Why not implement the Gatcha system to the Titan crystal? There are so many people who struggle to collect Titan shards, only to see the crystal stops on the worst characters in there 3/4 of the time.
That defeats the purpose of the titan, which is a glorified featured crystal.
There's a story in one of Danny Kahneman's books (The Undoing Project I think) about an experiment he used to run with his econ classes. He would tell the students to write a string 100 H and T on the chalkboard for 100 coin flips that they think represents a fair coin. Then actually flip a coin 100 times and record the results above or below the first 100 "flips". He would then leave the classroom, and then come back when they were done and tell them which one is the real coin and which is their heuristic version.
The way he did it was by looking for long strings of H and T. The one that students thought looked fair would always fail to account for the fact that in 100 flips you were overwhelmingly likely to see long strings of H or T in the true random sample. Randomness is much more clumpy than human heuristics think it should be.
There's a story in one of Danny Kahneman's books (The Undoing Project I think) about an experiment he used to run with his econ classes. He would tell the students to write a string 100 H and T on the chalkboard for 100 coin flips that they think represents a fair coin. Then actually flip a coin 100 times and record the results above or below the first 100 "flips". He would then leave the classroom, and then come back when they were done and tell them which one is the real coin and which is their heuristic version.
The way he did it was by looking for long strings of H and T. The one that students thought looked fair would always fail to account for the fact that in 100 flips you were overwhelmingly likely to see long strings of H or T in the true random sample. Randomness is much more clumpy than human heuristics think it should be.
Anyways, the Titan crystal is random.
Won't hurt you this time to post the stats like miike did last time. We can thow this alligation in the bin for next 2 years atleast. For reference:
There's a story in one of Danny Kahneman's books (The Undoing Project I think) about an experiment he used to run with his econ classes. He would tell the students to write a string 100 H and T on the chalkboard for 100 coin flips that they think represents a fair coin. Then actually flip a coin 100 times and record the results above or below the first 100 "flips". He would then leave the classroom, and then come back when they were done and tell them which one is the real coin and which is their heuristic version.
The way he did it was by looking for long strings of H and T. The one that students thought looked fair would always fail to account for the fact that in 100 flips you were overwhelmingly likely to see long strings of H or T in the true random sample. Randomness is much more clumpy than human heuristics think it should be.
Anyways, the Titan crystal is random.
Just don’t put Rhulk in the next Titan Crystal or a similar champion 😭
There's a story in one of Danny Kahneman's books (The Undoing Project I think) about an experiment he used to run with his econ classes. He would tell the students to write a string 100 H and T on the chalkboard for 100 coin flips that they think represents a fair coin. Then actually flip a coin 100 times and record the results above or below the first 100 "flips". He would then leave the classroom, and then come back when they were done and tell them which one is the real coin and which is their heuristic version.
The way he did it was by looking for long strings of H and T. The one that students thought looked fair would always fail to account for the fact that in 100 flips you were overwhelmingly likely to see long strings of H or T in the true random sample. Randomness is much more clumpy than human heuristics think it should be.
Anyways, the Titan crystal is random.
Just don’t put Rhulk in the next Titan Crystal or a similar champion 😭
What do you mean? He's the most OP science champ, can take winter soldier down in 22 secs 😭😭
@DNA3000 what are your thoughts on the Global Consciousness Project (GCP), which uses a global network of random number generators to explore the possibility that events eliciting widespread human emotion or attention might influence RNG ?
There's a story in one of Danny Kahneman's books (The Undoing Project I think) about an experiment he used to run with his econ classes. He would tell the students to write a string 100 H and T on the chalkboard for 100 coin flips that they think represents a fair coin. Then actually flip a coin 100 times and record the results above or below the first 100 "flips". He would then leave the classroom, and then come back when they were done and tell them which one is the real coin and which is their heuristic version.
The way he did it was by looking for long strings of H and T. The one that students thought looked fair would always fail to account for the fact that in 100 flips you were overwhelmingly likely to see long strings of H or T in the true random sample. Randomness is much more clumpy than human heuristics think it should be.
Anyways, the Titan crystal is random.
Won't hurt you this time to post the stats like miike did last time. We can thow this alligation in the bin for next 2 years atleast.
There's a problem with this, and it is that people will start to assume whenever Kabam doesn't release drop reports they have something to hide. But on the other hand, if Kabam sends out enough reports, sufficient navel-gazing will start to turn up statistical "anomalies." As I mentioned earlier and Crashed also mentions here, the big problem is most humans don't understand randomness enough to properly evaluate it. That is precisely why I believe there's no there, there, with regard to the GCP mentioned above. They are doing what the crystal conspiracy players are doing, just on a larger scale. They are looking for non-random behavior in random sequences, because they think there is such a thing as specific non-random behavior.
Which one is random, which one is not:
HTHHHTHTHH HHHHHHHHHH
Trick question: both show up equally often in random sequences. By definition, a genuinely random sequence will produce every possible sequence of ten Hs and Ts about equally often. You need context to determine if either one of those sequences is "non-random."
Show people enough random numbers, and they'll eventually find the non-randomness they are looking for. Randomness is a statistical property, not a localized one.
For years I have been keeping track of my arena crystal drops. Actual, individual drops. Here's four years of TB crystals, showing how many units I got per batch of TB crystals (20 crystals = one million BC).
Is that random or not? Suppose I wanted to prove it wasn't. Hmm, let's see what I can do here. Ah:
Here's the trend line for those drops. It drops from a bit higher than 2000 units per batch to about 1690 per batch. Does that prove crystals are dropping fewer units over time? An unscrupuloous person might try to make that case. But I happen to know the statistical average for arena crystals is 1875 per million BC (regardless of crystal type) so my very first recorded numbers just happened to be significantly above average. Meanwhile my most recent opening was significantly below average. Had I generated this chart just a couple weeks ago the difference would have been much lower, and without that initial lucky opening at the start it would have been even closer. Without those two data points, it looks like:
The difference is now is the average trendline goes from 1931 to about 1821. But even that is potentially cherry picking: I shouldn't be throwing any data points away, even if they seem out of the ordinary to me. Rather, I should analyze the data to see what impact precisely when I do the analysis affects the overall averages, using moving averages:
Now I can see that the ten batch moving average seems to randomly move up and down, roughly around an average just under 2000 units per batch. In fact, highlighting the 1875 unit average:
The moving average clearly moves above and below it, spending about as much time above as below. So when I do the analysis matters. If I'm careless or unscrupulous, I can just wait for the data to say what I want it to say, because being random it will eventually say anything I want it to say, if I focus on what I want and ignore the rest.
Data is great. But data tends not to convince the conspiratorial. They are the very people convinced the data will prove them right if only they look at it in just the right way, and eventually they find a way.
So the TLDR is in this thread is "Trust me bro, it's random", then Kabam releases an update mercy system to guarantee a drop after enough bad results.
Make of that what you will.
The TLDR is every time someone has made an assertion about the RNG that was actually testable they've turned out to be wrong, sometimes embarrassingly so. Trying to connect that to the crystal mercy system, a system that has been asked for many times over the years is ludicrous. Only a blatantly conspiratorial mind, someone looking for any excuse to take trivial shots, would do that.
This reminds me of back when people were complaining that there was not enough gold in the game for over a year, and when Kabam added gold to the game they claimed that see, they were right all along.
How wrong do you have to be in your life, that that's the sort of thing you take credit for, I wonder. That's the attitude of someone who can't even get the time of day right most of the time.
So the TLDR is in this thread is "Trust me bro, it's random", then Kabam releases an update mercy system to guarantee a drop after enough bad results.
Make of that what you will.
Again the real problem isn't the rng, it's the useless fluff they throw in to a premium crystal. I don't know why the community can't focus on the real issues smh.
There's a story in one of Danny Kahneman's books (The Undoing Project I think) about an experiment he used to run with his econ classes. He would tell the students to write a string 100 H and T on the chalkboard for 100 coin flips that they think represents a fair coin. Then actually flip a coin 100 times and record the results above or below the first 100 "flips". He would then leave the classroom, and then come back when they were done and tell them which one is the real coin and which is their heuristic version.
The way he did it was by looking for long strings of H and T. The one that students thought looked fair would always fail to account for the fact that in 100 flips you were overwhelmingly likely to see long strings of H or T in the true random sample. Randomness is much more clumpy than human heuristics think it should be.
Anyways, the Titan crystal is random.
Won't hurt you this time to post the stats like miike did last time. We can thow this alligation in the bin for next 2 years atleast.
Data is great. But data tends not to convince the conspiratorial. They are the very people convinced the data will prove them right if only they look at it in just the right way, and eventually they find a way.
Last time when stats were shared, it stopped the conspiracy theorists right then and there. Nothing more happened. It's the same thing. I'm not expecitng it. Just made a suggestion.
If the entire playerbase opens 100k titan crystals, I truly believe the results will be random and balanced out with such a large sample size
The problem lies with individual players not being able to open enough titan crystals to achieve that large sample size bcos shards are hard to come by
So results for players are often skewed and when battlegrounds depends on having that defender from a titan crystal, players get frustrated when they get 3 red hulks from 7 titan crystals
There isn't any solution to this problem actually, the RNG is still working for the entire playerbase but individual players get vastly different results from opening titan crystals
There was another post of a player who stated he recieved the wrong champ. A manthing when he saw another.
There was a copy if a reply from support that stated there were several game factors involved in champ selection not only the crystal being activated.
If that is true, that is what is making the rng appear to be off. There would be a tier system, a percentage to pull a tier then another to pull champ within the tier.
Built on the same tech as the premium crystal. A chance to pull different srar levels, then another at least one more roll of dice to get a champ
So the TLDR is in this thread is "Trust me bro, it's random", then Kabam releases an update mercy system to guarantee a drop after enough bad results.
Make of that what you will.
Again the real problem isn't the rng, it's the useless fluff they throw in to a premium crystal. I don't know why the community can't focus on the real issues smh.
Define useless fluff. The Titan is a mixture of 6 new, and the rest older. You can't make the rest all God Tier Champs. That's just not reasonable.
I agree. I had three duped champs when the crystal rotated. Since then I only got those three champ again and again. Everyone of the other 21 champs would be a win in comparison, but nooooo. That is not how Kabam so-called “rng” works.
RNG rigging threads pop up periodically, and it’s often with respect to crystals that have a broad range of crystal options.
The current Titan is a perfect example—people would love to grab Jessicas or Yelenas, for example, but get nauseous at the prospect of Rhulks.
What’s misunderstood is that MCoC’s version of randomness (and randomness in general) will more often than not produce bunches of the same result(s).
Few complain when that’s Bastion or Jessica or Okoye, but many complain when it’s Rhulk (Note: I hate to pick on Rhulk because he’s very decent, but he’s the obvious example here).
By my unofficial count, I’ve opened around 60 Titans since Spiral entered the crystal. She’s been in the better part of a year. And…I’ve never pulled her. Not once.
Is that a sign of crystal dysfunction? Nope—it’s just what I personally would consider *rotten* luck.
But that same *rotten* luck has netted me every single champ in the Titan since Spiral was added (with the exception of new adds Jessica, Yelena, Galan, and a Cyke dupe).
And several of those Titan champs I’ve pulled not just once but multiple times—some like Nefaria so often mine was easy to max sig with a handful of stones.
Bottom line: Crystals are disappointing. *Rotten* luck happens. But that’s more a sign of regular RNG function than dysfunction.
Comments
SirLoserBond takes another L
Go ahead, Do it.
The way he did it was by looking for long strings of H and T. The one that students thought looked fair would always fail to account for the fact that in 100 flips you were overwhelmingly likely to see long strings of H or T in the true random sample. Randomness is much more clumpy than human heuristics think it should be.
Anyways, the Titan crystal is random.
For reference:
Just don’t put Rhulk in the next Titan Crystal or a similar champion 😭
Which one is random, which one is not:
HTHHHTHTHH
HHHHHHHHHH
Trick question: both show up equally often in random sequences. By definition, a genuinely random sequence will produce every possible sequence of ten Hs and Ts about equally often. You need context to determine if either one of those sequences is "non-random."
Show people enough random numbers, and they'll eventually find the non-randomness they are looking for. Randomness is a statistical property, not a localized one.
For years I have been keeping track of my arena crystal drops. Actual, individual drops. Here's four years of TB crystals, showing how many units I got per batch of TB crystals (20 crystals = one million BC).
Is that random or not? Suppose I wanted to prove it wasn't. Hmm, let's see what I can do here. Ah:
Here's the trend line for those drops. It drops from a bit higher than 2000 units per batch to about 1690 per batch. Does that prove crystals are dropping fewer units over time? An unscrupuloous person might try to make that case. But I happen to know the statistical average for arena crystals is 1875 per million BC (regardless of crystal type) so my very first recorded numbers just happened to be significantly above average. Meanwhile my most recent opening was significantly below average. Had I generated this chart just a couple weeks ago the difference would have been much lower, and without that initial lucky opening at the start it would have been even closer. Without those two data points, it looks like:
The difference is now is the average trendline goes from 1931 to about 1821. But even that is potentially cherry picking: I shouldn't be throwing any data points away, even if they seem out of the ordinary to me. Rather, I should analyze the data to see what impact precisely when I do the analysis affects the overall averages, using moving averages:
Now I can see that the ten batch moving average seems to randomly move up and down, roughly around an average just under 2000 units per batch. In fact, highlighting the 1875 unit average:
The moving average clearly moves above and below it, spending about as much time above as below. So when I do the analysis matters. If I'm careless or unscrupulous, I can just wait for the data to say what I want it to say, because being random it will eventually say anything I want it to say, if I focus on what I want and ignore the rest.
Data is great. But data tends not to convince the conspiratorial. They are the very people convinced the data will prove them right if only they look at it in just the right way, and eventually they find a way.
Make of that what you will.
This reminds me of back when people were complaining that there was not enough gold in the game for over a year, and when Kabam added gold to the game they claimed that see, they were right all along.
How wrong do you have to be in your life, that that's the sort of thing you take credit for, I wonder. That's the attitude of someone who can't even get the time of day right most of the time.
I'm not expecitng it. Just made a suggestion.
The problem lies with individual players not being able to open enough titan crystals to achieve that large sample size bcos shards are hard to come by
So results for players are often skewed and when battlegrounds depends on having that defender from a titan crystal, players get frustrated when they get 3 red hulks from 7 titan crystals
There isn't any solution to this problem actually, the RNG is still working for the entire playerbase but individual players get vastly different results from opening titan crystals
My tin foil hat is on too... I pulled third tech 7* ag. I don't own the champs I want to use them on. Shocker and senti.
There was a copy if a reply from support that stated there were several game factors involved in champ selection not only the crystal being activated.
If that is true, that is what is making the rng appear to be off. There would be a tier system, a percentage to pull a tier then another to pull champ within the tier.
Built on the same tech as the premium crystal. A chance to pull different srar levels, then another at least one more roll of dice to get a champ
The current Titan is a perfect example—people would love to grab Jessicas or Yelenas, for example, but get nauseous at the prospect of Rhulks.
What’s misunderstood is that MCoC’s version of randomness (and randomness in general) will more often than not produce bunches of the same result(s).
Few complain when that’s Bastion or Jessica or Okoye, but many complain when it’s Rhulk (Note: I hate to pick on Rhulk because he’s very decent, but he’s the obvious example here).
By my unofficial count, I’ve opened around 60 Titans since Spiral entered the crystal. She’s been in the better part of a year. And…I’ve never pulled her. Not once.
Is that a sign of crystal dysfunction? Nope—it’s just what I personally would consider *rotten* luck.
But that same *rotten* luck has netted me every single champ in the Titan since Spiral was added (with the exception of new adds Jessica, Yelena, Galan, and a Cyke dupe).
And several of those Titan champs I’ve pulled not just once but multiple times—some like Nefaria so often mine was easy to max sig with a handful of stones.
Bottom line: Crystals are disappointing. *Rotten* luck happens. But that’s more a sign of regular RNG function than dysfunction.
Dr. Zola
Might as well rename the crystal to Guaranteed 7* Red Hulk Crystal
Gotten 3 red hulks from that crystal already