Dormammu cutoff predictions
DoctorofEvil
Member Posts: 217 ★
I'd Dr Voodoo went for around 6 million and Red Hood for around 4.2 million I'd think 5 million would be likely. What are your predictions? And when will the 6 star announcement lead to a long term plunge in arena cutoffs for the four stars?
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If I could see into the future I'd be counting my Powerball winnings tomorrow morning.
I'd say go for 5.5 next round.
Partly due to t4b, but that has had less of an affect lately due to how much people's rosters have improved over time.
Good luck to all, be well.
I don't see how T4B has such a impact on arena. The guys you are getting 6.5-8 mil can get the milestone in 30-40 fights. I think the ban from the exploit dropped scores and the 6* announcement mightve played into that as well. At the same time war will be down w/ 30 min AQ timers so I think the score should remain the same or at most 5.5.
http://mbch.guide/en/arenas/proxodnye-ochki-na-nagrady-po-rangu/
just foi :-)
It doesn't.
This time around #getinthepool helped out a lot. About 141,535 people qualified for rank rewards which means 14,153 people got the basic champ. The number of people has a huge effect on what the cutoff score ends up being partially because of course if more people get him the cutoff score will be lower, but also because of how people on average tend to put effort into scoring. There's actually a strong general consensus on how much a champion will score and people tend to aim for a number high enough to win him if they can. If they think they can't make it they tend to give up sooner. That causes scores to drop faster at a certain point. If people guess wrong and more people jump in the pool, the cutoff score can drop fast.
Here's Dormammu, round one:
Notice the scores drop fast from the top and then level off. They drop slowly until about 6 million-ish, and then plummet. If only 10,000 people got Dormammu the cutoff would have been over 6 million. But at 14k you can see you're in the steep downslide of scoring. The difference between 10k and 11k is not huge, but between 12k and 13k it is much bigger, and between 13k and 14k bigger still.
That's why how many people rank up often has a huge impact on scoring.
That curve is a signal of psychology: how people are statistically guessing cutoffs and either pushing harder if they think they can get over the hump or coasting or giving up if they think they won't. Here's Gwenpool round one:
Here's Hyperion round one:
You can see across the top 20,000 grinders or so how they are signalling their approximate guesswork within the scoring data.
One interesting piece of data I've seen: people collectively were in greater agreement about how Hyperion and Gwenpool would score than Dormammu. The first flat part of the curve was more slanted downward for Dormammu than the other two, suggesting less agreement among grinders in how much effort they thought they would need.