Will there ever be a new arena crystal?
vl4ever
Member Posts: 12 ★
Just like the title says, think there will ever be something more than uncollected arena crystal?
1
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Kabam will released an arena crystal for Thronebreaker. It is just a matter of when it will be released.
The announcement for thronebreaker was made at the end of august/September and the question as to when the last 3 parts would be released has been asked several times.. there has been no response from kabam.
I feel they aren’t going to introduce em.. or if they do.. you would need to purchase the sigil to access them.
2k (regular) x5 => 10k (Uncollected) x5 => 50k (Thronebreaker)
So OP saved enough for 13x TB Crystals. lol
Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..
If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
Why don‘t you use the official numbers they gave us? It‘s a 15% Unit chance ... 18% or 22% are still very lucky. Not enough Crystals opened to match the real numbers.
DNA3000 did an earlier analysis, with results for UC that were slightly to the other side (below) that of his Regular Arena crystals, than what video above had as UC being slightly above the Regular ones. While the Regular stats between both his and video were pretty similar.
Video above:
Reg: 36.2 Units per 10x Reg (.181% in video's terminology, from 3540 Reg crystals)
UC: 211.8 Units per 10x UC (.212%, from 1002 UC crystals)
DNA (Dec. 2019):
Reg: 37.6 Units per 10x Reg (.188%, from much less, 603 Reg crystals versus Video)
UC: 166.7 Units per 10x UC (.167%, from close to same amount as video, 900 UC crystals)
DNA had actually tracked which drop of units (the rarer 3x HIGH unit drop amount of 45/225, and the more likely LOW drop amount of 15/75, respectively for Reg/UC). And (assuming the odds for the Hi/Lo split is same in Reg as UC) had actually been more “unlucky” with the breakdown of Hi vs Lo Unit drops during the UC pulls compared to during the Reg crystal pulls.
Might account for his UC Units being little below that of his Reg crystals.
Versus Video above might have had luckier Unit (Hi/Lo) breakdown during UC, so overall Units were to the other side of the Regular crystals.
When adding both large analysis studies together, the difference between UC and Reg is pretty close.
Solar Flare's Video (top) vs @DNA3000 (bottom)
But ... just think about it. Why should Kabam advertise a lower % of Units if it is higher actually? Wouldn‘t the players love Kabam for a better rate? And nobody knows the code and real numbers better than Kabam themselves. Everything else is just speculation.
All those some thousand Crystals are just not enough to be significant. It‘s all inside a normal range, all RNG. You can‘t really proof it anyway. That‘s almost like these „OMG, pulled 3x Ægons 6* in a row.“ topics. XD
I got something like 500 units from 50 regular arena crystals last week.
This week I got just under 200, because it’s random.
Kabam have no reason to lie about the drop rates and to state otherwise is a prof hoff level conspiracy theory.
But joking aside.. you are right.. it is RNG.. and i'm just lucky that in the 2.5 years and 27m bchips openings i've recored i've done much better than the posted drop rates.. I'm definitely not going to complain..
But you are right.. just cause the two examples presented in this thread with millions of bchips being presented with higher yields than is posted, does not mean the numbers presented in game are misleading.. It's just two samples out of many..
Keep in mind the stated odds of 15% is the overall chance that it will be Units. Within that 15%, it can be either the common 15 Unit based pull or the higher 45 Unit based pull (which seems to be about a 11% + 4% split between those, although I'd guess it is actually 10+5 just because those are whole multiple, more logical, percents for a breakdown).
But the 15% odds for a unit pull is a totally different type of value than the 0.18% or 0.21% (0.0018, not 18%) from video which is NOT odds, but rather the average amount of Units you will get from a single Battlechip. Of course it takes either 2000 or 10,000 BChips for a crystal.
So the resulting 0.0018 or 0.0021 mentioned are values that correspond to what fraction of a Unit you can expect per BattcleChip spent.
edit: also thanks for the civil discussion 👍
Out of 1700 UC openings, which corresponds to 17,000,000 BC (10k per crystal) I have recorded 158 "75 unit" drops and 94 "225 unit" drops, for a total of 33,000 units. This implies a unit ratio of 33000/17000000 = 0.00194. That's basically in between the data points measured in the video.
Does random statistical fluctuations explain that difference? It can. The video's "big" data chunk was about 700 UC crystals (~7 million BC). I have 1700; what happens if I only look at 700 crystal "slices" of the data?
These are the rolling unit sums if I looked at 700 crystals of data only, starting with the first seven, then skipping the first batch and looking at the seven after that, and so on. Depending on when I starting counting, the ratio I would have reported could have been anything between 15.3 units per crystal (equal to the ratio of 0.00153) and 22.3 units per crystal (i.e. 0.00223). That's how much the data fluctuates from batch to batch. It is the long term average that trends towards about 19 per crystal (or 1900 per hundred UC crystals), but not even 700 crystals is guaranteed to be close to the average.
I *could* open them in batches of ten and reverse engineer what the drops were to generate that result, but that would mess with a separate analysis I'm doing, namely whether crystal drops are correlated. In other words, are the drops more "streaky" than they ought to be if they were actually random. They don't look it, but you really need to know the exact order of the drops to be able to say.