Will there ever be a new arena crystal?

Just like the title says, think there will ever be something more than uncollected arena crystal?
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Comments

  • Prakhar_82Prakhar_82 Posts: 713 ★★★
    I really don't think we do need any. They are just as fine and there isn't any news of them for a long time.
  • vl4evervl4ever Posts: 6
    I figured. I only asked since I've got about 650k bc saved up
  • vl4evervl4ever Posts: 6
    Oh awesome thanks! @MainRonin
  • GMAX77GMAX77 Posts: 345 ★★★
    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    I don’t think they are going to introduce the arena crystal mentioned above that was supposed to be part of the thronebreaker title.. there are 3 more elements that were said to come with the new title.. new gold crystal arena crystal and new objectives.

    The announcement for thronebreaker was made at the end of august/September and the question as to when the last 3 parts would be released has been asked several times.. there has been no response from kabam.

    I feel they aren’t going to introduce em.. or if they do.. you would need to purchase the sigil to access them.

  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
  • WOLF_LINKWOLF_LINK Posts: 754 ★★★
    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    Yes, that‘s the only real difference. The 5*/6* Punisher instead of 4*/5* ... and therefore it will be 50k each Crystal of course.

    2k (regular) x5 => 10k (Uncollected) x5 => 50k (Thronebreaker)

    So OP saved enough for 13x TB Crystals. lol
  • vl4evervl4ever Posts: 6
    That sounds depressing as hell when you put it like that
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,852 ★★★★★
    edited January 2021

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    edited January 2021

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
  • WOLF_LINKWOLF_LINK Posts: 754 ★★★
    @Doomsfist79
    Why don‘t you use the official numbers they gave us? It‘s a 15% Unit chance ... 18% or 22% are still very lucky. Not enough Crystals opened to match the real numbers.



  • @Doomsfist79 ,
    DNA3000 did an earlier analysis, with results for UC that were slightly to the other side (below) that of his Regular Arena crystals, than what video above had as UC being slightly above the Regular ones. While the Regular stats between both his and video were pretty similar.

    Video above:
    Reg: 36.2 Units per 10x Reg (.181% in video's terminology, from 3540 Reg crystals)
    UC: 211.8 Units per 10x UC (.212%, from 1002 UC crystals)

    DNA (Dec. 2019):
    Reg: 37.6 Units per 10x Reg (.188%, from much less, 603 Reg crystals versus Video)
    UC: 166.7 Units per 10x UC (.167%, from close to same amount as video, 900 UC crystals)

    DNA had actually tracked which drop of units (the rarer 3x HIGH unit drop amount of 45/225, and the more likely LOW drop amount of 15/75, respectively for Reg/UC). And (assuming the odds for the Hi/Lo split is same in Reg as UC) had actually been more “unlucky” with the breakdown of Hi vs Lo Unit drops during the UC pulls compared to during the Reg crystal pulls.
    Might account for his UC Units being little below that of his Reg crystals.

    Versus Video above might have had luckier Unit (Hi/Lo) breakdown during UC, so overall Units were to the other side of the Regular crystals.

    When adding both large analysis studies together, the difference between UC and Reg is pretty close.
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,852 ★★★★★

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis
  • (reference)
    Solar Flare's Video (top) vs @DNA3000 (bottom)




  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis
    Thanks.. I'll have a look later.. just took a quick glimpse just now.. good to see there are other sources of significant openings.. would be cool if there was something like the arena tracking to see even a larger pool and how it evens out over time..
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★

    (reference)
    Solar Flare's Video (top) vs @DNA3000 (bottom)




    Thanks for posting them together.. will be interesting to compare.
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    WOLF_LINK said:

    @Doomsfist79
    Why don‘t you use the official numbers they gave us? It‘s a 15% Unit chance ... 18% or 22% are still very lucky. Not enough Crystals opened to match the real numbers.



    Because the info suggested in game is not what we end up seeing in reality (as more and more info is collected).. take a look at the post SummonerNR made comparing my info with that of DNA3000 from 2019. Both my info and DNA3000 show a different yield than is stated from the images your posted..
  • HieitakuHieitaku Posts: 1,360 ★★★★★
    I'm alright with the regular ones. The improvement I'd really love to see is getting max sig crystals from pulling Punisher.
  • WOLF_LINKWOLF_LINK Posts: 754 ★★★
    @Doomsfist79
    But ... just think about it. Why should Kabam advertise a lower % of Units if it is higher actually? Wouldn‘t the players love Kabam for a better rate? And nobody knows the code and real numbers better than Kabam themselves. Everything else is just speculation.

    All those some thousand Crystals are just not enough to be significant. It‘s all inside a normal range, all RNG. You can‘t really proof it anyway. That‘s almost like these „OMG, pulled 3x Ægons 6* in a row.“ topics. XD
  • Mr_PlatypusMr_Platypus Posts: 2,763 ★★★★★

    WOLF_LINK said:

    @Doomsfist79
    Why don‘t you use the official numbers they gave us? It‘s a 15% Unit chance ... 18% or 22% are still very lucky. Not enough Crystals opened to match the real numbers.



    Because the info suggested in game is not what we end up seeing in reality (as more and more info is collected).. take a look at the post SummonerNR made comparing my info with that of DNA3000 from 2019. Both my info and DNA3000 show a different yield than is stated from the images your posted..
    That’s... how rng works...
    I got something like 500 units from 50 regular arena crystals last week.
    This week I got just under 200, because it’s random.
    Kabam have no reason to lie about the drop rates and to state otherwise is a prof hoff level conspiracy theory.
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    edited January 2021

    WOLF_LINK said:

    @Doomsfist79
    Why don‘t you use the official numbers they gave us? It‘s a 15% Unit chance ... 18% or 22% are still very lucky. Not enough Crystals opened to match the real numbers.



    Because the info suggested in game is not what we end up seeing in reality (as more and more info is collected).. take a look at the post SummonerNR made comparing my info with that of DNA3000 from 2019. Both my info and DNA3000 show a different yield than is stated from the images your posted..
    That’s... how rng works...
    I got something like 500 units from 50 regular arena crystals last week.
    This week I got just under 200, because it’s random.
    Kabam have no reason to lie about the drop rates and to state otherwise is a prof hoff level conspiracy theory.
    Oh gawd.. ok.. you win.. just please don't compare me to him..

    But joking aside.. you are right.. it is RNG.. and i'm just lucky that in the 2.5 years and 27m bchips openings i've recored i've done much better than the posted drop rates.. I'm definitely not going to complain..
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    edited January 2021
    WOLF_LINK said:

    @Doomsfist79
    But ... just think about it. Why should Kabam advertise a lower % of Units if it is higher actually? Wouldn‘t the players love Kabam for a better rate? And nobody knows the code and real numbers better than Kabam themselves. Everything else is just speculation.

    All those some thousand Crystals are just not enough to be significant. It‘s all inside a normal range, all RNG. You can‘t really proof it anyway. That‘s almost like these „OMG, pulled 3x Ægons 6* in a row.“ topics. XD

    I don't know.. why would they be less than forthcoming about anything in the game.. like say the question about a new arena crystal?

    But you are right.. just cause the two examples presented in this thread with millions of bchips being presented with higher yields than is posted, does not mean the numbers presented in game are misleading.. It's just two samples out of many..
  • Wolf and Doom..

    Keep in mind the stated odds of 15% is the overall chance that it will be Units. Within that 15%, it can be either the common 15 Unit based pull or the higher 45 Unit based pull (which seems to be about a 11% + 4% split between those, although I'd guess it is actually 10+5 just because those are whole multiple, more logical, percents for a breakdown).

    But the 15% odds for a unit pull is a totally different type of value than the 0.18% or 0.21% (0.0018, not 18%) from video which is NOT odds, but rather the average amount of Units you will get from a single Battlechip. Of course it takes either 2000 or 10,000 BChips for a crystal.
    So the resulting 0.0018 or 0.0021 mentioned are values that correspond to what fraction of a Unit you can expect per BattcleChip spent.
  • Thicco_ModeThicco_Mode Posts: 8,852 ★★★★★
    edited January 2021

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis
    Thanks.. I'll have a look later.. just took a quick glimpse just now.. good to see there are other sources of significant openings.. would be cool if there was something like the arena tracking to see even a larger pool and how it evens out over time..
    yeah that would be great. even without the analysis , I think it would make sense for them to have the same drop rates but that's just my suspicion

    edit: also thanks for the civil discussion 👍
  • Moot4LifeMoot4Life Posts: 2,132 ★★★★

    WOLF_LINK said:

    @Doomsfist79
    Why don‘t you use the official numbers they gave us? It‘s a 15% Unit chance ... 18% or 22% are still very lucky. Not enough Crystals opened to match the real numbers.



    Because the info suggested in game is not what we end up seeing in reality (as more and more info is collected).. take a look at the post SummonerNR made comparing my info with that of DNA3000 from 2019. Both my info and DNA3000 show a different yield than is stated from the images your posted..
    That’s... how rng works...
    I got something like 500 units from 50 regular arena crystals last week.
    This week I got just under 200, because it’s random.
    Kabam have no reason to lie about the drop rates and to state otherwise is a prof hoff level conspiracy theory.
    Oh gawd.. ok.. you win.. just please don't compare me to him..

    But joking aside.. you are right.. it is RNG.. and i'm just lucky that in the 2.5 years and 27m bchips openings i've recored i've done much better than the posted drop rates.. I'm definitely not going to complain..

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis
    Thanks.. I'll have a look later.. just took a quick glimpse just now.. good to see there are other sources of significant openings.. would be cool if there was something like the arena tracking to see even a larger pool and how it evens out over time..
    edit: also thanks for the civil discussion 👍
    how is indirectly insulting a top 3 (at least) mcoc youtuber considered civil? 🦡
  • GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis
    Thanks.. I'll have a look later.. just took a quick glimpse just now.. good to see there are other sources of significant openings.. would be cool if there was something like the arena tracking to see even a larger pool and how it evens out over time..
    Since the December 2019 post I've been tracking individual UC crystal openings. At the moment I have 1700 Uncollected arena crystals of data tabulated. In that data are 252 unit drops out of 1700 crystals. That's a drop rate of 252/1700 = 14.8%, very close to the 15% drop rate documented and within the margin for error for that sample size.
  • Doomsfist79Doomsfist79 Posts: 922 ★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis
    Thanks.. I'll have a look later.. just took a quick glimpse just now.. good to see there are other sources of significant openings.. would be cool if there was something like the arena tracking to see even a larger pool and how it evens out over time..
    Since the December 2019 post I've been tracking individual UC crystal openings. At the moment I have 1700 Uncollected arena crystals of data tabulated. In that data are 252 unit drops out of 1700 crystals. That's a drop rate of 252/1700 = 14.8%, very close to the 15% drop rate documented and within the margin for error for that sample size.
    Good to know.. I was looking at the amount of units obtained.. not the frequency of obtaining units. But, makes sense that what you are seeing matches up with the in-game numbers.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 15,635 Guardian
    edited February 2021

    Wolf and Doom..

    Keep in mind the stated odds of 15% is the overall chance that it will be Units. Within that 15%, it can be either the common 15 Unit based pull or the higher 45 Unit based pull (which seems to be about a 11% + 4% split between those, although I'd guess it is actually 10+5 just because those are whole multiple, more logical, percents for a breakdown).

    But the 15% odds for a unit pull is a totally different type of value than the 0.18% or 0.21% (0.0018, not 18%) from video which is NOT odds, but rather the average amount of Units you will get from a single Battlechip. Of course it takes either 2000 or 10,000 BChips for a crystal.
    So the resulting 0.0018 or 0.0021 mentioned are values that correspond to what fraction of a Unit you can expect per BattcleChip spent.

    That's correct: technically speaking those values shouldn't be expressed as a percentage, because they aren't really percentages of anything. The 0.18% in the video should be interpreted as 0.0018 units per battlechip (and to be fair the spreadsheet heading calls it a ratio).

    Out of 1700 UC openings, which corresponds to 17,000,000 BC (10k per crystal) I have recorded 158 "75 unit" drops and 94 "225 unit" drops, for a total of 33,000 units. This implies a unit ratio of 33000/17000000 = 0.00194. That's basically in between the data points measured in the video.

    Does random statistical fluctuations explain that difference? It can. The video's "big" data chunk was about 700 UC crystals (~7 million BC). I have 1700; what happens if I only look at 700 crystal "slices" of the data?



    These are the rolling unit sums if I looked at 700 crystals of data only, starting with the first seven, then skipping the first batch and looking at the seven after that, and so on. Depending on when I starting counting, the ratio I would have reported could have been anything between 15.3 units per crystal (equal to the ratio of 0.00153) and 22.3 units per crystal (i.e. 0.00223). That's how much the data fluctuates from batch to batch. It is the long term average that trends towards about 19 per crystal (or 1900 per hundred UC crystals), but not even 700 crystals is guaranteed to be close to the average.
  • DNA3000 said:

    GMAX77 said:

    So as of now, the only major difference would be the potential for 6* Punisher right? I've seen several videos which have shown opening arena crystals and uncollected arena crystals (over the course of time) have very very similar results except for the level of Punishers which can be pulled. If a 6 star is released, I'd like to see a 6 Star Colossus somewhere as well (and of course both would get the buff treatment). We'll see.

    The uncollected has a better unit yield.. not by much.. but over time it adds up.
    that's just not true lol. exact same drop rates with *5 multiplier since it costs 5* as much. I don't see a need for tb since it'll just be more expensive with the same return
    Unit yield from regular is .18% ... unit yield from UC is .22% per million bchips.. I don’t think there is a need for a new crystal either.. however kabam seemed to think there is as they announced there would be a new one.. although it seems they aren’t following through so it’s possible they don’t think there is a need either..

    Also.. here is the source I am using to base my numbers off..


    If you don't mind.. go ahead and post the source you are using to suggest what I am saying isn't true, and then we can compare..
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis
    Thanks.. I'll have a look later.. just took a quick glimpse just now.. good to see there are other sources of significant openings.. would be cool if there was something like the arena tracking to see even a larger pool and how it evens out over time..
    Since the December 2019 post I've been tracking individual UC crystal openings. At the moment I have 1700 Uncollected arena crystals of data tabulated. In that data are 252 unit drops out of 1700 crystals. That's a drop rate of 252/1700 = 14.8%, very close to the 15% drop rate documented and within the margin for error for that sample size.
    Good to know.. I was looking at the amount of units obtained.. not the frequency of obtaining units. But, makes sense that what you are seeing matches up with the in-game numbers.
    I'm probably the only lunatic testing the drop *rate* instead of the drop *yield* because you can't batch open if you're going to do that, you more or less have to open them one at a time, and who's going to open arena crystals one at a time?

    I *could* open them in batches of ten and reverse engineer what the drops were to generate that result, but that would mess with a separate analysis I'm doing, namely whether crystal drops are correlated. In other words, are the drops more "streaky" than they ought to be if they were actually random. They don't look it, but you really need to know the exact order of the drops to be able to say.
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