**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Options
Paragon Crystal Drop Rate Sus
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
You are always going to have people who won't believe them no matter what they post. People either believe them, or they don't. Those who don't are simply looking for confirmation bias, and there's scarce little you can to to convince them otherwise.
Sorry.
/s
For example if I post and ask for people to volunteer I may get a larger proportion of people who are frustrated (posting on the forums as we have just seen lol) and wanting to share their bad luck with me and end up with a lot of data sets at 0/200 for example which would not be accurate. Equally I might get mainly people who get lucky maybe getting 1 7 star from 10 or 2 from 30 or something and end up with a higher drop rate than expected.
So basically I could not be sure that the data I used was actually representative of the mean. And I don't want to accuse Kabam of lower drop rates than stated when there may be a bias, or vice versa. Hence the best way by far to experimentally verify these drop rates is for kabam to release the data.
I've pulled 2 out of less than 120 opened.
I don't know what Last Thursdayism is. I only know about 2nd Fridayism and 19th Mondayisms.
Ive never heard of Occam's Razor but I own Bic and Harry's and trust they are good razors.
You can see grass is green. Officials have told you grass is green. You don't question whether grass is green. Yet there are people out there that will tell you grass is green because you're conditioned to believe it's green. But you still, without a doubt believe it's green.
Somehow, even though drop rates are displayed for you to see what they are and no matter the data that we've seen over the years since they have been displayed, you still can't say those rates are correct or incorrect but you're in the middle because..... Reasons?
Firstly, your grass is green analogy is not at all representative of our discussion. That is a fact we can verify, no one needs to tell me that this is the case for me to believe that it is true. Go look up my example which is much more indicative of what we are debating which is basically how do we know the drop rates are correct? And basically we cannot. There is no way to prove they are correct and no way to prove they are incorrect. The best we can do is get a non biased sample and then say there is an X% chance the drop rates are correct within a certain boundary. This is called a binomial distribution. Go look it up and see for yourself.
Secondly, you have not addressed any of my previous points and simply ignored them and hit disagree. What about when you said probability has nothing to do with opening crystals and I responded to that and you ignored it. Same with my valid point of saying that just because there is no way to disprove something, doesn't mean that you should believe it. And there are examples of this all over the place as I illustrated earlier but you failed to respond to. Your grass example does not make sense at all because I can prove that grass is not red or blue or whatever. It's simply a completely different argument and not at all what representative of what I am saying.
Finally, we can both agree that the drop rates on the crystal claim there is a 1% chance of getting a 7 star. Now I am not saying that the chance of this happening is any more than 1% or any less than 1%. All I am simply saying is that we cannot know if they are correct. We can do estimations ourselves but they maybe be subject to biases as I explained earlier and we may end up with a higher or lower estimated drop rate. It's entirely plausible that we end up with a 0.8% or 1.1% drop rate for example. ALL I AM SAYING is that to get the most accurate estimate kabam themselves would have to release the data and we could calculate the percentage chance someone got a 7 star. It may well be 1% and that's fine.
I've explained myself well enough for most intelligent people to comprehend my arguments, meanwhile you simply ignore my points and also say ludicrous things and seem not to understand the importance of maths and probability when opening crystals. The crux of your point is that kabam have given us probabilities and there is no way for us to prove them wrong, therefore we must believe them. I am simply explaining to you the fallacy of that argument.
Why am I not a flat earther? Because I can disprove that the earth is flat. And in fact many experiments that flat earthers have used to try and prove the earth is flat have irrefutably proved just the opposite! What we are discussing is probability which is completely different. There is no range of results you can get here. The only result is that the earth is not flat.
Thus this flat earth or grass analogy is absolutely not relevant to my point at all. Demonzfyre has failed to say anything of any real significance to our discussion, simply citing incorrect examples and making assumptions that aren't true, such as him saying I am saying Kabam's drop rates are wrong which is NOT true and I have no said anything even close to that once!
There is no "claiming" drop rates are 1% for a 7*. Those ARE the drop rates until someone can prove they aren't. End of story.
As stated in this thread and many, many times in the past, Kabam isn't going to risk getting sued by anyone in the community or risk getting their game removed from the Play Store or Apple App store by posting drop rates and and then changing them in the background. It's just stupid to even think that would be something that's an option.
Just post the official screenshot of RNG and Drop rate. People stop responding after reading it. I still don't know where to find it else I would post it.
Does that mean it does not exist?
Maybe... Maybe not
But we will never know unless we actually see life Outside Earth
Similarly people will never know if the Crystals are actually rigged or not unless Kabam themselves confirms it or shows how the system generates which champion we will receive
It's impossible to prove that temperature of Sun is what scientists say it is because we will die before measuring it ourselves
If you won't believe they are what Kabam says they are, why would you believe that data they provide?
Contradiction must be your middle name.
Good lord... You WOULD be right if Kabam verbally tells you that drop rates are "X". Then you could say you have doubt they aren't.
Kabam posting the drop rates is them CONFIRMING those drop rates. They are not legally liable if they are .000001% off.
You are the same guy who said that the person should see what Kabam represented on the side panel before buying the deal and not believe what was advertised in "written format"
So prove that the system actually generates the number randomly and it's not decided what champion you would pull before you buy the crystal
I am not saying that the droprates are incorrect but just because it's written does not mean it's correct
It's a futile time wasting task to discuss this topic as it will never end unless and until Kabam either shows us how the crystal system works or gives us the data about all the crystals opened till that particular point of time and we figure out the droprates ourselves
The first alternative will probably result in development of mods which will be able to twist the drop rates
The second alternative is lowkey impossible to achieve as almost a quintillion number of crystals have been opened till now in the past 8-9 years of the game