Black ISO Market update - quick check
DroidDoes
Member Posts: 411 ★★
Saw the post; glad to see this is being updated! 🥳 just wanted to double-check, you mean the refresh on Monday, February 17, not the 19th, correct?
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For example, lengendary crystal is new...
It would be easier to read !
(Could you please create a new thread like the one we had during the maintenance please ? It was really appreciated !)
However, 4* champs generate 5* shards on duplication. 275, plus another 275 (most of the time) if you get a max sig crystal. Suppose you're someone that has a lot of max sig 4* champs so it is likely you'd get 550 shards per 4* most of the time. In that case the 21 4* champs would generate 11500 5* shards, which is a whole 5* basic crystal plus change.
So someone buying the legendary crystal ten times would expect to get the equivalent value of about 8500 5* shards, not counting all the extra resources you'd get from duplicating all those 4* champs (ISO, gold), over and above someone that chose to skip it and just buy 4* champs. The value would be somewhat higher for a player with an undeveloped 4* roster (because they would get fewer 5* shards for every 4* pull).
But compared to someone with a well developed 4* roster, the legendary crystal in an approximate sense generates one extra 5* champion out of every twelve purchases. If that's available once every two weeks, that would be a 5* champ about every six months. That seems a little low to me.
Another way to look at it is to compare the legendary crystal with another Sigil store option: converting 4* shards into 5* shards directly. We can buy 1000 5* shards for 2000 4* shards which means we can (eventually) directly convert 20000 4* shards into a 5* champ.
Again, just to make the numbers round for easy viewing, 100k 4* shards can become five 5* champs or 20 legendary crystals which become (on average) 16 4* champs and 4 5* champs. It takes between 18 and 36 4* dups to get enough shards for a 5* champ, so that means the legendary crystals actually generate fewer 5* champs over time than the 1000 5* shard conversion does. Unless you really need the gold and ISO from the 4* dups, the 1000 5* shard conversion is better.
@Kabam Miike was this the intent of the Legendary crystal Sigil offer? It is worth slightly more than the 5000 4* shards it costs, but less than the 1000 5* shard offer that already exists in the Sigil. Of course, you can buy them both so buying both is better than only buying one, but was the intent for the Legendary crystal value to be that low?
Firstly, for me a 4* is worth 550 5* shards. Iso and gold hold no weight. The market offers an increased value for what you buy, except for the legendary.
1) To put it simply. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If this was an equation (which it’s not) the value is closer to 1.75 birds in the bush, a more unfavorable outcome.
2) Relating to 20% chance, you can easily and repeatedly come out with the short end of this. The old featured 5* were believed to be a 20-25% chance, I opened 14 before hitting those odds on my last 2 ever features so I was 1/8 != 1/5. My odds with legendary crystals are a similar or worse experience.
To equate the 20% chance to in game everyday terms it’s the same odds of an awakened Voodoo placing a Loa on the opponent. Players are likely aware how frustrating this can be if you fail the average when relying on those odds. Imagine getting that chance to place a Loa twice a month with a price tag.
2. Actual outcomes can and will be better or worse, but that's the point to calculating expected average value. We do this all the time in the real world: it is how we calculate the value of insurance, the value of our investments, the value of all real world commodities that have situational value. I see no reason to not use the universally accepted definition of expected average value, but if you value crystals differently, like if you're extremely and disproportionately risk averse, then you are free to perform an alternate calculation instead.
However, if I'm designing a game and a game economy, I would have to be convinced to use any other definition when evaluating value, and it would have to be extremely situationally precise to convince me.
The flip side massively risk-averse calculation says that for the Legendary crystal to break even with 5000 4* shard cost (1-n) * 550 + n * 10000 = 1375; n = 11/126 ~= 0.087. Or alternatively, for the Legendary crystal to break even with its costs assuming you value a 4* champ as basically 550 5* shards, you'd have to pull a 5* champ about once out of every 11 openings.
So if you believe your luck is so bad that over the long haul you're going to get less than one 5* champ out of every eleven openings, in a crystal with a one in five chance of pulling a 5* champ, then the Legendary crystal is not worth the shards. If you believe your luck will average out to better than that, the Legendary crystal is worth more than the shards you put into them.
I’m not risk adverse at all, I however prefer to mitigate that risk and not gamble against highly unfavorable odds.
"@DNA3000 as you detailed it accurately, the 2 offers are quite similar in the amount of 4-Star shards it requires to have a 5-Star, for *cavalier players*. The offer is also available for Uncollected players, and for them they only get 750 5-Star shards for their 2.000 4-Star shards, making the Legendary Crystal a way better deal if they focus only on 5-Star Heroes
What you get in those 2 offers for 100.000 4-Star shards is as follow:
Uncollected: 750 5-Star shards:
-37.500 5-Star Shards
Cavalier : 1.000 5-Star shards:
- 50.000 5-Star Shards
1 Legendary Crystal:
- 4 5-Star Heroes
-16 4-Star Heroes
Of course the best would be to buy both offers to maximize the 5-Star shards you get. But if you can't you need to make a choice. Are you willing to trade those 16 4-Star Heroes, the Gold and ISO for another 5-Star Hero?
The Legendary is by itself is a better value, but there is some randomness to it. Remember that over 100k 4-Star shards some players may pull 10 5-Star heroes.
Are you feeling lucky?"
5k 4* shards at best will get you 1.1k 5* shards plus iso and or 2k 5* shards in the Black iso store which already covers the 20% of a 5* crystal.
In my eyes 3k is the perfect amount but that’s just me,
Second, there seems to be some misunderstanding of what "expected average value is." It is not synonymous with "what I would pay." Generally, there is a premium placed on risk relative to certain outcomes. But since everyone's risk premium is different, the expected average value is used to determine the valuation floor - the point where risk premiums are applied.
In other words, almost no one says "the average adjusted value of Y is X, so I'll pay X." Instead, they generally say "the average adjusted value of Y is X, so to get me to buy Y you'll have to sell it for something less than X since the actual value of Y is variable. How much less depends on who you're talking to.
However, even for me calculating the value of a Legendary crystal using Black-Scholes is going a bit too far.
The *average* case of the Legendary crystal is not better value specifically for those players, as the designer's numbers agree with mine and confirm that. It will sometimes be better and sometimes worse, but in the average case for the crystal for Cavalier players with maxed out 4* rosters it will be worse in terms of 5* champions. And usually risk and randomness come with a premium not a penalty.
If we reduce the cost of the Legendary crystal specifically for Cavalier players from 5000 4* shards to 4400 4* shards, then the numbers work out for the Legendary crystal to be comparable to and generally slightly better than the 5* conversion even for Cavalier players with not-maxed 4* rosters. It seems to be a reasonable change, as it makes the crystal slightly cheaper for Cavalier players giving them a slight benefit, and it improves the value of the crystal just enough to make it not worse than the 5* conversion, which it shouldn't be since the crystal is random and thus contains risk, which should offer a premium in value for that risk.