing
I once went to a roulette wheel and saw that the last 25 numbers to hit were all red. Put my money on black because there is no possible way for it to hit red a 26th time in a row.
Bad example?
I once flipped a coin 50 times in a row and it came up tails every time. The 51st flip will be heads right? No way 51 tails in a row is possible...
Now clone yourself 100 times and all 100 of you try to do it. How many of you do you think will get 51 tails in a row? 10/25/50/100
You're equating possibility and probability. All of my 100 clones flipping tails 51 times in a row most likely isn't probable. But given, as was pointed out by a pretty smart forum user you're replying to, each occurrence (or flip) is its own event and in no way has any determination on future events, it is entirely possible.
It's not very complicated. The probability of getting 51 tails out of 51 coin tosses is a ~4.4 e-16 (4 times in 10 quadrillion). If you flipped a coin 51 times in a row and got tails every time, you are either the luckiest person in the world or you had a loaded coin.
All of these calculations assume that the next flip is truly independent of the previous outcomes. Even then the probability of getting that sequence in an unbiased system is vanishingly low. Multiple people generating those sequence is even lower.
Longer this happens, lower the likelihood that this is a truly random event. It is more likely that some players are just being screwed over.
There is no such thing as "50/50 RNG". The R is for Random. The chance you would get the same result 12 out of 16 times is not that incredible tbh. Unlucky, sure, but that's b/c it is randomly generated. If it rolled based on your previous result it would not be random.
if it was just for day or 2, i wouldn't have talked about this its repeating daily, if its just rng why there was no day that i had good rng? or kinda average rng?
I once went to a roulette wheel and saw that the last 25 numbers to hit were all red. Put my money on black because there is no possible way for it to hit red a 26th time in a row.
Bad example?
I once flipped a coin 50 times in a row and it came up tails every time. The 51st flip will be heads right? No way 51 tails in a row is possible...
yes its possible but its super super rare and yes super super rare thing happens me daily. why? coz i m superman not just me there are plenty supermans having this super super rare thing
No one is arguing that it isn’t “super rare”, just that it isn’t impossible. Weird stuff happens all the time: two-headed calves, albino buffalo, the New York Rangers winning the Stanley Cup.
When it happens to you, it seems like something is rigged, because you can’t comprehend how the mathematically impossible “whatever” hit you, but that’s how life works.
@Stature You either didn't read my reply to you or misunderstood it. Allow me to clear one thing up... I 100% agree with your math. But again you are equating PROBABILITY with POSSIBILITY.
Yes, according to the numbers there is an extremely low PROBABILITY that if 1000 people flip a coin 100 times each that tails will come up on every flip for every person. However that scenario is not IMPOSSIBLE. Since each flip is totally independent with absolutely no bearing or affect on any other flip past or future, it is totally POSSIBLE that every outcome is exactly the same. Are the odds (or probability) of that happening high? Absolutely not.
A simpler explanation... Is it possible that the next girl I ask out will go on a date with me? Sure it's possible. Probable given my dry spell lately... very low. But the results of me asking the next girl out won't affect the results of the next one after that. And yes, that's why I play too much MCOC. I need something to do...
RNG doesn't automatically mean it's based on our own previous chance, or 50/50 from our own Matches. It most likely means it chooses randomly between the two sides. Which is a whole other ballgame, and you need much more data to analyze. Not just our own results.
No one is arguing that it isn’t “super rare”, just that it isn’t impossible. Weird stuff happens all the time: two-headed calves, albino buffalo, the New York Rangers winning the Stanley Cup.
When it happens to you, it seems like something is rigged, because you can’t comprehend how the mathematically impossible “whatever” hit you, but that’s how life works.
Better known as confirmation bias.
You need an alliance @TheCaptain412? You seem like a smart level headed kind of person.
Just gotta change your approach. Place your best defender to try guarantee a first round win, and you'll have a bigger advantage in the next round to take the entire W.
Would be a far simpler approach from Kabam's end if the person who picks last, places first. As picking last AND placing 2nd are 2 massive advantages.
Now @Stature how these outcomes as related to MCOC make you feel...
You're allowed to feel like it sucks and I for one am not going to tell you to not feel that way. You're entitled to feel and have your feelings. Nothing wrong with that.
No one is arguing that it isn’t “super rare”, just that it isn’t impossible. Weird stuff happens all the time: two-headed calves, albino buffalo, the New York Rangers winning the Stanley Cup.
When it happens to you, it seems like something is rigged, because you can’t comprehend how the mathematically impossible “whatever” hit you, but that’s how life works.
so how often do you see two headed calves ? daily or in every station or every farm ? since , its not impossible to have two headed calves in every farm right ?
RNG doesn't automatically mean it's based on our own previous chance, or 50/50 from our own Matches. It most likely means it chooses randomly between the two sides. Which is a whole other ballgame, and you need much more data to analyze. Not just our own results.
of course rng is not based on previous results but R supposed to be random right ? then why same pattern daily? i m not talking about just one day here , its consistently happening and has pattern thats why its not RANDOM.
RNG doesn't automatically mean it's based on our own previous chance, or 50/50 from our own Matches. It most likely means it chooses randomly between the two sides. Which is a whole other ballgame, and you need much more data to analyze. Not just our own results.
of course rng is not based on previous results but R supposed to be random right ? then why same pattern daily? i m not talking about just one day here , its consistently happening and has pattern thats why its not RANDOM.
RNG literally means you have a 50/50 chance each time. Not that it will net a tit-for-tat result. I would have to see the results of many, many Players in order to determine if something is amiss, and the fact is, the results are consistent simply because for every Player choosing first, there is another Player choosing second.
RNG doesn't automatically mean it's based on our own previous chance, or 50/50 from our own Matches. It most likely means it chooses randomly between the two sides. Which is a whole other ballgame, and you need much more data to analyze. Not just our own results.
of course rng is not based on previous results but R supposed to be random right ? then why same pattern daily? i m not talking about just one day here , its consistently happening and has pattern thats why its not RANDOM.
RNG literally means you have a 50/50 chance each time. Not that it will net a tit-for-tat result. I would have to see the results of many, many Players in order to determine if something is amiss, and the fact is, the results are consistent simply because for every Player choosing first, there is another Player choosing second.
thats why i did mention that some are consistently picking 2nd where some are picking 1st i know there are equal amount of players who have consistently picking 2nd and they will not post about it
No one is arguing that it isn’t “super rare”, just that it isn’t impossible. Weird stuff happens all the time: two-headed calves, albino buffalo, the New York Rangers winning the Stanley Cup.
When it happens to you, it seems like something is rigged, because you can’t comprehend how the mathematically impossible “whatever” hit you, but that’s how life works.
so how often do you see two headed calves ? daily or in every station or every farm ? since , its not impossible to have two headed calves in every farm right ?
My goodness @Crossy76 have you not read any of this?
Probability (the likelihood of something happening) and possibility (something that may happen) are not the same thing. Yes two headed calves are rare, a low PROBABILTY occurrence. But just because you've never seen one doesn't mean the POSSIBILITY of one doesn't exist. Yup... highly improbable that every farm everywhere doesn't have a two headed calf. Doesn't mean that the possibility doesn't exist.
No one is arguing that it isn’t “super rare”, just that it isn’t impossible. Weird stuff happens all the time: two-headed calves, albino buffalo, the New York Rangers winning the Stanley Cup.
When it happens to you, it seems like something is rigged, because you can’t comprehend how the mathematically impossible “whatever” hit you, but that’s how life works.
so how often do you see two headed calves ? daily or in every station or every farm ? since , its not impossible to have two headed calves in every farm right ?
You are LITERALLY proving my point.
Two-headed calves are not impossible, even to have on every farm. They DO exist.
However, because of their extremely rare nature, so much so that every farm DOESN’T have one, they ARE mathematically improbable.
Is there more than one two-headed calf in the world right now? Probably. More than five? Possibly. More than a dozen? Unlikely, but still possible.
You obviously don’t grasp the basic fact that just because something happens to more than one person or to any kind of extreme, it still is not indicative of anything more than random chance.
my first statement is about " its seems like it not just rng there could be more (algorithm). since there is no official statement about how it works no one is wrong i will happily accept its its rng only. cox its its just rng then i can be lucky as well
@Stature You either didn't read my reply to you or misunderstood it. Allow me to clear one thing up... I 100% agree with your math. But again you are equating PROBABILITY with POSSIBILITY.
Yes, according to the numbers there is an extremely low PROBABILITY that if 1000 people flip a coin 100 times each that tails will come up on every flip for every person. However that scenario is not IMPOSSIBLE. Since each flip is totally independent with absolutely no bearing or affect on any other flip past or future, it is totally POSSIBLE that every outcome is exactly the same. Are the odds (or probability) of that happening high? Absolutely not.
A simpler explanation... Is it possible that the next girl I ask out will go on a date with me? Sure it's possible. Probable given my dry spell lately... very low. But the results of me asking the next girl out won't affect the results of the next one after that. And yes, that's why I play too much MCOC. I need something to do...
Which is more possible - that one in a quadrillion sequence is happening multiple times or the ordering system is bugged?
If the team comes out and says this was random, that's fine I was unlucky. Until they don't the facts available suggest that it isn't random.
Just gotta change your approach. Place your best defender to try guarantee a first round win, and you'll have a bigger advantage in the next round to take the entire W.
Would be a far simpler approach from Kabam's end if the person who picks last, places first. As picking last AND placing 2nd are 2 massive advantages.
Agree, this is a simple fix they could do to address the imbalance.
No one is arguing that it isn’t “super rare”, just that it isn’t impossible. Weird stuff happens all the time: two-headed calves, albino buffalo, the New York Rangers winning the Stanley Cup.
When it happens to you, it seems like something is rigged, because you can’t comprehend how the mathematically impossible “whatever” hit you, but that’s how life works.
so how often do you see two headed calves ? daily or in every station or every farm ? since , its not impossible to have two headed calves in every farm right ?
My goodness @Crossy76 have you not read any of this?
Probability (the likelihood of something happening) and possibility (something that may happen) are not the same thing. Yes two headed calves are rare, a low PROBABILTY occurrence. But just because you've never seen one doesn't mean the POSSIBILITY of one doesn't exist. Yup... highly improbable that every farm everywhere doesn't have a two headed calf. Doesn't mean that the possibility doesn't exist.
You and @TheCaptain412 are the only 2 people arguing about possibility and probability. No one is saying it’s not possible to be the one having to place first 57 times. But only in the past week, there have been numerous threads by different people with the same statement that they are either placing first all the time or placing second all the time. The probability of this happening is so low that something seems amiss. People are just asking if it’s truly RNG or algorithm based. No one is saying it’s impossible because it is happening.
The people just constantly saying it's completely random and equal chance just don't seem to get it, and don't seem to understand maths.
Something is making things skewed for certain people, whether it's something about their roster, their behaviour in banning, in accepting the match or whatever. The evidence is there that it's not just a 50% chance who goes first every time, not even close in some cases.
I've experienced similar to Stature over multiple seasons where I've picked first 90% of the time, out of many matches each season. And yes there is an advantage to picking second but not an insurmountable one, I still win more than I lose in spite of the skewed order.
Yes the probability of these long runs is not 0, yes 1 in a million/billion runs do happen but not this often to this many people and to the same people.
I don't think people are saying that kabam is out to get them, my account is rigged, they just want to know what the mechanism is, because it's not pure chance, and it's a reasonable question to ask.
Comments
There have been plenty of anecdotal reports where you are either placing first all the time or second all the time so expecting some clarification is not a reason to be made fun off.
The gap between ensuring 50% distribution and locking in players in their picks is enormous. I and several others are picking first almost 100% of the time. Whether deliberate or not, that is a rigged competition for us. We are paying the same for elder marks as everyone else, but being forced to play with a handicap.
yes its possible but its super super rare
and yes super super rare thing happens me daily. why? coz i m superman
not just me there are plenty supermans having this super super rare thing
All of these calculations assume that the next flip is truly independent of the previous outcomes. Even then the probability of getting that sequence in an unbiased system is vanishingly low. Multiple people generating those sequence is even lower.
Longer this happens, lower the likelihood that this is a truly random event. It is more likely that some players are just being screwed over.
i wouldn't have talked about this its repeating daily, if its just rng why there was no day that i had good rng? or kinda average rng?
When it happens to you, it seems like something is rigged, because you can’t comprehend how the mathematically impossible “whatever” hit you, but that’s how life works.
You either didn't read my reply to you or misunderstood it. Allow me to clear one thing up... I 100% agree with your math. But again you are equating PROBABILITY with POSSIBILITY.
Yes, according to the numbers there is an extremely low PROBABILITY that if 1000 people flip a coin 100 times each that tails will come up on every flip for every person. However that scenario is not IMPOSSIBLE. Since each flip is totally independent with absolutely no bearing or affect on any other flip past or future, it is totally POSSIBLE that every outcome is exactly the same. Are the odds (or probability) of that happening high? Absolutely not.
A simpler explanation...
Is it possible that the next girl I ask out will go on a date with me? Sure it's possible. Probable given my dry spell lately... very low. But the results of me asking the next girl out won't affect the results of the next one after that. And yes, that's why I play too much MCOC. I need something to do...
You need an alliance @TheCaptain412? You seem like a smart level headed kind of person.
Would be a far simpler approach from Kabam's end if the person who picks last, places first. As picking last AND placing 2nd are 2 massive advantages.
You're allowed to feel like it sucks and I for one am not going to tell you to not feel that way. You're entitled to feel and have your feelings. Nothing wrong with that.
daily or in every station or every farm ? since , its not impossible to have two headed calves in every farm right ?
i m not talking about just one day here , its consistently happening and has pattern thats why its not RANDOM.
i know there are equal amount of players who have consistently picking 2nd and they will not post about it
Probability (the likelihood of something happening) and possibility (something that may happen) are not the same thing. Yes two headed calves are rare, a low PROBABILTY occurrence. But just because you've never seen one doesn't mean the POSSIBILITY of one doesn't exist. Yup... highly improbable that every farm everywhere doesn't have a two headed calf. Doesn't mean that the possibility doesn't exist.
Two-headed calves are not impossible, even to have on every farm. They DO exist.
However, because of their extremely rare nature, so much so that every farm DOESN’T have one, they ARE mathematically improbable.
Is there more than one two-headed calf in the world right now? Probably. More than five? Possibly. More than a dozen? Unlikely, but still possible.
You obviously don’t grasp the basic fact that just because something happens to more than one person or to any kind of extreme, it still is not indicative of anything more than random chance.
since there is no official statement about how it works
no one is wrong
i will happily accept its its rng only. cox its its just rng then i can be lucky as well
If the team comes out and says this was random, that's fine I was unlucky. Until they don't the facts available suggest that it isn't random.
Something is making things skewed for certain people, whether it's something about their roster, their behaviour in banning, in accepting the match or whatever. The evidence is there that it's not just a 50% chance who goes first every time, not even close in some cases.
I've experienced similar to Stature over multiple seasons where I've picked first 90% of the time, out of many matches each season. And yes there is an advantage to picking second but not an insurmountable one, I still win more than I lose in spite of the skewed order.
Yes the probability of these long runs is not 0, yes 1 in a million/billion runs do happen but not this often to this many people and to the same people.
I don't think people are saying that kabam is out to get them, my account is rigged, they just want to know what the mechanism is, because it's not pure chance, and it's a reasonable question to ask.