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Crazy odds or problem?

I purchased three of the Odin offers yesterday on my alt account to grow it some with 3 new 5*s. I had 3 already. But of the 3 crystals I opened I duplicated my captain America OG all 3 times. So not one new champ.

The odds for that to happen must be astronomical, I believe there was an issue with the basic crystals yesterday beyond the issue with the 5* Marvelous crystal.

When I send in a support ticket they respond with that’s perfectly normal and it is luck based, sorry.

We all know that’s a garbage/generic reply, right?

Thoughts?

Comments

  • SpeedbumpSpeedbump Posts: 1,450 ★★★
    Talk with google play app or apple, and send in a ticket with them. They may give you a refund.....
  • SassyMastySassyMasty Posts: 311
    It may just be odds... It seems impossible to tell. However, I'm sort of in the same boat: Every time I use a 5* crystal, the very next champion that I get from a 4* crystal is very often the champion that I got from the 5*. This has happened to me several times in a row to me now. For instance, the other day I pulled a 5* hela from the 5* basic, then went to open a 4* and got hela again.
  • MoshMosh Posts: 18
    Apple never does refunds in my experience. I haven’t even bothered Trying kn over a year.

    I’d rather them just remove two dupes and iso, and refund me 2 basic crystals. They know it isn’t supposed to happen like that. The odds are absurd for 1 dupe much less for 3 back to back.
  • iRetr0iRetr0 Posts: 1,251 ★★★★
    I had enough shards for a 4* crystal, got Cap WW2

    Then later in the day fully explored Act 3, opened the 4* crystal, guess what I got? CAP WW2!!!

    Just bad odds imo
  • QbdnfrhuQbdnfrhu Posts: 84
    I got Jane foster three times in a row
  • RichiesDad79RichiesDad79 Posts: 975 ★★★
    Seems like something is broken. There's no way.....
  • Panchulon21Panchulon21 Posts: 2,300 ★★★★★
    It’s not impossible, highly unlikely but not impossible. Sorry you had that bad of luck but I’ve seen it happen before. The odds are super low basically 1/65 per open. Sorry man
  • Aleks112358Aleks112358 Posts: 51
    Im assuming these are the basic 5* crystals.
    There are 92 champs in them.
    So P(captain america 3x) = 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92
    = 0.0000012842 = 0.00012842%
    That's almost like getting 4 goldpools from 4 pools gold crystals. The odds of that are so low that.... well, it should never really have happened.
  • MoshMosh Posts: 18
    Im assuming these are the basic 5* crystals.
    There are 92 champs in them.
    So P(captain america 3x) = 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92
    = 0.0000012842 = 0.00012842%
    That's almost like getting 4 goldpools from 4 pools gold crystals. The odds of that are so low that.... well, it should never really have happened.

    Totally agree, yet Kabam believes it to be “normal”.. no, they just don’t care when their stuff breaks, only the whales are worthy of any form of help when there is an obvious error.

  • OmniOmni Posts: 574 ★★★
    edited July 2018
    It’s happened to other people much more than it should. Begs the question if drop rates are actually accurate or were just placed to appease us...

    I’ve pulled the same champ 3 times in a row from premiums
  • 1TapTakeANap1TapTakeANap Posts: 60
    This could very well be deemed as false advertising if proven truthful and if that happens it will allow a hefty amount of people to refund transactions for basically anything related to MCOC.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 14,686 Guardian
    Im assuming these are the basic 5* crystals.
    There are 92 champs in them.
    So P(captain america 3x) = 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92
    = 0.0000012842 = 0.00012842%
    That's almost like getting 4 goldpools from 4 pools gold crystals. The odds of that are so low that.... well, it should never really have happened.

    Except the first one could have been any champ: the significance here is almost certainly that the pull was three identical champs in a row, not three Captain Americas. The odds of that happening are one in 8464 (1/92 x 1/92). That's rare, but not astronomically rare.

    You can't just compute the odds of three specific champions happening in sequence, because the odds of any sequence of three specific champions are exactly the same. The last three 5* basic champs I pulled were Red Hulk, MODOK, and BPCW. The odds of that specific sequence occurring is equally rare: 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92. But there's no significance to that sequence. Had I specifically wanted that specific sequence in that order prior to opening it and then got it, then the odds would have been astronomically high against that happening.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 14,686 Guardian
    Omni wrote: »
    It’s happened to other people much more than it should. Begs the question if drop rates are actually accurate or were just placed to appease us...

    I’ve pulled the same champ 3 times in a row from premiums

    If it was a question of drop rates, then everyone should be getting not just multiples, but the *same* multiples and that doesn't happen. It is an open question as to whether the system has a correlation flaw in its lootbox code. Such a thing could cause duplicates to happen more often than random chance would predict, but which champions were duplicated at any moment in time would still be distributed randomly, and every champ would drop equally often.

    I have often wondered if such a bug exists, because I have suspicions, but insufficient data to back those up statistically.
  • DankestChefDankestChef Posts: 420 ★★★
    edited July 2018
    doesn't sound possible. any screenshot/proof?
  • MoshMosh Posts: 18
    72tr7gjbvb0b.png
    the third is above the kingpin and a 5* rocket someone else opened.
  • MoshMosh Posts: 18
    s5xaz3ft6zo1.png
  • Noob2435Noob2435 Posts: 627 ★★★
    That's awful
  • New_Noob168New_Noob168 Posts: 1,478 ★★★★
    You guys may be fooled into thinking it’s random. It isn’t
  • RafikiiRafikii Posts: 239
    okay, maybe you hit the jack pot tho. just with incorrect symbols.
    What if all 3 were blade, im sure you wouldnt have complained then.
    You just got unlucky. Unlucky as it can get tbh, but, unlucky nevertheless
  • DankestChefDankestChef Posts: 420 ★★★
    Holy **** that's crazy. I'm sorry man
  • MoshMosh Posts: 18
    Rafikii wrote: »
    okay, maybe you hit the jack pot tho. just with incorrect symbols.
    What if all 3 were blade, im sure you wouldnt have complained then.
    You just got unlucky. Unlucky as it can get tbh, but, unlucky nevertheless

    1 blade dupe is plenty, still two wasted crystals.. no one cares about prestige on a level 32 acct either. Several new champs is the only point to buy those offers at this level. Wether they end up on defense or offense.
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