What are you saying? The top prize of a cavalier crystal is a 6* and your chance at getting a 6* remains the same. It's just that there is an included chance in that 1% to get a nexus 6* instead of just a random 6*. How is that a joke?
For those who don't buy crystals anyway , it's inconsequential. But for those who do , and manage to snag 6*s(I hate you) it's a good buff.
I think it's either 0.8% chance for a 6* OR 0.2% chance for a nexus.
I don't think you can add them together and say it's a 1% chance to get either.
This is a point of confusion among people who do not understand probability, and only know the calculations but not the basis for them. Sometimes you can add, sometimes you cannot. It comes down to independent odds. If two odds are dependent and mutually exclusive, you can add (in fact, this is basically a restatement of the Fundamental Counting Principle of probability). But if the odds are independent, you cannot.
Consider a coin flip. There's a 50% chance of heads, 50% chance of tails. The odds of getting either a head or a tail is 100%, 50% + 50%. Of course. But why can you add them? Because the odds of getting heads is not completely independent of the odds of getting tails. Instead, they are mutually exclusive: you can only get heads or tails but not both. So there are only two possibilities: Heads or Tails.
But suppose you were to apply to college, and you applied to two colleges A and B. And suppose you were told you had a 50% chance to be accepted to A, and also a 50% chance to be accepted to B. Does that mean your odds of being accepted to college are 100%, 50 + 50%? No, because those are not mutually exclusive events. There are four possibilities: you get accepted to A, you get accepted to B, you get accepted to both, you get accepted to neither. Adding the two double counts some of the possibilities. Your 50% chance to be accepted into A "includes" some of the chance to get accepted into B, because the chance to get accepted into A but not B, plus the chance to get accepted to A and B, must be 50% (that's the odds of getting into A at all).
In this case, the odds are mutually exclusive. There's no chance of getting a 6* basic AND also a 6* Nexus. So the total odds of getting either is the sum of both.
@DNA3000 Ok confusing here... Because when you spin, the 1 crystal can either get a 6* or a nexus or something else. You can't get both and there is a chance of getting something else? So isn't this like the college example 🤔
What are you saying? The top prize of a cavalier crystal is a 6* and your chance at getting a 6* remains the same. It's just that there is an included chance in that 1% to get a nexus 6* instead of just a random 6*. How is that a joke?
For those who don't buy crystals anyway , it's inconsequential. But for those who do , and manage to snag 6*s(I hate you) it's a good buff.
I think it's either 0.8% chance for a 6* OR 0.2% chance for a nexus.
I don't think you can add them together and say it's a 1% chance to get either.
This is a point of confusion among people who do not understand probability, and only know the calculations but not the basis for them. Sometimes you can add, sometimes you cannot. It comes down to independent odds. If two odds are dependent and mutually exclusive, you can add (in fact, this is basically a restatement of the Fundamental Counting Principle of probability). But if the odds are independent, you cannot.
Consider a coin flip. There's a 50% chance of heads, 50% chance of tails. The odds of getting either a head or a tail is 100%, 50% + 50%. Of course. But why can you add them? Because the odds of getting heads is not completely independent of the odds of getting tails. Instead, they are mutually exclusive: you can only get heads or tails but not both. So there are only two possibilities: Heads or Tails.
But suppose you were to apply to college, and you applied to two colleges A and B. And suppose you were told you had a 50% chance to be accepted to A, and also a 50% chance to be accepted to B. Does that mean your odds of being accepted to college are 100%, 50 + 50%? No, because those are not mutually exclusive events. There are four possibilities: you get accepted to A, you get accepted to B, you get accepted to both, you get accepted to neither. Adding the two double counts some of the possibilities. Your 50% chance to be accepted into A "includes" some of the chance to get accepted into B, because the chance to get accepted into A but not B, plus the chance to get accepted to A and B, must be 50% (that's the odds of getting into A at all).
In this case, the odds are mutually exclusive. There's no chance of getting a 6* basic AND also a 6* Nexus. So the total odds of getting either is the sum of both.
@DNA3000 Ok confusing here... Because when you spin, the 1 crystal can either get a 6* or a nexus or something else. You can't get both and there is a chance of getting something else? So isn't this like the college example 🤔
The exact opposite. In the college example, you can get into one or the other or both (or neither), right? But with the Cavalier crystal, do you think you can get one or the other or both the basic drop and the Nexus crystal?
Let's imagine the Cav crystal is one of those giant wheels you spin to get a reward. 1% of the wheel is colored green and represents the 6* drop. Kabam is changing the wheel so that 20% of that green slice is now colored yellow, and represents the 6* nexus. Now, what is the odds of getting the Nexus? 0.2%. What's the odds of getting the 6* basic? Well, the green slice used to be 1% of the wheel, and now it is 1% - 0.2% = 0.8%, so the odds of getting 6* basic is now 0.8%. The odds of getting a 6* champion at all is still 1%, because that slice of the wheel is still the same size: it is the green slice plus the yellow slice.
If you think about it this way, you can actually see what the real difference between the college example and the Cav crystal is. For the Cav crystal, you're spinning once. Whereever the wheel stops, that's what you get. So the odds of any particular thing turning up is the same as just asking what percentage of the wheel is that color. But in the college example, you're spinning twice: once for college A, and once for college B. They are independent.
To *simulate* that with just one spin, you'd have to color half the wheel color A and half color B. But if you color half the wheel A and the other completely separate half B, then you have a wheel where the odds of getting both A and B is zero. But you know that's wrong: there has to be some chance of A accepting you and B accepting you. So in this wheel, the colors have to overlap. But if they overlap in one part of the wheel, they won't completely cover the wheel anymore. So the odds of getting into college, which is asking the same question as "how much of the wheel has at least one of those colors" isn't 100%. You can't add them, because they overlap.
What are you saying? The top prize of a cavalier crystal is a 6* and your chance at getting a 6* remains the same. It's just that there is an included chance in that 1% to get a nexus 6* instead of just a random 6*. How is that a joke?
For those who don't buy crystals anyway , it's inconsequential. But for those who do , and manage to snag 6*s(I hate you) it's a good buff.
I think it's either 0.8% chance for a 6* OR 0.2% chance for a nexus.
I don't think you can add them together and say it's a 1% chance to get either.
This is a point of confusion among people who do not understand probability, and only know the calculations but not the basis for them. Sometimes you can add, sometimes you cannot. It comes down to independent odds. If two odds are dependent and mutually exclusive, you can add (in fact, this is basically a restatement of the Fundamental Counting Principle of probability). But if the odds are independent, you cannot.
Consider a coin flip. There's a 50% chance of heads, 50% chance of tails. The odds of getting either a head or a tail is 100%, 50% + 50%. Of course. But why can you add them? Because the odds of getting heads is not completely independent of the odds of getting tails. Instead, they are mutually exclusive: you can only get heads or tails but not both. So there are only two possibilities: Heads or Tails.
But suppose you were to apply to college, and you applied to two colleges A and B. And suppose you were told you had a 50% chance to be accepted to A, and also a 50% chance to be accepted to B. Does that mean your odds of being accepted to college are 100%, 50 + 50%? No, because those are not mutually exclusive events. There are four possibilities: you get accepted to A, you get accepted to B, you get accepted to both, you get accepted to neither. Adding the two double counts some of the possibilities. Your 50% chance to be accepted into A "includes" some of the chance to get accepted into B, because the chance to get accepted into A but not B, plus the chance to get accepted to A and B, must be 50% (that's the odds of getting into A at all).
In this case, the odds are mutually exclusive. There's no chance of getting a 6* basic AND also a 6* Nexus. So the total odds of getting either is the sum of both.
Very well said, that’s a perfect way to explain it.
What are you saying? The top prize of a cavalier crystal is a 6* and your chance at getting a 6* remains the same. It's just that there is an included chance in that 1% to get a nexus 6* instead of just a random 6*. How is that a joke?
For those who don't buy crystals anyway , it's inconsequential. But for those who do , and manage to snag 6*s(I hate you) it's a good buff.
I think it's either 0.8% chance for a 6* OR 0.2% chance for a nexus.
I don't think you can add them together and say it's a 1% chance to get either.
This is a point of confusion among people who do not understand probability, and only know the calculations but not the basis for them. Sometimes you can add, sometimes you cannot. It comes down to independent odds. If two odds are dependent and mutually exclusive, you can add (in fact, this is basically a restatement of the Fundamental Counting Principle of probability). But if the odds are independent, you cannot.
Consider a coin flip. There's a 50% chance of heads, 50% chance of tails. The odds of getting either a head or a tail is 100%, 50% + 50%. Of course. But why can you add them? Because the odds of getting heads is not completely independent of the odds of getting tails. Instead, they are mutually exclusive: you can only get heads or tails but not both. So there are only two possibilities: Heads or Tails.
But suppose you were to apply to college, and you applied to two colleges A and B. And suppose you were told you had a 50% chance to be accepted to A, and also a 50% chance to be accepted to B. Does that mean your odds of being accepted to college are 100%, 50 + 50%? No, because those are not mutually exclusive events. There are four possibilities: you get accepted to A, you get accepted to B, you get accepted to both, you get accepted to neither. Adding the two double counts some of the possibilities. Your 50% chance to be accepted into A "includes" some of the chance to get accepted into B, because the chance to get accepted into A but not B, plus the chance to get accepted to A and B, must be 50% (that's the odds of getting into A at all).
In this case, the odds are mutually exclusive. There's no chance of getting a 6* basic AND also a 6* Nexus. So the total odds of getting either is the sum of both.
@DNA3000 Ok confusing here... Because when you spin, the 1 crystal can either get a 6* or a nexus or something else. You can't get both and there is a chance of getting something else? So isn't this like the college example 🤔
The exact opposite. In the college example, you can get into one or the other or both (or neither), right? But with the Cavalier crystal, do you think you can get one or the other or both the basic drop and the Nexus crystal?
Let's imagine the Cav crystal is one of those giant wheels you spin to get a reward. 1% of the wheel is colored green and represents the 6* drop. Kabam is changing the wheel so that 20% of that green slice is now colored yellow, and represents the 6* nexus. Now, what is the odds of getting the Nexus? 0.2%. What's the odds of getting the 6* basic? Well, the green slice used to be 1% of the wheel, and now it is 1% - 0.2% = 0.8%, so the odds of getting 6* basic is now 0.8%. The odds of getting a 6* champion at all is still 1%, because that slice of the wheel is still the same size: it is the green slice plus the yellow slice.
If you think about it this way, you can actually see what the real difference between the college example and the Cav crystal is. For the Cav crystal, you're spinning once. Whereever the wheel stops, that's what you get. So the odds of any particular thing turning up is the same as just asking what percentage of the wheel is that color. But in the college example, you're spinning twice: once for college A, and once for college B. They are independent.
To *simulate* that with just one spin, you'd have to color half the wheel color A and half color B. But if you color half the wheel A and the other completely separate half B, then you have a wheel where the odds of getting both A and B is zero. But you know that's wrong: there has to be some chance of A accepting you and B accepting you. So in this wheel, the colors have to overlap. But if they overlap in one part of the wheel, they won't completely cover the wheel anymore. So the odds of getting into college, which is asking the same question as "how much of the wheel has at least one of those colors" isn't 100%. You can't add them, because they overlap.
What are you saying? The top prize of a cavalier crystal is a 6* and your chance at getting a 6* remains the same. It's just that there is an included chance in that 1% to get a nexus 6* instead of just a random 6*. How is that a joke?
For those who don't buy crystals anyway , it's inconsequential. But for those who do , and manage to snag 6*s(I hate you) it's a good buff.
I think it's either 0.8% chance for a 6* OR 0.2% chance for a nexus.
I don't think you can add them together and say it's a 1% chance to get either.
This is nonsense. The chance of getting a non nexus 6* is lower but the chance of getting a 6* is exactly the same. But some of the time that 6* will be a nexus. It's a 1% chance to get a 6*
This is probably a silly question, but when I just pop these crystals instead of spinning will a nexus crystal just appear in the screen along with the champs I pull? I’m more curious about these in the PHCs as there’s virtually no shot I pull a nexus from a cav crystal
This is probably a silly question, but when I just pop these crystals instead of spinning will a nexus crystal just appear in the screen along with the champs I pull? I’m more curious about these in the PHCs as there’s virtually no shot I pull a nexus from a cav crystal
i assume it will show the four champs on the screen to show what you got, and then you will get a new screen on top for an option to pick between 3 champs
This is probably a silly question, but when I just pop these crystals instead of spinning will a nexus crystal just appear in the screen along with the champs I pull? I’m more curious about these in the PHCs as there’s virtually no shot I pull a nexus from a cav crystal
i assume it will show the four champs on the screen to show what you got, and then you will get a new screen on top for an option to pick between 3 champs
I believe it will drop a Nexus crystal into your inventory. The issue here is that since you can open multiple crystals simultaneously with a ten pop, even though the odds are slim a player could find themselves landing on multiple Nexus crystals and then they would be stuck going through them all - without necessarily even knowing how many of them were even coming up. It could also make the game client wonky if it got stuck opening Nexus crystals repeatedly.
This sucks. Sure boys a 1% chance stays the same on paper but a computer sees it as a 5th variable per roll. So now that 1% chance you had out of 4 total variables just droped to .8 out of 5 variables. Its a decrease. Your math doesnt check out because you are not thinking correctly. Every roll now the algo will run 5 variables at the lower rates!
This is probably a silly question, but when I just pop these crystals instead of spinning will a nexus crystal just appear in the screen along with the champs I pull? I’m more curious about these in the PHCs as there’s virtually no shot I pull a nexus from a cav crystal
i assume it will show the four champs on the screen to show what you got, and then you will get a new screen on top for an option to pick between 3 champs
I believe it will drop a Nexus crystal into your inventory. The issue here is that since you can open multiple crystals simultaneously with a ten pop, even though the odds are slim a player could find themselves landing on multiple Nexus crystals and then they would be stuck going through them all - without necessarily even knowing how many of them were even coming up. It could also make the game client wonky if it got stuck opening Nexus crystals repeatedly.
yeah that makes more sense but it feels kinda clunky to me
This sucks. Sure boys a 1% chance stays the same on paper but a computer sees it as a 5th variable per roll. So now that 1% chance you had out of 4 total variables just droped to .8 out of 5 variables. Its a decrease. Your math doesnt check out because you are not thinking correctly. Every roll now the algo will run 5 variables at the lower rates!
This is not at all how it works considering every crystal opened is running it's own probability. It's still the same 1% chance (1/100) to get a 6*.
It's now adding the chance to grab a 6* Nexus when rolling and hitting that 1/100 probability.
This is a great change to people who open Cav crystals or manage to get lucky. It's increased odds at selecting something you want, instead of getting handed a 6* Cyclops. There is literally no complaint to this, no clue what people are upset for. Great change when you actually understand what's happening here.
Comments
Let's imagine the Cav crystal is one of those giant wheels you spin to get a reward. 1% of the wheel is colored green and represents the 6* drop. Kabam is changing the wheel so that 20% of that green slice is now colored yellow, and represents the 6* nexus. Now, what is the odds of getting the Nexus? 0.2%. What's the odds of getting the 6* basic? Well, the green slice used to be 1% of the wheel, and now it is 1% - 0.2% = 0.8%, so the odds of getting 6* basic is now 0.8%. The odds of getting a 6* champion at all is still 1%, because that slice of the wheel is still the same size: it is the green slice plus the yellow slice.
If you think about it this way, you can actually see what the real difference between the college example and the Cav crystal is. For the Cav crystal, you're spinning once. Whereever the wheel stops, that's what you get. So the odds of any particular thing turning up is the same as just asking what percentage of the wheel is that color. But in the college example, you're spinning twice: once for college A, and once for college B. They are independent.
To *simulate* that with just one spin, you'd have to color half the wheel color A and half color B. But if you color half the wheel A and the other completely separate half B, then you have a wheel where the odds of getting both A and B is zero. But you know that's wrong: there has to be some chance of A accepting you and B accepting you. So in this wheel, the colors have to overlap. But if they overlap in one part of the wheel, they won't completely cover the wheel anymore. So the odds of getting into college, which is asking the same question as "how much of the wheel has at least one of those colors" isn't 100%. You can't add them, because they overlap.
It's now adding the chance to grab a 6* Nexus when rolling and hitting that 1/100 probability.
This is a great change to people who open Cav crystals or manage to get lucky. It's increased odds at selecting something you want, instead of getting handed a 6* Cyclops. There is literally no complaint to this, no clue what people are upset for. Great change when you actually understand what's happening here.