Using Featured Pools to predict buffs
BitterSteel
Member Posts: 9,264 ★★★★★
There's always lots of talk when a new featured crystal drops, and whether it's a 6* pool or a 5* pool there is always tons of speculation about which champion from those pools are going to be the lucky few selected for future months overhaul/moderate/tune up. But how accurate are these predictions? And how often do these crystals actually predict buffs?
In today's episode, that's what I'm going to look at.
I began by constructing a timeline of when each featured crystal dropped, and when each buff was announced. That meant I could find out, at the time of the crystal dropping, which champions in the pool had already been buffed, and which champions at the time were unbuffed but would go on to get a buff in the future.
I'll begin with the 5* featured:
As you can see, moving left to right we have the year and month of a certain buff, which champions were buffed in that month, the date the crystal dropped, which champions in that pool had been buffed in the past, and which champions in that pool did not have a buff at the time - but were buffed in future. This last column is the most interesting one evidently, so we will mainly focus on that one.
Let's break it down crystal by crystal.
7th of October
This crystal predicted 3 buffs in total. It predicted Angela 5 months later in March, Mr Fantastic 7 months later in May and Guillotine 12 months later in October.
To clarify something here, 12 months is almost definitely too long for her to have been placed in this crystal with the knowledge that her buff was in the works - we know that buffs take a month to a few months to work on, as per Kabam John's QandA. However, it's not impossible that which champions are in featured pools could play a role in being selected for a buff.
12th of January
This crystal predicted 4 buffs. Yellowjacket, terrax and moleman 1 month later in February, and Gamora 8 months later in September.
20th of April
This crystal predicted 3 buffs. Diablo and Ronin 3 months later in July and Nebula 7 months later in November.
27th of July
This crystal predicted 1 buff. Thor Ragnarok 3 months later in October.
2nd November
As no buffs have been announced yet since the crystal dropped, we don't know who will be predicted from here.
Overview
Not counting the last crystal, since it dropped last week, this crystal predicted 11 buffs in 4 crystals, or 2.75 buffs per crystal. The timeline for the buffs were:
1 month: 3
3 months: 3
5 months: 1
7 months: 2
8 months: 1
12 months: 1
So usually, there are about 3 buffs from each 5* featured pool that can be predicted. And 2 of those buffs will likely be in the next 7 months.
But how does the 6* featured crystal stack up? Is that more reliable for predicting?
It turns out, no probably not. This really surprised me when I put it together, like, 6* are way more important than 5* so doesn't it stand to reason that a six star crystal would be better at predicting future buffs. Especially since you might pull those bad champions and hope for a buff if you miss in the featured crystal. But apparently not.
As you can see, this sheet looks a little bare compared to the 5* featured one. And we can pretty much discount Mr Fantastic unfortunately, since he was actually predicted in October by the 5* featured pool, then he was in the 6* featured in December, then buffed in May.
In any case, breaking it down crystal by crystal.
15th of December
This crystal predicted 1 buff, Mr Fantastic 5 months later in May (as mentioned, kind of predicted already)
23rd of March
This crystal predicted 2 buffs, Crossbones and Howard the duck 1 month later in April.
29th of June
This crystal predicted 0 buffs. However, we are 6 months down the line from June now, and there have been a couple predictions 7 or 8 months later. So if I had to guess, I'd predict someone from this pool in the next couple of months.
6th of October
This crystal predicted 2 buffs, Karnak and Nebula 1 month later in November.
Overview
This crystal predicted 5 buffs in 4 crystals, or 1.25 buffs per crystal. The timeline for the buffs were:
1 month: 4
5 months: 1
This crystal really just doesn't have enough proper data to make an accurate prediction, but the best guess is that if a crystal drops it has a 50/50 chance that there will be a buff in the next month.
Conclusion
The 6* featured isn't the best source of accurate predictions. 5 buffs compared to the 11 buffs of the 5* featured crystal, it just seems like the 5* pool is a better way to guess future buffs. However, seeing as we only get 2 buffs a month, and 1 crystal every 3 months this is by no means enough data to make any sort of accurate conclusion. I am in no way saying this conclusively, I just wanted to have a look at the patterns and see if anything could be made of it.
And after he says all that, makes a prediction anyway....
Predictions
Because they're fun, and I want to see if I'm right. I'm gonna make a few predictions based on what I've seen.
I think that for the 6* featured, we will see one (or maybe, just maybe 2) champ(s) from the 29th of June pool get a buff in the next few months. More specifically, that's Deadpool X Force, OG Hulk or Mr Sinister. Black Widow and Joe Fixit are other champions in that pool who deserve buffs, but OG Widow is less common, and Joe Fixit lost the community vote, so I don't think it'll be them.
I also think that in the next featured 6* pool in January, we may see a couple champs who will get buffed in February. Obviously we don't know the pool yet so can't comment.
For the 5* featured, I think the 27th of July crystal still has a couple buffs to reveal themselves. The candidates here are Cyclops Blue team, Mordo, Rogue, Sentry and The Champion. Two unlikely possibilities are Sparky and Vision AoU, but Sparky is pretty good now even if a tune up would be awesome for him, and AoU is less available. If I had to guess, I would say Rogue and Sentry are the two here, and I think if this crystal has more buffs to show, odds are they'll show up between now and March next year.
And lastly, this months 5* featured hasn't had any buffs predicted yet. So I believe there's 3 lurking in here. The champs we are looking at are Drax, OG Hulk, Proxima, Luke Cage, Green Goblin, Mephisto, Rocket and Taskmaster. There are a lot of other options here, so narrowing it down is hard. The ones I think are less likely for buffs are Joe Fixit (as mentioned before), Storm OG (due to horseman) and squirrel girl, I just can't see Kabam buffing her right now.
Of the champs I mentioned first, I think OG Hulk has a really good chance of being buffed in the next few months. Kabam John in his QandA said they were looking into getting new art for "True OG Champs", and since Hulk was in the 6* featured as well, I feel like he is a pretty good guess. As for the other two, your guess is genuinely as good as mine. Basing this off nothing other than that, I feel like Proxima would get an amazing tune up or moderate, and Drax has to be in line for an overhaul at some point. And again, I expect we would see these buffs by (early) June next year.
Clearly, this is all operating with the proviso that the decision of who to put in the pool is at all based on who John and Dorosh decide to buff, if not, then this is a pretty fruitless enterprise. In any case, what do you think based on these pools of champs? Any predictions you guys want to throw in to the ring?
In today's episode, that's what I'm going to look at.
I began by constructing a timeline of when each featured crystal dropped, and when each buff was announced. That meant I could find out, at the time of the crystal dropping, which champions in the pool had already been buffed, and which champions at the time were unbuffed but would go on to get a buff in the future.
I'll begin with the 5* featured:
As you can see, moving left to right we have the year and month of a certain buff, which champions were buffed in that month, the date the crystal dropped, which champions in that pool had been buffed in the past, and which champions in that pool did not have a buff at the time - but were buffed in future. This last column is the most interesting one evidently, so we will mainly focus on that one.
Let's break it down crystal by crystal.
7th of October
This crystal predicted 3 buffs in total. It predicted Angela 5 months later in March, Mr Fantastic 7 months later in May and Guillotine 12 months later in October.
To clarify something here, 12 months is almost definitely too long for her to have been placed in this crystal with the knowledge that her buff was in the works - we know that buffs take a month to a few months to work on, as per Kabam John's QandA. However, it's not impossible that which champions are in featured pools could play a role in being selected for a buff.
12th of January
This crystal predicted 4 buffs. Yellowjacket, terrax and moleman 1 month later in February, and Gamora 8 months later in September.
20th of April
This crystal predicted 3 buffs. Diablo and Ronin 3 months later in July and Nebula 7 months later in November.
27th of July
This crystal predicted 1 buff. Thor Ragnarok 3 months later in October.
2nd November
As no buffs have been announced yet since the crystal dropped, we don't know who will be predicted from here.
Overview
Not counting the last crystal, since it dropped last week, this crystal predicted 11 buffs in 4 crystals, or 2.75 buffs per crystal. The timeline for the buffs were:
1 month: 3
3 months: 3
5 months: 1
7 months: 2
8 months: 1
12 months: 1
So usually, there are about 3 buffs from each 5* featured pool that can be predicted. And 2 of those buffs will likely be in the next 7 months.
But how does the 6* featured crystal stack up? Is that more reliable for predicting?
It turns out, no probably not. This really surprised me when I put it together, like, 6* are way more important than 5* so doesn't it stand to reason that a six star crystal would be better at predicting future buffs. Especially since you might pull those bad champions and hope for a buff if you miss in the featured crystal. But apparently not.
As you can see, this sheet looks a little bare compared to the 5* featured one. And we can pretty much discount Mr Fantastic unfortunately, since he was actually predicted in October by the 5* featured pool, then he was in the 6* featured in December, then buffed in May.
In any case, breaking it down crystal by crystal.
15th of December
This crystal predicted 1 buff, Mr Fantastic 5 months later in May (as mentioned, kind of predicted already)
23rd of March
This crystal predicted 2 buffs, Crossbones and Howard the duck 1 month later in April.
29th of June
This crystal predicted 0 buffs. However, we are 6 months down the line from June now, and there have been a couple predictions 7 or 8 months later. So if I had to guess, I'd predict someone from this pool in the next couple of months.
6th of October
This crystal predicted 2 buffs, Karnak and Nebula 1 month later in November.
Overview
This crystal predicted 5 buffs in 4 crystals, or 1.25 buffs per crystal. The timeline for the buffs were:
1 month: 4
5 months: 1
This crystal really just doesn't have enough proper data to make an accurate prediction, but the best guess is that if a crystal drops it has a 50/50 chance that there will be a buff in the next month.
Conclusion
The 6* featured isn't the best source of accurate predictions. 5 buffs compared to the 11 buffs of the 5* featured crystal, it just seems like the 5* pool is a better way to guess future buffs. However, seeing as we only get 2 buffs a month, and 1 crystal every 3 months this is by no means enough data to make any sort of accurate conclusion. I am in no way saying this conclusively, I just wanted to have a look at the patterns and see if anything could be made of it.
And after he says all that, makes a prediction anyway....
Predictions
Because they're fun, and I want to see if I'm right. I'm gonna make a few predictions based on what I've seen.
I think that for the 6* featured, we will see one (or maybe, just maybe 2) champ(s) from the 29th of June pool get a buff in the next few months. More specifically, that's Deadpool X Force, OG Hulk or Mr Sinister. Black Widow and Joe Fixit are other champions in that pool who deserve buffs, but OG Widow is less common, and Joe Fixit lost the community vote, so I don't think it'll be them.
I also think that in the next featured 6* pool in January, we may see a couple champs who will get buffed in February. Obviously we don't know the pool yet so can't comment.
For the 5* featured, I think the 27th of July crystal still has a couple buffs to reveal themselves. The candidates here are Cyclops Blue team, Mordo, Rogue, Sentry and The Champion. Two unlikely possibilities are Sparky and Vision AoU, but Sparky is pretty good now even if a tune up would be awesome for him, and AoU is less available. If I had to guess, I would say Rogue and Sentry are the two here, and I think if this crystal has more buffs to show, odds are they'll show up between now and March next year.
And lastly, this months 5* featured hasn't had any buffs predicted yet. So I believe there's 3 lurking in here. The champs we are looking at are Drax, OG Hulk, Proxima, Luke Cage, Green Goblin, Mephisto, Rocket and Taskmaster. There are a lot of other options here, so narrowing it down is hard. The ones I think are less likely for buffs are Joe Fixit (as mentioned before), Storm OG (due to horseman) and squirrel girl, I just can't see Kabam buffing her right now.
Of the champs I mentioned first, I think OG Hulk has a really good chance of being buffed in the next few months. Kabam John in his QandA said they were looking into getting new art for "True OG Champs", and since Hulk was in the 6* featured as well, I feel like he is a pretty good guess. As for the other two, your guess is genuinely as good as mine. Basing this off nothing other than that, I feel like Proxima would get an amazing tune up or moderate, and Drax has to be in line for an overhaul at some point. And again, I expect we would see these buffs by (early) June next year.
Clearly, this is all operating with the proviso that the decision of who to put in the pool is at all based on who John and Dorosh decide to buff, if not, then this is a pretty fruitless enterprise. In any case, what do you think based on these pools of champs? Any predictions you guys want to throw in to the ring?
31
Comments
It was interesting to see the new featured crystal and I believe three of Taskmaster, Moon Knight, Drax, Rocket Raccoon and Green Goblin will be the imminent buffs between Dec and Jan.
Maaaybe Prox too but that’s a far shout. Unless it’s a-la-Gamora and Kabam are swamped for December.
Also, Luke Cage has already been buffed. But I wouldn’t say no to another one.
Lastly, what does new art for True OG champs mean?
This is the response I’m talking about, my interpretation is that they’re getting new animations or VFX for OG characters like Iron Man, Cap and hopefully Hulk. And since it’s been 5 months since Hulk was in his featured, hopefully that work is going on right now.
Also, @Kabam John if you wanna confirm or deny any predictions feel free
Of the champions Rookiee mentioned, I’d put money on Proxima if I was to continue in the same vein; better BF and simultaneous completion of missions is literally all she needs to bring her into the meta for the mainstream, it would also make sense thematically as we’ve just had Gamora V2 and Nebula. The linked rework could suggest Rocket if there actually was a theme to their efforts as opposed to just picking champion X ‘cause they need work and fancy doing them that month.
Star Lord and Drax could be a cool double buff month, star Lord with a moderate and drax with overhaul!
One can interpret it as intentional to sweeten the pool and entice players to go for it, that otherwise wouldn't risk it. Provided they think that all the buffs were actually good, that is.
Cool post, thanks for sharing!
When Variant 7 (villains) was announced, I think a few days, or weeks later Terrax, YJ, Moleman and Kingpin were all buffed.
When variant 8 was announced (mercs), a few days or weeks later Nebula and Karnak were both announced for buffs.
So if we do get a variant 9 fairly soon, I can definitely see it predicting some buffs.
The event quest after Deadpoolooza was Kampala’s first day. But there has also been a Christmas special Rocket and Groot event before the deadpool one which has been missed out. I feel like that will likely not come next, as variant 9 coming in a month and a half is unlikely.
I think the Kamala variant (assuming that’s next) could have a female champ boost. There are bosses like Ms Marvel Carol Danvers and X23. Plus, Kamala was introduced during the Women of Power event. So I feel like some female champs of the battle realm will get buffs around the time of variant 9
And 6* had 22 in 4 crystals. Or 5.5 per Crystal.
Maybe 5* is meant to predict future, and 6* is meant to show off previous.
I have a nasty habit of pulling 6* drax, I really hope this happens.
Personally I think they just put names into a hat and pull a couple out and then thats who's getting buffed.
Do you remember that absolutely legendary 6* featured, the one that had CGR, Apoc, Prof X, iHulk, Falcon, Ghost, Mr F, and other top notch champs?I think you refer it as the Dec 15th one. It was unusually good because out of 23 champs, only two were really bad memes, the rest were at least good/usable.
Well I have theory of why it was this good, and it's relevant because if my theory is right, then it means that on Jan 11th ( when the next 6* featured comes) we'll have another legendarily good featured coming our way.
Here's why:
The crystal in question had only 5 new champs ( ProfX, Apoc, CGR, Roblin and iHulk). The reason for this was that on December 2021 there was only one new champ (Spiderham) so they made it so the next featured crystal would have 6 new champs again, so the 23 of March one had IBomb, Spiderham, Jubilee, Stryfe, Psychoman and Skrull.
So my theory is that the reason why the CGR one was so good is because they added a sought after champ such as Ghost to compensate for that 6th missing featured champ. Considering that normally all featured crystals have at least one god tier besides the featured champs, they doubled down on this compensation by adding so many other great champs such as Elsa, DragonMan, P2099, Falcon, Mr. F. ( who was already great pre-buff), SpiderGwen, etc.... just to make the crystal more attractive due to its missing 6th new champ.
So, what if Dec 2022 also brings us only 1 new champ again? If I remember well, the rationale for only one new champ on Dec had to do with the holidays interfering with new champ testing/QA. This could happen again. If it does, and they repeat their past pattern with that CGR crystal, then we will have:
Nimrod, Kitty, Knull, Antivenom, Sersi and ... one extra beyond god tier champ to compensate for no new 6th champ. Wishful thinking I'm hoping for Doom, Ultron or NF! A guy can only dream. If on top of that they throw in some demi-god champs like say, for example Sunspot, Thing and Blade or similar, then the deal's sealed.
Regardless, even if I am completely wrong in this theory I still think that the next Jan 11th featured is already shaping up to be waaay better than the current one. Why you say? Well because ALL featured champs on it are already considered demi-god/godlike tier. On the current one, yeah sure of course I would love Herc and Peni, War Machine (and Spidey 2099) on a distant 4th place. The rest of the good ones? Already have them as 5/65 high sig, and they are champs that do not really need R3 in order to do better what they can already do at 5/65.
So, that's why I haven't spent a single shard on the current featured. Here's to hoping that my theory is right and my shard hoarding will pay off better dividends come Jan 11th. Fingers crossed.
Dragon Man
Prof X
Apoc
Red Goblin
CGR
I-Hulk
I agree Mr Fantastic was probably just one of those happenstance predictions, especially since he was already predicted by the 5* featured, but I think there's a pretty strong chance at the moment that 6* featured can predict short term buffs
I hadn't considered the Hawkeye buff, since there had already been 3 buffs from that pool. But I had actually ruled Joe out, because I felt that Ant Man would likely get a buff before him since he won the buff vote alongside Guilly. However, I was right about the June 29th featured predicting a buff, I just ruled out the wrong champion!
So compare to your totals, using 18 per crystal as a baseline. Are you seeing something significantly higher than a third of champs in the crystal being buffed?
This math gets easier over time of we make a few assumptions. First, let’s say champs don’t get re-buffed though it happened a few times. Second, as we spend more time with the two monthly buffs, the champion pool for buff candidates actually stays the same size. Two champs get buffed per month. Two new champs get added and eventually become basic champs.
Find your basic pool total. Remove buffed champs. Use that as your baseline and compare. I’m about to start work but I may circle back.
Hyperion, Dragon Man, Claire and Hit monkey all seem unlikely for buffs. That leaves 11 champions who could get buffs. But some more likely than others.
This pool has the most potential buff champs since I’ve started keeping track in September 2020, and also the fewest already buffed champs since that time. I think we could see 2, or maybe at a push, 3 buffs from here.
I feel like Emma, Doc Oc, Voodoo and wasp are the sort of champ on the cusp of maybe being eligible for buffs, similar to Ronin or mr fantastic. So I’ll go with them as less likely.
Cable has his Apoc synergy, so regrettably isn’t likely to get a buff. I feel Ghost Rider and Voodoo (again) as well are new champions as 6* so likely won’t get buffs. Old man Logan is a tricky one, he’s already been buffed, but that was before the program and so had ebony maw and gamora so we can’t rule him out entirely.
That leaves us with Old Man Logan, Abomination, Squirrel Girl, TaskMaster and Vision AoU as our most likely candidates.
It’s hard to narrow it down from the last 5, while I’m tempted not to say Vision AoU because he’s a relatively new champ to the 6* Pool, he’s actually been in 4 featured pools in the last year. And besides, War Machine was an incredibly rare champ (not in the 5* basic and only recently in the 6*) and still got buffed.
But then TaskMaster, Squirrel Girl AND old man Logan are in both the 5* and 6* featured crystals currently, and that feels strong.
There have however, been a lot of skill buffs, 11 in total with the next highest being 7 tech champs. So I’m gonna say they’re ruling out Squirrel girl for some balance. OML just doesn’t feel as likely with his buff, while Gamora and Maw were buffed too, OML isn’t at the same level they were. While it doesn’t rule him out, I just feel it’s a little less likely so I’m gonna use that for my predictions.
I feel like TaskMaster, Vision AoU and Abomination are our predicted buffs. One tune up, and a couple overhauls. Hopefully we see them in February!