I know it’s random, but I’ve never seen it go 3 days without one. I’m just wondering if they got rid of them or are vamping up the rewards like Quest Completion
It may have been removed at cavalier+. Reddit post that lower achievement players get class advancement. Someone posted here that this was being removed, during the server meltdown summer 2020. Possible partial accuracy
I cant find the post from years ago, but solo events were selected like this:
Randomly select 1 event that hasn't occurred in the last 6 selections. Which basically was a 1/12 shot at the eligible events. There are 6 class advancement events. of the 12.
Assuming the "last 6" were reset when the event changed and that there are still only 18 events, the odds of no class advancement events appearing in the first 12 is roughly .08%.
I don't think it is unwarranted to question if something has changed or if an error is occurring. Would love for @DNA3000 to check my math here, but something is changed/wrong.
@SummonerNR they already explained in the announcement before the new rewards came out that the Solo Event Quest Completion event won’t start until next month’s EQ cuz it will include extra points for UC and Cav difficulties
I maintain this is not “fixed”. The pool of events now has multiple possible combat events for each class (light ending, medium ending sp1 sp2 etc). This making the odds of class advancement being selected very low. I don’t think anyone wants a 1/7 shot of any class advancement being selected, which is roughly the odds based on an educated guess.
I think I figured it out. It’s not that Class Advancement events had gone away, it’s that the Sp2 Class Combat and Medium attack Class Combat events are considered 2 different events so instead of there just being 6 different class combat events, now there’s probably like 36 because of all the different attack bonuses. So there’s a 6x higher chance for a class combat event to show up than the Class Advancement and Class Arena Win events
I cant find the post from years ago, but solo events were selected like this:
Randomly select 1 event that hasn't occurred in the last 6 selections. Which basically was a 1/12 shot at the eligible events. There are 6 class advancement events. of the 12.
Assuming the "last 6" were reset when the event changed and that there are still only 18 events, the odds of no class advancement events appearing in the first 12 is roughly .08%.
I don't think it is unwarranted to question if something has changed or if an error is occurring. Would love for @DNA3000 to check my math here, but something is changed/wrong.
I'm assuming the math you were doing was to compute the odds of not pulling one of six possible events from a total set of 18, assuming that as each event is pulled it cannot be pulled again within the next six pulls. If so, then the odds of not pulling the desired six out of eighteen total is calculated by multiplying the odds of the first pull not being one of the six, which is 12/18, followed by the odds of the next one missing which is 11/17 (because you cannot pull that first one again, so there's 17 possibilities and 6 are the ones you're looking for, so there are 11 that miss), and so on. 12/18 * 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 * 8/14 * 7/13 for the first six pulls. After that, the odds of continuing to miss are 6/12 for ever pull after that, because there will always be six options that are disqualified (they cannot repeat within the window) and six options you want and six you don't want of the remainder. So 12/18 * 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 * 8/14 * 7/13 * (6/12)^6. That comes out to be about 0.07777% or about 0.08%. So that agrees with your calculations.
However, I suspect @Weaksauce_1 may be onto something. If in fact the combat events now comprmise 36 of all the possibilities instead of six of them, that would imply there are now something like 48 possibilities. In that case, the same calculation above makes the odds of not seeing advancements events 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 * 39/45 * 38/44 * 37/43 * (36/42)^6 ~= 0.1695 or about 17%. That's not terribly unlikely.
I cant find the post from years ago, but solo events were selected like this:
Randomly select 1 event that hasn't occurred in the last 6 selections. Which basically was a 1/12 shot at the eligible events. There are 6 class advancement events. of the 12.
Assuming the "last 6" were reset when the event changed and that there are still only 18 events, the odds of no class advancement events appearing in the first 12 is roughly .08%.
I don't think it is unwarranted to question if something has changed or if an error is occurring. Would love for @DNA3000 to check my math here, but something is changed/wrong.
I'm assuming the math you were doing was to compute the odds of not pulling one of six possible events from a total set of 18, assuming that as each event is pulled it cannot be pulled again within the next six pulls. If so, then the odds of not pulling the desired six out of eighteen total is calculated by multiplying the odds of the first pull not being one of the six, which is 12/18, followed by the odds of the next one missing which is 11/17 (because you cannot pull that first one again, so there's 17 possibilities and 6 are the ones you're looking for, so there are 11 that miss), and so on. 12/18 * 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 * 8/14 * 7/13 for the first six pulls. After that, the odds of continuing to miss are 6/12 for ever pull after that, because there will always be six options that are disqualified (they cannot repeat within the window) and six options you want and six you don't want of the remainder. So 12/18 * 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 * 8/14 * 7/13 * (6/12)^6. That comes out to be about 0.07777% or about 0.08%. So that agrees with your calculations.
However, I suspect @Weaksauce_1 may be onto something. If in fact the combat events now comprmise 36 of all the possibilities instead of six of them, that would imply there are now something like 48 possibilities. In that case, the same calculation above makes the odds of not seeing advancements events 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 * 39/45 * 38/44 * 37/43 * (36/42)^6 ~= 0.1695 or about 17%. That's not terribly unlikely.
Yes, I speculated that in the solo event announcement thread after 5 events
I would like to see kabam dilute the odds of each combat possibility back down to 1/3 of the entire pool of events as opposed to such a lions share of events.
Comments
It may have been removed at cavalier+. Reddit post that lower achievement players get class advancement. Someone posted here that this was being removed, during the server meltdown summer 2020. Possible partial accuracy
Randomly select 1 event that hasn't occurred in the last 6 selections. Which basically was a 1/12 shot at the eligible events. There are 6 class advancement events. of the 12.
Assuming the "last 6" were reset when the event changed and that there are still only 18 events, the odds of no class advancement events appearing in the first 12 is roughly .08%.
I don't think it is unwarranted to question if something has changed or if an error is occurring.
Would love for @DNA3000 to check my math here, but something is changed/wrong.
I am cav and no, popping crystals does not score any points for it
I opened 32 Premium Hero shard crystals which are supposed to give 350 points each, got 0
https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/225629/mystic-advancement-premium-shard-crystals-not-awarding-points#latest
However, I suspect @Weaksauce_1 may be onto something. If in fact the combat events now comprmise 36 of all the possibilities instead of six of them, that would imply there are now something like 48 possibilities. In that case, the same calculation above makes the odds of not seeing advancements events 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 * 39/45 * 38/44 * 37/43 * (36/42)^6 ~= 0.1695 or about 17%. That's not terribly unlikely.
https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/1429455#Comment_1429455
This why I referenced something “changed”
I would like to see kabam dilute the odds of each combat possibility back down to 1/3 of the entire pool of events as opposed to such a lions share of events.